Discussion:
(R/T) Conmebol WCQ 2026, Round 8
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Lléo
2024-09-11 03:05:37 UTC
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A rather drought-breaking round in Conmebol World Cup qualification
tonight, as four of the five games yield results not seen in a while in
these parts. Overall, Argentina, Brasil and Uruguay struggled; Colombia
"avenged" its Copa America final loss and earned an important victory;
Ecuador did its homework, Venezuela could have done better; Chile and
Peru remain adrift at the bottom; and Paraguay and Bolivia have the
biggest smile of the world on their faces right now.

Colombia 2-1 Argentina

Colombia breaks a five year drought and beats Argentina at Estadio
Metropolitano de Barranquilla. James Rodriguez was involved in all
goals. First he assisted Yerson Mosquera, crossing from the left wing
for the latter's header in the 25th minute, his first goal for Colombia
on his 4th cap. Early in the second half, though, he misplaced a pass to
Mosquera, which Nico Gonzalez pounced upon to face the keeper
mano-a-mano and fire it in. And finally, a VAR spotted penalty by
Otamendi over Muñoz, in which James made no mistake.

This is Colombia's first win over Argentina since Copa America 2019, in
Salvador. Before that, it had been one in 2007, a WCQ in Bogotá.
Colombia remains unbeaten in this WCQ cycle and jumps to second place.
Argentina still leads.

Ecuador 1-0 Peru

Ecuador too breaks a five-year drought as they beat Peru at Estadio Casa
Blanca, in Quito. A header by Enner Valencia, in the 54th minute,
separated the two teams. Peru pushed on near the end of the game, but
Ecuador held on until final whistle.

This is Ecuador's first win over Peru since a friendly between these two
teams in 2019. In competition games the drought goes further back, last
win having been a WCQ win in 2011 at Estadio Atahualpa, in Quito. Peru
remains winless in this WCQ cycle.

Chile 1-2 Bolivia

It has happened, the Great Wait is over. At Estadio Nacional, in
Santiago, Bolivia finally wins again as visitor in a South American
competition game. And a game with its share of controversy it was.

Carmelo Algarañaz scored first for the visitors in the 12th minute,
making the most out of a quick conter attack down the left wing. Chile
pushed back and, in the 39th minute, drew level on a controversial play.
A free kick for Bolivia, near the midfield line, was backpassed all the
way to Lampe, and Eduardo Vargas charged towards the Bolivian keeper. As
Lampe touched the ball he felt something on his left foot and
immediately dropped to the ground. It was not a foul, as Vargas was
still some ground away from Lampe when it happened, and the Chilean
forward did not care much: he took the ball, rounded the fallen keeper
and ran with it over the line for the equalizer.

The Bolivians were infuriated by Vargas's supposed lack of fair play,
and it took a while for Paraguayan referee Juan Gabriel Benítez to calm
down everyone's nerves and resume the game. Lampe, for his part, was
immediately substituted by Viscarra, so it seems his injury was actually
serious, and not an attempt to playact over a blunder to try to save
some face. But immediately upon restart, Bolivia struck back, again on a
play down their left wing, this time finished by "Miguelito" Terceros.

In the second half, Chile took control of the game and Bolivia had their
backs against the wall. But once again the Chilean toothlessness showed.
Between missed chances and Viscarra's saves, Chile was even awarded a
wrongful penalty, a situation soon corrected by VAR robots. In the
pre-VAR days, Bolivia would probably still be waiting.

A couple of rounds ago we talked about unbeaten runs. This round brings
the opposite. It's been 11,378 days since Bolivia's 1-7 win over
Venezuela in San Cristóbal, on July 17th, 1993. Since then and until
this one, they played 64 away WCQ games, with 8 draws and 56 losses,
having scored 37 goals and conceded 174 over these 31 years. A winless
run that was as long as Brasil's recently broken unbeaten home one.
Well, it is all laid to rest now.

(before that 1-7, Bolivia had a couple of away wins: one in 1977 over
Venezuela and another in 1989 over Peru. But Conmebol qualifiers were a
lot shorter, so I don't think they have previous winless runs worth
mentioning. Other teams might have something, though...)

Venezuela 0-0 Uruguay

A goalless draw at a rain-soaked Estadio Monumental de Maturin.
Venezuela dominated actions and created several chances against a rather
understrength Uruguayan side. The hosts even had a goal called back for
offside, on a play that generated doubts since the ball hit an Uruguayan
defender before reaching Salomon Rondon, but it was ruled accidental by
the referee, a decision ratified by VAR robots. Sergio Rochet had to put
out a man of the match performance to save the visitors a valuable away
point.

Venezuela will rue on this one for a while, given how Uruguay was
missing several key players. But they're still inside the automatic
qualifying zone. Uruguay is on a solid 3rd position.

Paraguay 1-0 Brasil

Brave performance and deserved victory for Paraguay at Estadio
Defensores del Chaco, in Asunción, with an 18th minute goal by Diego
Gomez. Brasil played very poorly in the first half and tried to push on
in the second, but were as uninspiring and disjointed as they have been
for a while. Paraguay defended well and had a number of chances to add a
further goal or two.

This was Paraguay's first win over Brasil since 2008, which was another
WCQ one in the same venue. They stay in the playoff zone, outqualifying
Bolivia on GD. Whileas, with four losses in eight games, Brasil ends
this round in 5th place.


Table [points, games, w-d-l, gs-gc, gd, (mi = media inglese)]

1 Argentina 18 8 6 0 2 12-4 8+ (mi = +2)
2 Colombia 16 8 4 4 0 9-5 4+ (mi = 0)
3 Uruguay 15 8 4 3 1 13-5 8+ (mi = -1)
4 Ecuador 11 8 4 2 2 6-4 2+ (mi = -2) (-3 points penalty)
5 Brasil 10 8 3 1 4 9-8 1+ (mi = -6)
6 Venezuela 10 8 2 4 2 6-7 1- (mi = -6)
----------------------------------------------
7 Paraguay 9 8 2 3 3 2-3 1- (mi = -7)
----------------------------------------------
8 Bolivia 9 8 3 0 5 10-15 5- (mi = -7)
9 Chile 5 8 1 2 5 4-12 8- (mi =-11)
10 Peru 3 8 0 3 5 2-10 8- (mi =-13)


Next round to be played on October 10th. In brackets below, the results
of these games in the WCQ cycles of 2022/2018/2014/2010/2006/2002/1998
(all the round robin ones so far)

Peru - Uruguay (1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-0, 0-2, 2-1)

Peru has been the poorest team in this cycle. At home they might try to
make things tight for Uruguay, but La Celeste is the much better team
between these two. I'd call a close win for Uruguay, say 0-1. In
soph-terms, Peru 0.25, draw 0.35, Uruguay 0.40.

Venezuela - Argentina (1-3, 2-2, 1-0, 0-2, 0-3, 0-4, 2-5)

Even at home this should be a tough one for Venezuela. Not hard to see
Argentina taking this one. I'll call VEN 0-2 ARG (in soph terms:
Venezuela 0.15, draw 0.15, Argentina 0.70).

Bolivia - Colombia (1-1, 2-3, 1-2, 0-0, 4-0, 1-1, 2-2)

Bolivia seems to be on a bit of a roll and, at Estadio Hernando Siles,
in La Paz, it's conceivable that they could find their third WCQ win in
a row, something that doesn't happen since their successful qualifying
run of 1993. It won't be easy, though, as Colombia is a much better side
and comes from a morale boosting win over Argentina. I'll call this one
a draw, say, 1-1 (in soph-terms: Bolivia 0.30, draw 0.30, Colombia 0.40).

Chile - Brasil (0-1, 2-0, n/a, 0-3, 1-1, 3-0, n/a)

A match between an uninspiring team versus a toothless one. Chile has
been very poor, but Brasil lost three out of four away thus far. I think
Brasil has the edge, but as things have been going it is smaller than
one would expect it to be. I'll call an away win, Chile 1-2 Brasil (in
soph-terms: Chile 0.25, draw 0.35, Brasil 0.40).

Ecuador - Paraguay (2-0, 2-2, 4-1, 1-1, 5-2, 2-1, 2-1)

Paraguay emerges from these last two rounds with high morale, having
earned 4 points where one could reasonably expect them to find 0 or 1.
Ecuador, however, is the better side, and could have been in a much more
comfortable position if not for the points penalty. In Ecuador, the
hosts are the favorites. I'd say Ecuador wins 2-1. In soph-terms:
Ecuador 0.55, draw 0.25, Paraguay 0.20.


Best regards,

Lléo
anders t
2024-09-11 05:16:50 UTC
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Post by Lléo
Brasil ends
this round in 5th place.
Can Brazil miss the WC even??? 8-O
--
Manchester United FC - CHAMPIONS
Latest: England '13 (20th) Europa '17, UEFA '08, World '08
Lléo
2024-09-11 21:56:08 UTC
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Post by anders t
Post by Lléo
Brasil ends
this round in 5th place.
Can Brazil miss the WC even??? 8-O
For a quick answer: no, I don't think so, the bar for that is too low.

For a longer answer: well, let's see some numbers.

(maybe you meant your question as a rhetorical one, but it's fun to
answer rhetorical questions time and then :-))

Here are the points thresholds for 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th place in the
qualifying cycles for 2002, 2006, 2010, 2018 and 2022 - ie, those with
all 10 Conmebol teams taking part and in double round robin format:

2002: 30, 27, 27 and 18 points
2006: 28, 25, 24 and 22 points
2010: 28, 24, 23 and 23 points
2018: 27, 26, 26 and 24 points
2022: 26, 24, 23 and 19 points

Averages: 27.8, 25.2, 24.6 and 21.2 points

Taking these averages as reference points, it would seem that Brasil
needs to find about 15 points in 10 rounds for an automatic spot, or 12
points for the playoff one. In the old format (4.5 spots), those bars
would raise a bit, to 18 or 16 points respectively. Brasil's current
point average is 1.25 per game, which would yield 12 or 13 in 10 games,
ie, nearer the lower boundary.

The remaining home games are Peru, Uruguay, Colombia, Paraguay and
Chile. Away it'll be Chile, Venezuela, Argentina, Ecuador and Bolivia.

In the previous format, I'd agree that things would be starting to
become a little too tight and there would need to be a bigger sense of
urgency (but still, with plenty of room for recovery). As it is, the
ship - mediocre as it has shown to be thus far - seems to be on due
course to, at least, a playoff spot.

This is not a surprise. I know I may be sounding like a broken record
but, with 48 teams, the qualifying threshold is too low. And even if it
comes down to an interconfederational playoff spot, at that stage it's
Concacaf's #7 and #8 teams; CAF's #10 team; AFC's #9 team; and OFC's #2
team. According to Elo Ratings, we're talking teams such as Haiti,
Honduras, Cameroon, Qatar or New Caledonia. By FIFA it's the likes of
Honduras, El Salvador, South Africa, Jordan or Solomon Islands.

With all due respect to all teams mentioned above, I just don't see it.
Failing to qualify under such circumstances would probably amount to a
flop of 7-1 proportions (ok, maybe not?). And regardless of all the
math, I think at some point, Brasil will gather itself together and pull
through. There is enough room for improvement and I think it'll come in
due time.


Best regards,

Lléo

Jesper Lauridsen
2024-09-11 12:58:38 UTC
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Post by Lléo
Colombia 2-1 Argentina
Argentina as graceful in defeat as they are in victory
https://www.reddit.com/r/soccer/comments/1fdwm30/emiliano_mart%C3%ADnez_slapping_the_camera_after_loss/
Post by Lléo
Paraguay 1-0 Brasil
Argentina and Brasil losing in the same round, has that happened before?
Lléo
2024-09-11 20:18:49 UTC
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Post by Jesper Lauridsen
Post by Lléo
Colombia 2-1 Argentina
Argentina as graceful in defeat as they are in victory
https://www.reddit.com/r/soccer/comments/1fdwm30/emiliano_mart%C3%ADnez_slapping_the_camera_after_loss/
Post by Lléo
Paraguay 1-0 Brasil
Argentina and Brasil losing in the same round, has that happened before?
Only once, in Round 1 of WC'2018 qualifiers. On October 8th, 2015, Chile
defeated Brasil in Santiago while Ecuador stunned Argentina in Buenos
Aires. Both games finished 2-0.

And I just found, in Wikipedia, a curious bit of cross-refereeing trivia
about this round: Chile vs Brasil was refereed by an Ecuadoran referee
(Roddy Zambrano), while Argentina vs Ecuador was refereed by a Chilean
one (Julio Bascuñán).


Best regards,

Lléo
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