RSS Sophisticated Prediction Contest: European Cups 2024-2025, Knockout Round

[Futbolmetrix]

Add your entries to the spreadsheets below

Champions League:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12tPNpksfBbcR7GbW6XPDQQsbl3GG30nV_s-4SrciS1s/edit?usp=sharing


Europa League:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18nUMqdeeodKpPdzG3s8h3VFcq4q8yG01XSVcquscmdQ/edit?usp=sharing

[I think I have imposed the correct restrictions implied by the draw,
but please check in case I have missed something]

[Futbolmetrix]

Post by Futbolmetrix
Add your entries to the spreadsheets below
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12tPNpksfBbcR7GbW6XPDQQsbl3GG30nV_s-4SrciS1s/edit?usp=sharing

My human entry:

Futbolmetrix
P_R32 P_R16 P_QF P_SF P_LF P_WF Total
Brest 0.8 0.15 0.04 0.005 0.004 0.001 1 OK
Paris Saint-Germain 0.2 0.5 0.152 0.08 0.038 0.03 1 OK
1
OK
Monaco 0.55 0.38 0.05 0.01 0.0075 0.0025 1 OK
Benfica 0.45 0.38 0.0925 0.05 0.0175 0.01 1 OK
1
OK
Barcelona 0 0.32 0.32 0.145 0.09 0.125 1 OK
Liverpool 0 0.27 0.27 0.18 0.13 0.15 1 OK
2
OK
Club Brugge 0.75 0.19 0.04 0.01 0.007 0.003 1 OK
Atalanta 0.25 0.4 0.2 0.104 0.026 0.02 1 OK
1
OK
Sporting CP 0.55 0.25 0.155 0.03 0.01 0.005 1 OK
Borussia Dortmund 0.45 0.3 0.175 0.045 0.02 0.01 1 OK
1
OK
Lille 0 0.44 0.3825 0.13 0.0275 0.02 1 OK
Aston Villa 0 0.42 0.3825 0.15 0.0275 0.02 1 OK
2
OK
Manchester City 0.53 0.18 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.08 1 OK
Real Madrid 0.47 0.19 0.1 0.08 0.07 0.09 1 OK
1
OK
Celtic 0.8 0.15 0.04 0.007 0.002 0.001 1 OK
Bayern Munich 0.2 0.3 0.22 0.1105 0.08 0.0895 1 OK
1
OK
Atletico Madrid 0 0.59 0.203 0.112 0.05 0.045 1 OK
Bayer Leverkusen 0 0.59 0.203 0.112 0.05 0.045 1 OK
2
OK
Juventus 0.43 0.35 0.11 0.064 0.03 0.016 1 OK
PSV Eindhoven 0.57 0.34 0.06 0.02 0.006 0.004 1 OK
1
OK
Feyenoord 0.57 0.34 0.06 0.02 0.007 0.003 1 OK
Milan 0.43 0.35 0.11 0.065 0.025 0.02 1 OK
1
OK
Arsenal 0 0.32 0.2725 0.21 0.0975 0.1 1 OK
Inter 0 0.3 0.282 0.1905 0.1175 0.11 1 OK
2
OK
8 8 4 2 1 1 24
OK OK OK OK OK OK OK

[MH]

Post by Futbolmetrix
Add your entries to the spreadsheets below
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/
d/12tPNpksfBbcR7GbW6XPDQQsbl3GG30nV_s-4SrciS1s/edit?usp=sharing
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/
d/18nUMqdeeodKpPdzG3s8h3VFcq4q8yG01XSVcquscmdQ/edit?usp=sharing
[I think I have imposed the correct restrictions implied by the draw,
but please check in case I have missed something]

I have uploaded my CL one. Hope it is saved and according to the rules.

[Futbolmetrix]

Post by MH

Post by Futbolmetrix
Add your entries to the spreadsheets below
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/
d/12tPNpksfBbcR7GbW6XPDQQsbl3GG30nV_s-4SrciS1s/edit?usp=sharing
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/
d/18nUMqdeeodKpPdzG3s8h3VFcq4q8yG01XSVcquscmdQ/edit?usp=sharing
[I think I have imposed the correct restrictions implied by the draw,
but please check in case I have missed something]

I have uploaded my CL one. Hope it is saved and according to the rules.

Yes, loos good.
Entries so far:

UCL:
Aggie
Futbolmetrix
MH

UEL:
Aggie
MH (*) [I take it this is a preliminary entry, as it is identical to
Aggie]

[MH]

Post by Futbolmetrix

Post by Futbolmetrix
Add your entries to the spreadsheets below
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/
d/12tPNpksfBbcR7GbW6XPDQQsbl3GG30nV_s-4SrciS1s/edit?usp=sharing
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/
d/18nUMqdeeodKpPdzG3s8h3VFcq4q8yG01XSVcquscmdQ/edit?usp=sharing
[I think I have imposed the correct restrictions implied by the draw,
but please check in case I have missed something]

I have uploaded my CL one.  Hope it is saved and according to the rules.

Yes, loos good.
Aggie
Futbolmetrix
MH
Aggie
MH (*) [I take it this is a preliminary entry, as it is identical to
Aggie]

Yes, I duplicated aggie and renamed it, but did not enter my predictions
yet.

[Futbolmetrix]

Post by Futbolmetrix
Aggie
Futbolmetrix
MH

Jesus
Werner

Bots coming soon, I had to retool the code to adjust to the new formula


EL:
Aggie
MH (*)

[MH]

Post by Futbolmetrix

Post by Futbolmetrix
Aggie
Futbolmetrix
MH

Jesus
Werner
Bots coming soon, I had to retool the code to adjust to the new formula
Aggie
MH (*)

My EL one now entered and presumably saved.

[Futbolmetrix]

Post by Futbolmetrix

Post by Futbolmetrix
Aggie
Futbolmetrix
MH

Jesus
Werner
Bots coming soon, I had to retool the code to adjust to the new formula

ClubElo and TransferMarkt predictions in (made before the deadline).

I'm still not sure there aren't additional restrictions that one should
impose on the probabilities (the draw is pretty set), but we'll let it
go.

[Futbolmetrix]

Post by Futbolmetrix

Post by Futbolmetrix

Post by Futbolmetrix
Aggie
Futbolmetrix
MH

Jesus
Werner
Bots coming soon, I had to retool the code to adjust to the new formula

ClubElo and TransferMarkt predictions in (made before the deadline).
I'm still not sure there aren't additional restrictions that one should
impose on the probabilities (the draw is pretty set), but we'll let it
go.

Ugh, yes there are. The top 12 teams in the spreadsheet are in fact in
the "top half of the draw", and can not meet any of the teams in the
bottom half of the spreadsheet before the semifinals. The sum of p_qf
for the 12 teams in each half of the draw must be exactly equal to 2.

I say we keep things as is for the UCL, but you are welcome to submit a
revised spreadsheet for the Europa League. Or just ignore the additional
restriction and let the bots enjoy their massive advantage...

[Futbolmetrix]

Post by Futbolmetrix
I say we keep things as is for the UCL, but you are welcome to submit a
revised spreadsheet for the Europa League. Or just ignore the additional
restriction and let the bots enjoy their massive advantage...

I have modified the UEL sheet. Now cells D26 and D60 will warn you that
they "should be = 2", but I will accept entries even when that condition
is not satisfied.

UEL entries so far
------------------
Aggie
MH
Jesus
ClubElo(by Futbolmetrix), in progress
TransferMarkt(by Futbolmetrix), in progress

Working on my human entry

[Jesus Petry]

Post by Futbolmetrix

Post by Futbolmetrix
I say we keep things as is for the UCL, but you are welcome to submit a
revised spreadsheet for the Europa League. Or just ignore the additional
restriction and let the bots enjoy their massive advantage...

I have modified the UEL sheet. Now cells D26 and D60 will warn you that
they "should be = 2", but I will accept entries even when that condition
is not satisfied.
UEL entries so far
------------------
Aggie
MH
Jesus
ClubElo(by Futbolmetrix), in progress
TransferMarkt(by Futbolmetrix), in progress
Working on my human entry

My UEL entry was adjusted accordingly. No hope for my UCL entry
though, which was left with 2.2 on the top half and 1.8 on the bottom.

Tchau!
Jesus Petry

[Futbolmetrix]

Post by Futbolmetrix

Post by Futbolmetrix
I say we keep things as is for the UCL, but you are welcome to submit a
revised spreadsheet for the Europa League. Or just ignore the additional
restriction and let the bots enjoy their massive advantage...

I have modified the UEL sheet. Now cells D26 and D60 will warn you that
they "should be = 2", but I will accept entries even when that condition
is not satisfied.
UEL entries so far
------------------
Aggie
MH
Jesus
ClubElo(by Futbolmetrix), in progress
TransferMarkt(by Futbolmetrix), in progress
Working on my human entry

Managed to get it in before deadline.


UEL enries:
Aggie
Jesus
MH
Werner
ClebElo (by Futbolmetrix)
Transfermarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
Futbolmetrix
Collective Consciousness (to be added)

[Werner Pichler]

Post by Futbolmetrix

Post by Futbolmetrix

Post by Futbolmetrix

Post by Futbolmetrix
Aggie
Futbolmetrix
MH

Jesus
Werner
Bots coming soon, I had to retool the code to adjust to the new formula

ClubElo and TransferMarkt predictions in (made before the deadline).
I'm still not sure there aren't additional restrictions that one should
impose on the probabilities (the draw is pretty set), but we'll let it
go.

Ugh, yes there are. The top 12 teams in the spreadsheet are in fact in
the "top half of the draw", and can not meet any of the teams in the
bottom half of the spreadsheet before the semifinals. The sum of p_qf
for the 12 teams in each half of the draw must be exactly equal to 2.

Is that so? I thought e.g. it's the two uppermost pairs PSG/Brest and
Monaco/Benfica that should not be able to meet before the final.
But PSG/Brest can meet one of Lille/Aston Villa from the bottom half.

Ciao,
Werner

Post by Futbolmetrix
I say we keep things as is for the UCL, but you are welcome to submit a
revised spreadsheet for the Europa League. Or just ignore the additional
restriction and let the bots enjoy their massive advantage...

[Futbolmetrix]

Post by Werner Pichler
Is that so? I thought e.g. it's the two uppermost pairs PSG/Brest and
Monaco/Benfica that should not be able to meet before the final.
But PSG/Brest can meet one of Lille/Aston Villa from the bottom half.

The semifinals cross, but the quarterfinals do not. There will be
exactly two quarterfinalists out of (BRE-PSG, MON-BEN, BAR, LIV and
BRU-ATA, SPO-DOR, AVL and LIL). That means that, for example, Real
Madrid cannot meet Barcelona before the semifinal.

[Werner Pichler]

Post by Futbolmetrix

Post by Werner Pichler
Is that so? I thought e.g. it's the two uppermost pairs PSG/Brest and
Monaco/Benfica that should not be able to meet before the final.
But PSG/Brest can meet one of Lille/Aston Villa from the bottom half.

The semifinals cross, but the quarterfinals do not. There will be
exactly two quarterfinalists out of (BRE-PSG, MON-BEN, BAR, LIV and
BRU-ATA, SPO-DOR, AVL and LIL). That means that, for example, Real
Madrid cannot meet Barcelona before the semifinal.

Right. Well, I got 2.0586 for the upper half and 1.9414 for the lower,
so that doesn't look to egregious. Michael even has 1.994 and 2.006.

I can't vouch for any other human entries though... ;-)


Ciao,
Werner

[Futbolmetrix]

Post by Werner Pichler

Post by Futbolmetrix

Post by Werner Pichler
Is that so? I thought e.g. it's the two uppermost pairs PSG/Brest and
Monaco/Benfica that should not be able to meet before the final.
But PSG/Brest can meet one of Lille/Aston Villa from the bottom half.

The semifinals cross, but the quarterfinals do not. There will be
exactly two quarterfinalists out of (BRE-PSG, MON-BEN, BAR, LIV and
BRU-ATA, SPO-DOR, AVL and LIL). That means that, for example, Real
Madrid cannot meet Barcelona before the semifinal.

Right. Well, I got 2.0586 for the upper half and 1.9414 for the lower,
so that doesn't look to egregious. Michael even has 1.994 and 2.006.
I can't vouch for any other human entries though... ;-)

2.2595 and 1.7405 here. Sure, make fun of me, we'll see who laughs last!

[Futbolmetrix]

Post by Werner Pichler
Right. Well, I got 2.0586 for the upper half and 1.9414 for the lower,
so that doesn't look to egregious. Michael even has 1.994 and 2.006.

I think we need to reconsider MH's classification as a human.

[MH]

Post by Futbolmetrix

Post by Werner Pichler
Right. Well, I got 2.0586 for the upper half and 1.9414 for the lower,
so that doesn't look to egregious. Michael even has 1.994 and 2.006.

I think we need to reconsider MH's classification as a human.

I am not sure I understand the problem.

Until the draw happens after the first round, we don't know which of

Liverpool or Barca

Lille or Villa

Arsenal or Inter

Bayer or Atletico

is in which half of the draw (bottom or top), just that one of each pair
will be in each half.

We do know that all of Brest, PSG, Real Madrid, City, Juventus, PSV,
Atalanta and Bruges will be in top half if they do win. Whereas the
other 8 would all, if victorious, be in the bottom half.

What am I missing?

[Futbolmetrix]

Post by MH

Post by Futbolmetrix

Post by Werner Pichler
Right. Well, I got 2.0586 for the upper half and 1.9414 for the lower,
so that doesn't look to egregious. Michael even has 1.994 and 2.006.

I think we need to reconsider MH's classification as a human.

I am not sure I understand the problem.

Now he's acting confused so so that we think that he is indeed human!

Post by MH
Until the draw happens after the first round, we don't know which of
Liverpool or Barca
Lille or Villa
Arsenal or Inter
Bayer or Atletico
is in which half of the draw (bottom or top), just that one of each pair
will be in each half.

The "bottom" or "top" denomination (or "left" and "right") is a bit
misleading. Take the figure posted on the UEFA website:

https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/0294-1c8996e7b52e-559ccdc197e6-1000--uefa-champions-league-knockout-phase-play-off-draw/

It's true that Liverpool and Barcelona can be either in the left half of
the draw or the right half of the draw. However, you will notice that
Liverpool and Barcelona are always in the top part of their side of the
draw. Therefore, the number of quarterfinalists from the set {Brest-PSG,
Monaco-Benfica, Liverpool and Barcelona} + {Club Brugge-Atalanta,
Sporting-Borussia Dortmund, Aston Villa, Lille} must exactly be equal to
2.

The restriction is on the quarterfinals, not the semifinals. In the
semifinals, everybody can play everybody.

[MH]

Post by Futbolmetrix

Post by MH

Post by Futbolmetrix

Post by Werner Pichler
Right. Well, I got 2.0586 for the upper half and 1.9414 for the lower,
so that doesn't look to egregious. Michael even has 1.994 and 2.006.

I think we need to reconsider MH's classification as a human.

I am not sure I understand the problem.

Now he's acting confused so so that we think that he is indeed human!

Post by MH
Until the draw happens after the first round, we don't know which of
Liverpool or Barca
Lille  or Villa
Arsenal or Inter
Bayer or Atletico
is in which half of the draw (bottom or top), just that one of each pair
will be in each half.

The "bottom" or "top" denomination (or "left" and "right") is a bit
https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/
news/0294-1c8996e7b52e-559ccdc197e6-1000--uefa-champions-league-
knockout-phase-play-off-draw/
It's true that Liverpool and Barcelona can be either in the left half of
the draw or the right half of the draw. However, you will notice that
Liverpool and Barcelona are always in the top part of their side of the
draw. Therefore, the number of quarterfinalists from the set {Brest-PSG,
Monaco-Benfica, Liverpool and Barcelona} + {Club Brugge-Atalanta,
Sporting-Borussia Dortmund, Aston Villa, Lille} must exactly be equal to
2.

I get that. I think.

Post by Futbolmetrix
The restriction is on the quarterfinals, not the semifinals. In the
semifinals, everybody can play everybody.

Really ? I thought it was impossible for Liverpool and Barcelona to
meet before the final, for example. Ditto for Arsenal and Inter. And so
on.

[Futbolmetrix]

Post by MH

Post by Futbolmetrix
The restriction is on the quarterfinals, not the semifinals. In the
semifinals, everybody can play everybody.

Really ? I thought it was impossible for Liverpool and Barcelona to
meet before the final, for example. Ditto for Arsenal and Inter. And so
on.

Yse, you're right. With exception of the two seeded teams in the same
bubble (BAR-LIV, LIL-AVL, ATM-LEV and ARS-INT) who can only play each
other in the final, everybody else can play each other in the semis.

[Futbolmetrix]

Post by Futbolmetrix
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12tPNpksfBbcR7GbW6XPDQQsbl3GG30nV_s-4SrciS1s/edit?usp=sharing

-9.602 Werner Pichler
-9.804 Jesus Petry
-10.138 Futbolmetrix
-10.209 Collective Consciousness
-10.565 MH
-10.922 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
-11.090 Agnostic
-11.339 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)

Post by Futbolmetrix
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18nUMqdeeodKpPdzG3s8h3VFcq4q8yG01XSVcquscmdQ/edit?usp=sharing

-9.724 MH
-10.221 Jesus Petry
-10.295 Futbolmetrix
-10.333 Collective Consciousness
-10.554 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
-10.658 Werner Pichler
-11.090 Agnostic
-11.478 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)

[Futbolmetrix]

Post by Futbolmetrix

Post by Futbolmetrix
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12tPNpksfBbcR7GbW6XPDQQsbl3GG30nV_s-4SrciS1s/edit?usp=sharing

-9.602 Werner Pichler
-9.804 Jesus Petry
-10.138 Futbolmetrix
-10.209 Collective Consciousness
-10.565 MH
-10.922 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
-11.090 Agnostic
-11.339 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)

After the end of the playoff round:

-10.205 Jesus Petry
-10.581 Werner Pichler
-10.702 Futbolmetrix
-10.916 Collective Consciousness
-11.090 Agnostic
-11.376 MH
-11.866 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
-11.895 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)

This Futbolmetrix dude should really improve his bots...

Post by Futbolmetrix

Post by Futbolmetrix
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18nUMqdeeodKpPdzG3s8h3VFcq4q8yG01XSVcquscmdQ/edit?usp=sharing

-9.724 MH
-10.221 Jesus Petry
-10.295 Futbolmetrix
-10.333 Collective Consciousness
-10.554 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
-10.658 Werner Pichler
-11.090 Agnostic
-11.478 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)

After the end of the playoff round:

-9.724 MH
-9.964 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
-10.342 Collective Consciousness
-10.448 Werner Pichler
-10.539 Futbolmetrix
-11.032 Jesus Petry
-11.090 Agnostic
-11.197 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)