Discussion:
(R/T) Conmebol WCQ 2026, Round 9
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Lléo
2024-10-11 03:20:56 UTC
Permalink
It's halfway point at the Conmebol World Cup Qualifiers, every team has
played each other once, except for one game, to be played tomorrow.
Bolivia keeps up their recent surge in form and join the qualifying zone
for the first time in ages, vaulting past Venezuela and Paraguay. Things
remain close around the playoff spot, with three points separating the
4th and 8th placed teams.

Bolivia 1-0 Colombia

After breaking their away games drought, Bolivia moves on to the next
one at Estadio Municipal de El Alto. Although they were down to 10 men
since the 19th minute (Hector Cuellar got a straight red for a tackle
from behind), a very nice golaço by Miguelito Terceros in the 57th
minute gave the hosts their first win over Colombia in 21 years.
Colombia pressed on, but Bolivia successfully held them off.

This is the first time since 1993 that Bolivia wins three in a row in
the WCQ, also the first since it adopted the double round robin format.
Overall, the last time they pulled this out was in 2021, when they won
two qualifiers and a friendly against El Salvador. Also, this was
Bolivia's 4th win in this cycle, thus matching their total in each WCQ
they played since 1998 (excepting 2014, in which they only won two).
Unless the second half of the WCQ goes horribly wrong for them, they
might as well match or surpass their record, which is 5 wins in the 1994
qualifiers.

Bolivia steps inside the qualifying area for the first time in a very
long time (possibly since 1994? Would have to check that one). Colombia
lost its first game in this cycle, but stays safely nested up there.

Ecuador 0-0 Paraguay

Not much to say about this one, at Estadio Casa Blanca, in Quito.
Ecuador predictably made most of the play and forced Paraguayan keeper
Junior Fernandez to work hard to save the visitors a valuable away
point. Paraguay seemed happy to defend the draw and did little to
threaten the hosts.

Ecuador stays inside the qualifying zone, but their three points penalty
means they must remain on their toes. And though in principle it's not a
bad thing to pull out an away draw in Quito, Paraguay has now dropped
below the qualifying threshold.

Venezuela 1-1 Argentina

Venezuela and Argentina held each other out to a draw on the swampy
pitch of Estadio Monumental de Maturín (it had rained heavily on that
city hours before the game). Argentina scored the opener in the 12th
minute: Messi lobbed a free kick inside the Venezuelan box, goalkeeper
Romo dived to punch the ball away, it hit the face of a defender and
fell to Otamendi to just push it in. Venezuela's reply came on the
second half, on the 64th minute: Soteldo cleared a couple of
Argentinians down the left wing and crossed it for Rondón to head in the
equalizer. Both teams pushed on and forced saves from Romo and Rulli
(Argentina was without Emiliano Martinez, suspended for two games for
his camera-hitting shenanigans of last round), but the stalemate remained.

Good result for Venezuela, considering who they were playing, and kudos
to them for not folding or giving up at any point, even when a goal
down. But it is now five games without a win and they now occupy the
playoff spot. Argentina should have done better, given the difference in
quality between the two teams, but at the end of the day, Venezuela is
not that bad, they'll end this round as leaders anyway and an away point
is always an away point.

Chile 1-2 Brasil

An extremely frustrating result for the hosts, and correspondingly
relieving one for the visitors, at Estadio Nacional de Santiago. Chile
sucker-punched Brasil early on, with Vargas scoring the opener in the
first minute. But then they gave up playing and set their stall to
defend their lead, and Brasil grew back into the game. Igor Jesus
equalized at the end of the first half and Luiz Henrique completed the
comeback in the 87th minute, counting with the generosity of goalkeeper
Brayan Cortes, who decided against stretching his arms as he dived for
the ball and, predictably, could not reach it.

Not a very good game overall. Chile is intensely poor, but Brasil had a
really hard time getting through, putting out another very uninspiring
display.

Chile remains adrift near the foot of the table, looking unable to get
anywhere close even to a playoff spot. Brasil finds its way into 4th
place, but still within shooting range of the rest of the pack.


To be played tomorrow, Peru vs Uruguay.


Table at this moment [points, games, w-d-l, gs-gc, gd, (mi = media inglese)]

1 Argentina 19 9 6 1 2 13-5 8+ (mi = +2)
2 Colombia 16 9 4 4 1 9-6 3+ (mi = -1)
3 Uruguay 15 8 4 3 1 13-5 8+ (mi = -1)
4 Brasil 13 9 4 1 4 11-9 2+ (mi = -4)
5 Ecuador 12 9 4 3 2 6-4 2+ (mi = -4) (-3 points penalty)
6 Bolivia 12 9 4 0 5 11-15 4- (mi = -7)
----------------------------------------------
7 Venezuela 11 9 2 5 2 7-8 1- (mi = -8)
----------------------------------------------
8 Paraguay 10 9 2 4 3 2-3 1- (mi = -7)
9 Chile 5 9 1 2 6 5-14 9- (mi =-14)
10 Peru 3 8 0 3 5 2-10 8- (mi =-13)


Best regards,

Lléo
Lléo
2024-10-12 04:03:54 UTC
Permalink
Post by Lléo
It's halfway point at the Conmebol World Cup Qualifiers, every team has
played each other once, except for one game, to be played tomorrow.
Bolivia keeps up their recent surge in form and join the qualifying zone
for the first time in ages, vaulting past Venezuela and Paraguay. Things
remain close around the playoff spot, with three points separating the
4th and 8th placed teams.
And, as it turns out, only one win and overall only five points among
the top five teams in the table.
Post by Lléo
[SNIP]
To be played tomorrow, Peru vs Uruguay.
Peru 1-0 Uruguay

In the run-in to the game, now-nt-retired Luis Suarez exposed
relationship problems between the Uruguayan players and Marcelo Bielsa,
an issue later confirmed by a number of current squad members. Peru, for
its part, was missing a number of players, some due to injury (such as
Lapadula and Tapia, plus Advincula, who wasn't match fit for this one)
and others apparently being phased out (Cueva, Guerrero, I think Yotun
too). Plus, a public transit strike in Lima seemed to put the actual
game in jeopardy, though these fears didn't materialize and there was a
good attendance tonight at Estadio Nacional de Lima.

Inside the pitch it was a poor game of two halves. Uruguay wasn't much
inspired, but it was enough for them to make most of the play in the
first half. They weren't too much bothered by the hosts and no one would
bat an eyelid had they carried a lead to halftime. The second half was
the opposite, though: Uruguay struggled and it was Peru who took most
danger to the opposing goal. Things became a bit more back-and-forth as
the clock run down, and the hosts found their way to the winning goal:
on the 87th minute, a cross from the right by Quispe found Miguel
Araujo's header, which seemed to catch Rochet a little off-guard.

This was Peru's first win in this cycle. They leave the foot of the
standings to their Chilean friends, but are still five points off the
playoff zone and not looking like they'll bridge that gap. Uruguay stays
in 3rd place.

In the post-match interview, Bielsa said he "doesn't ignore" what was
said over the week and acknowledged that his authority might have been a
bit undermined, but that the players' effort in the game were
"generous", the preparations for it were serious and that he doesn't
attribute the result to the situation. It'll be interesting to see which
way the situation unfolds.


Table [points, games, w-d-l, gs-gc, gd, (mi = media inglese)]

1 Argentina 19 9 6 1 2 13-5 8+ (mi = +2)
2 Colombia 16 9 4 4 1 9-6 3+ (mi = -1)
3 Uruguay 15 9 4 3 2 13-6 7+ (mi = -2)
4 Brasil 13 9 4 1 4 11-9 2+ (mi = -4)
5 Ecuador 12 9 4 3 2 6-4 2+ (mi = -4) (-3 points penalty)
6 Bolivia 12 9 4 0 5 11-15 4- (mi = -7)
----------------------------------------------
7 Venezuela 11 9 2 5 2 7-8 1- (mi = -8)
----------------------------------------------
8 Paraguay 10 9 2 4 3 2-3 1- (mi = -7)
9 Peru 6 9 1 3 5 3-10 7- (mi =-13)
10 Chile 5 9 1 2 6 5-14 9- (mi =-14)


Next round to be played on October 15th. In brackets below, the results
of these games in the WCQ cycles of 2022/2018/2014/2010/2006/2002/1998
(all the round robin ones so far)

Colombia - Chile (3-1, 0-0, 3-3, 2-4, 1-1, 3-1, 4-1). Matchday 2: CHI
0-0 COL

Doesn't seem to be a hard one to call at all. This is a good Colombian
side facing what is possibly the worst Chilean team I've ever seen.
Football is football, but at Estadio Metropolitano de Barranquilla, the
hosts clearly should have the upper hand. I'll call a 2-0 win for
Colombia (in soph-terms: Colombia 0.80, draw 0.10, Chile 0.10).

Paraguay - Venezuela (2-1, 0-1, 0-2, 2-0, 1-0, 3-0, 1-0). Matchday 2:
VEN 1-0 PAR

But this seems to be a close one. Games involving Paraguay already tend
to be low-scoring all around (after nine rounds, it's two goals scored
and three conceded). On paper Venezuela seems to be a better side, even
if not by much really, but they've been stuttering for a while. At
Defensores del Chaco, in Asunción, I guess the crowd should tip the
scales a little towards the hosts. Anyway, let's say Paraguay 1-0
Venezuela (in soph-terms: Paraguay 0.40, draw 0.30, Venezuela 0.30).

Uruguay - Ecuador (1-0, 2-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 4-0, 5-3). Matchday 2: ECU
2-1 URU

Uruguay seems to have a number of issues to sort out between their
manager and their players, and under this divide they performed poorly
against the bottom-placed side. They now face Ecuador who are a much
more dangerous opponent than Peru. The home factor may help La Celeste:
Ecuador has never beaten Uruguay at Estadio Centenario (or anywhere else
in Uruguay, for that matter). I think that they won't do it this time
either, but it should be close. I'll make it an 1-1 draw (in soph-terms:
Uruguay 0.40, draw 0.30, Ecuador 0.30).

Argentina - Bolivia (3-0, 2-0, 1-1, 3-0, 3-0, 1-0, 3-1). Matchday 2: BOL
0-3 ARG

Bolivia may be on a bit of a hot streak, yes, but I guess taking on
Argentina at Estadio Monumental de Nuñez, in Buenos Aires, is a whole
lot too much to ask for. I guess Argentina shouldn't have much trouble
with this one. I'd predict Argentina 3-0 Bolivia (in soph-terms:
Argentina 1, draw 0, Bolivia 0).

Brasil - Peru (2-0, 3-0, n/a, 3-0, 1-0, 1-1, n/a). Matchday 2: PER 0-1 BRA

I've repeatedly used the adjective "uninspiring" to refer to this
version of the Brazilian national team, though, to be fair, they've been
struggling with injuries more than usual and this is a very revamped
squad, compared the last World Cup one. Meanwhile, Peru also seems to
have its own problems to deal with, apart from the very poor run thus
far. At Estádio Mané Garrincha, in Brasília, Brasil should prevail, even
if it takes a bit of a struggle (as has been the norm lately). I'll call
Brasil 2-0 Peru (in soph-terms: Brasil 0.90, draw 0.05, Peru 0.05).


Best regards,

Lléo
Mark
2024-10-14 15:49:15 UTC
Permalink
Post by Lléo
Table [points, games, w-d-l, gs-gc, gd, (mi = media inglese)]
1 Argentina 19 9 6 1 2 13-5 8+ (mi = +2)
2 Colombia 16 9 4 4 1 9-6 3+ (mi = -1)
3 Uruguay 15 9 4 3 2 13-6 7+ (mi = -2)
4 Brasil 13 9 4 1 4 11-9 2+ (mi = -4)
5 Ecuador 12 9 4 3 2 6-4 2+ (mi = -4) (-3 points penalty)
6 Bolivia 12 9 4 0 5 11-15 4- (mi = -7)
----------------------------------------------
7 Venezuela 11 9 2 5 2 7-8 1- (mi = -8)
----------------------------------------------
8 Paraguay 10 9 2 4 3 2-3 1- (mi = -7)
9 Peru 6 9 1 3 5 3-10 7- (mi =-13)
10 Chile 5 9 1 2 6 5-14 9- (mi =-14)
Next round to be played on October 15th. In brackets below, the
results of these games in the WCQ cycles of
2022/2018/2014/2010/2006/2002/1998 (all the round robin ones so far)
Colombia - Chile (3-1, 0-0, 3-3, 2-4, 1-1, 3-1, 4-1). Matchday 2: CHI
0-0 COL
Doesn't seem to be a hard one to call at all. This is a good
Colombian side facing what is possibly the worst Chilean team I've
ever seen. Football is football, but at Estadio Metropolitano de
Barranquilla, the hosts clearly should have the upper hand. I'll call
a 2-0 win for Colombia (in soph-terms: Colombia 0.80, draw 0.10,
Chile 0.10).
Col 2 Chi 0
Post by Lléo
VEN 1-0 PAR
But this seems to be a close one. Games involving Paraguay already
tend to be low-scoring all around (after nine rounds, it's two goals
scored and three conceded). On paper Venezuela seems to be a better
side, even if not by much really, but they've been stuttering for a
while. At Defensores del Chaco, in Asunción, I guess the crowd should
tip the scales a little towards the hosts. Anyway, let's say Paraguay
1-0 Venezuela (in soph-terms: Paraguay 0.40, draw 0.30, Venezuela
0.30).
Par 1 Ven 1
Post by Lléo
ECU 2-1 URU
Uruguay seems to have a number of issues to sort out between their
manager and their players, and under this divide they performed
poorly against the bottom-placed side. They now face Ecuador who are
a much more dangerous opponent than Peru. The home factor may help La
Celeste: Ecuador has never beaten Uruguay at Estadio Centenario (or
anywhere else in Uruguay, for that matter). I think that they won't
do it this time either, but it should be close. I'll make it an 1-1
draw (in soph-terms: Uruguay 0.40, draw 0.30, Ecuador 0.30).
Uru 0 Ecu 0
Post by Lléo
BOL 0-3 ARG
Bolivia may be on a bit of a hot streak, yes, but I guess taking on
Argentina at Estadio Monumental de Nuñez, in Buenos Aires, is a whole
lot too much to ask for. I guess Argentina shouldn't have much
trouble with this one. I'd predict Argentina 3-0 Bolivia (in
soph-terms: Argentina 1, draw 0, Bolivia 0).
Arg 3 Bol 0
Post by Lléo
Brasil - Peru (2-0, 3-0, n/a, 3-0, 1-0, 1-1, n/a). Matchday 2: PER 0-1 BRA
I've repeatedly used the adjective "uninspiring" to refer to this
version of the Brazilian national team, though, to be fair, they've
been struggling with injuries more than usual and this is a very
revamped squad, compared the last World Cup one. Meanwhile, Peru also
seems to have its own problems to deal with, apart from the very poor
run thus far. At Estádio Mané Garrincha, in Brasília, Brasil should
prevail, even if it takes a bit of a struggle (as has been the norm
lately). I'll call Brasil 2-0 Peru (in soph-terms: Brasil 0.90, draw
0.05, Peru 0.05).
Bra 3 Per 1
Post by Lléo
Best regards,
Lléo
Mark
2024-10-16 12:13:55 UTC
Permalink
Post by Mark
CHI 0-0 COL
Doesn't seem to be a hard one to call at all. This is a good
Colombian side facing what is possibly the worst Chilean team I've
ever seen. Football is football, but at Estadio Metropolitano de
Barranquilla, the hosts clearly should have the upper hand. I'll
call a 2-0 win for Colombia (in soph-terms: Colombia 0.80, draw
0.10, Chile 0.10).
Col 2 Chi 0
70 points each
Post by Mark
Paraguay - Venezuela (2-1, 0-1, 0-2, 2-0, 1-0, 3-0, 1-0). Matchday
2: VEN 1-0 PAR
But this seems to be a close one. Games involving Paraguay already
tend to be low-scoring all around (after nine rounds, it's two goals
scored and three conceded). On paper Venezuela seems to be a better
side, even if not by much really, but they've been stuttering for a
while. At Defensores del Chaco, in Asunción, I guess the crowd
should tip the scales a little towards the hosts. Anyway, let's say
Paraguay 1-0 Venezuela (in soph-terms: Paraguay 0.40, draw 0.30,
Venezuela 0.30).
Par 1 Ven 1
Lleo 90
Mark 30
Post by Mark
ECU 2-1 URU
Uruguay seems to have a number of issues to sort out between their
manager and their players, and under this divide they performed
poorly against the bottom-placed side. They now face Ecuador who are
a much more dangerous opponent than Peru. The home factor may help
La Celeste: Ecuador has never beaten Uruguay at Estadio Centenario
(or anywhere else in Uruguay, for that matter). I think that they
won't do it this time either, but it should be close. I'll make it
an 1-1 draw (in soph-terms: Uruguay 0.40, draw 0.30, Ecuador 0.30).
Uru 0 Ecu 0
Lleo 90
Mark 100
Post by Mark
BOL 0-3 ARG
Bolivia may be on a bit of a hot streak, yes, but I guess taking on
Argentina at Estadio Monumental de Nuñez, in Buenos Aires, is a
whole lot too much to ask for. I guess Argentina shouldn't have much
trouble with this one. I'd predict Argentina 3-0 Bolivia (in
soph-terms: Argentina 1, draw 0, Bolivia 0).
Arg 3 Bol 0
60 points each
Post by Mark
Brasil - Peru (2-0, 3-0, n/a, 3-0, 1-0, 1-1, n/a). Matchday 2: PER 0-1 BRA
I've repeatedly used the adjective "uninspiring" to refer to this
version of the Brazilian national team, though, to be fair, they've
been struggling with injuries more than usual and this is a very
revamped squad, compared the last World Cup one. Meanwhile, Peru
also seems to have its own problems to deal with, apart from the
very poor run thus far. At Estádio Mané Garrincha, in Brasília,
Brasil should prevail, even if it takes a bit of a struggle (as has
Brasil 0.90, draw 0.05, Peru 0.05).
Bra 3 Per 1
70 points each

Totals:
Lleo 380
Mark 330

Not bad.

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