OT: It's that time again. 2020 US Elections.

Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? [...]

As they say, polls don't matter if people don't vote. I was so disappointed
at the fickleness of young voters that I don't consider anything in the
bag at this point. If the 25-40 yr olds would really start voting in real
numbers, the Reptile spook would be over with. (that was true last time,
too, and it is the reason both the last two times but esp 2020, that
Bernie went down in flames again)

--
ciao, Bruce

2020-10-14 22:28:44 UTC

Does Trump not need ALL of Florida, Ohio, NC, Pennsylvania and Arizona
to win ? (to mention only swing states that have substantial numbers of
electoral votes ?) I suppose he could lose Florida and win Michigan,
Wisconsin and Minnesota and still get in if he wins all those other ones
I mentioned ?

Post by Al Kamista
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13% he has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a little less than calling the right number on the roll of a die. Certainly possible.

Futbolmetrix

2020-10-14 23:46:19 UTC

Post by MH
Does Trump not need ALL of Florida, Ohio, NC, Pennsylvania and Arizona
to win ? (to mention only swing states that have substantial numbers of
electoral votes ?) I suppose he could lose Florida and win Michigan,
Wisconsin and Minnesota and still get in if he wins all those other ones
I mentioned ?

You can play here with electoral maps to your heart's content: https://www.270towin.com/

Yes, the map you described would put Trump over the top.

Al Kamista

2020-10-15 13:28:25 UTC

Post by MH

There are some other winnable permutations for him, but I mentioned FL because it is the biggest electoral swing state. He could lose FL and win by sweeping the Rust Belt states (AND other swing states like AZ and NC), but he's polling even further behind up there so I don't think that's a plausible scenario.

Futbolmetrix

2020-10-14 23:48:34 UTC

For comparison, 87% is the same probability that 538 gives to Liverpool making the R16 in the Champions League.

Futbolmetrix

2020-10-15 00:28:22 UTC

For comparison, 87% is the same probability that 538 gives to Liverpool making the R16 in the Champions League.

which reminds me, Euro Cups SophCon coming soon!

2020-10-15 02:22:00 UTC

For comparison, 87% is the same probability that 538 gives to Liverpool making the R16 in the Champions League.

538 gives about the same probability to Biden winning as it does to PSG
winning the French league. Dunno about you guys, but I feel way more
confident about PSG winning the league than I do about Liverpool getting
to the round of 16, and more confident about that than I do about Biden
:-( !

Bruce Scott

2020-10-15 09:28:20 UTC

Post by MH
538 gives about the same probability to Biden winning as it does to PSG
winning the French league. Dunno about you guys, but I feel way more
confident about PSG winning the league than I do about Liverpool getting
to the round of 16, and more confident about that than I do about Biden
:-( !

Those of us our age grew up reading about Truman and you probably also
recall him smiling over that front page headline about him having "lost"

Google this to find lots of versions:
truman chicago tribune

Here's a story from 2016 in the Chicago Tribune about the headline of
1948 in their own paper!
https://www.chicagotribune.com/opinion/commentary/ct-truman-defeats-dewey-1948-flashback-perspec-1113-md-20161111-story.html

--
ciao, Bruce

Futbolmetrix

2020-10-15 13:11:48 UTC

Post by Bruce Scott

Those of us our age grew up reading about Truman and you probably also
recall him smiling over that front page headline about him having "lost"

If mistrust in the polls is what it takes to get people to not take anything for granted and go out and vote, fine by me. But I suspect that the quality (and quantity) of polls has increased a wee bit relative to 75 years ago...

On the other hand, betting markets are much more cautious, and have Biden's probability at about 67%.

Futbolmetrix

2020-10-15 15:10:25 UTC

Post by Futbolmetrix
On the other hand, betting markets are much more cautious, and have Biden's probability at about 67%.

In case you want to play an Elections 2020 SophCon, here's a Google Sheet link.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PqsQHZAugxpgBIE1l7NQNOQrEChAAV4EQyBj4vJXZQc/edit?usp=sharing

Entries in the table are the probabilities that Biden wins each state. Just add your column to the right. Usual SophCon rules apply (Notes: for Maine and Nebraska we are counting the statewide results). Let's say that the deadline for entering the competition is October 20.

Entries so far:
---------------
PredictIt (prediction market)
FiveThirtyEight
The Economist
Agnostic
Election 2016 Actual
Futbolmetrix
270ToWin Consensus model

Werner Pichler

2020-10-15 16:26:05 UTC

Post by Futbolmetrix
On the other hand, betting markets are much more cautious, and have Biden's probability at about 67%.

In case you want to play an Elections 2020 SophCon, here's a Google Sheet link.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PqsQHZAugxpgBIE1l7NQNOQrEChAAV4EQyBj4vJXZQc/edit?usp=sharing
Entries in the table are the probabilities that Biden wins each state. Just add your column to the right. Usual SophCon rules apply (Notes: for Maine and Nebraska we are counting the statewide results). Let's say that the deadline for entering the competition is October 20.
---------------
PredictIt (prediction market)
FiveThirtyEight
The Economist
Agnostic
Election 2016 Actual
Futbolmetrix
270ToWin Consensus model

https://groups.google.com/d/msg/rec.sport.soccer/FTDU2-vg1jU/wc2squv0AwAJ

x2

Ciao,
Werner

Futbolmetrix

2020-10-15 19:15:57 UTC

Post by Werner Pichler
https://groups.google.com/d/msg/rec.sport.soccer/FTDU2-vg1jU/wc2squv0AwAJ
x2

Ugh. I had forgotten about this. Also, I obviously have learned nothing from the past (even though I think 2020 is fundamentally different from 2016).

2020-10-15 19:50:23 UTC

Post by Futbolmetrix
On the other hand, betting markets are much more cautious, and have Biden's probability at about 67%.

In case you want to play an Elections 2020 SophCon, here's a Google Sheet link.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PqsQHZAugxpgBIE1l7NQNOQrEChAAV4EQyBj4vJXZQc/edit?usp=sharing
Entries in the table are the probabilities that Biden wins each state. Just add your column to the right. Usual SophCon rules apply (Notes: for Maine and Nebraska we are counting the statewide results). Let's say that the deadline for entering the competition is October 20.
---------------
PredictIt (prediction market)
FiveThirtyEight
The Economist
Agnostic
Election 2016 Actual
Futbolmetrix
270ToWin Consensus model

https://groups.google.com/d/msg/rec.sport.soccer/FTDU2-vg1jU/wc2squv0AwAJ
x2

Great thread, thanks for reminding me of it. Futbolmetrix looking for a
job in Canada, Dwight educating us about early Reagan, an exchange with
Bruce about Academia in Canada, Sven's pessimism completely vindicated
(as it has been with HSV as well)

Post by Werner Pichler
Ciao,
Werner

Jesper Lauridsen

2020-10-15 22:08:40 UTC

Post by Futbolmetrix
In case you want to play an Elections 2020 SophCon, here's a Google Sheet link.

https://groups.google.com/d/msg/rec.sport.soccer/FTDU2-vg1jU/wc2squv0AwAJ
x2

It worked out the last time, so you don't want to jinx it?

2020-10-15 19:58:21 UTC

Post by Futbolmetrix
On the other hand, betting markets are much more cautious, and have Biden's probability at about 67%.

In case you want to play an Elections 2020 SophCon, here's a Google Sheet link.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PqsQHZAugxpgBIE1l7NQNOQrEChAAV4EQyBj4vJXZQc/edit?usp=sharing
Entries in the table are the probabilities that Biden wins each state. Just add your column to the right. Usual SophCon rules apply (Notes: for Maine and Nebraska we are counting the statewide results). Let's say that the deadline for entering the competition is October 20.
---------------
PredictIt (prediction market)
FiveThirtyEight
The Economist
Agnostic
Election 2016 Actual
Futbolmetrix
270ToWin Consensus model

Just edited this

Jesper Lauridsen

2020-10-15 22:17:35 UTC

Perhaps not unrelated to how upset you would be about each potential upset.

Al Kamista

2020-11-07 21:06:11 UTC

Post by Al Kamista
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as of today. While Biden has multiple paths to victory, Trump has no path if he loses Florida. Right now the RCP average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while the 538 average has him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13% he has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a little less than calling the right number on the roll of a die. Certainly possible.

The 4 year nightmare is over. Thank heavens.

The scary thing is that almost 70 million Americans still support him. He still wields tremendous political influence and will likely remain a kingmaker within the GOP.

More nastiness lies ahead but it's been a good day for decency.

Werner Pichler

2020-11-07 21:20:31 UTC

Post by Al Kamista
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as of today. While
Biden has multiple paths to victory, Trump has no path if he loses Florida.
Right now the RCP average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while the 538 average has
him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13% he has a 1 out of
7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a little less than calling the right number
on the roll of a die. Certainly possible.

The 4 year nightmare is over. Thank heavens.
The scary thing is that almost 70 million Americans still support him. He
still wields tremendous political influence and will likely remain a
kingmaker within the GOP.

But almost everywhere GOP candidates did better on the ballot than Trump did.
They lost Arizona and Georgia in large part due to Trump's pointless feuds with
the McCains and the legacy of John Lewis. It might be a slow process, but
surely the conviction that Trump has actually been a liability that has cost
them years of conservative hegemony will gain momentum in the party? Even Fox
has already gone halfway there.

Ciao,
Werner

Post by Al Kamista
More nastiness lies ahead but it's been a good day for decency.

Al Kamista

2020-11-08 13:07:10 UTC

Post by Al Kamista
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as of today. While
Biden has multiple paths to victory, Trump has no path if he loses Florida.
Right now the RCP average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while the 538 average has
him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13% he has a 1 out of
7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a little less than calling the right number
on the roll of a die. Certainly possible.

The 4 year nightmare is over. Thank heavens.
The scary thing is that almost 70 million Americans still support him. He
still wields tremendous political influence and will likely remain a
kingmaker within the GOP.

I hope you are right, but he did secure more votes for himself than he did in 2016, which was kind of shocking. It's hard to read the situation.

Werner Pichler

2020-11-08 14:35:07 UTC

Post by Al Kamista
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as of today.
While Biden has multiple paths to victory, Trump has no path if he
loses Florida. Right now the RCP average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while
the 538 average has him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13% he has a 1
out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a little less than calling the
right number on the roll of a die. Certainly possible.

The 4 year nightmare is over. Thank heavens.
The scary thing is that almost 70 million Americans still support him. He
still wields tremendous political influence and will likely remain a
kingmaker within the GOP.

But almost everywhere GOP candidates did better on the ballot than Trump
did. They lost Arizona and Georgia in large part due to Trump's pointless
feuds with the McCains and the legacy of John Lewis. It might be a slow
process, but surely the conviction that Trump has actually been a liability
that has cost them years of conservative hegemony will gain momentum in the
party? Even Fox has already gone halfway there.

I hope you are right, but he did secure more votes for himself than he did in
2016, which was kind of shocking. It's hard to read the situation.

And galvanized an even larger percentage to get out and vote against him. Every
action has its equal opposite reaction, and all that.

I also think Giuliani's bizarre Four Seasons Landscaping press conference could
be a watershed moment. To have exposed yourself, entirely through your own
fault, to this much ridicule could be a death blow. The entire case falls apart
when presented with this much bumbling incompetence. I know people have
made fun of Trump for ages and with little effect, but this feels different.

Ciao,
Werner

Al Kamista

2020-11-08 15:05:14 UTC

Post by Al Kamista
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as of today.
While Biden has multiple paths to victory, Trump has no path if he
loses Florida. Right now the RCP average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while
the 538 average has him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13% he has a 1
out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a little less than calling the
right number on the roll of a die. Certainly possible.

The 4 year nightmare is over. Thank heavens.
The scary thing is that almost 70 million Americans still support him. He
still wields tremendous political influence and will likely remain a
kingmaker within the GOP.

But almost everywhere GOP candidates did better on the ballot than Trump
did. They lost Arizona and Georgia in large part due to Trump's pointless
feuds with the McCains and the legacy of John Lewis. It might be a slow
process, but surely the conviction that Trump has actually been a liability
that has cost them years of conservative hegemony will gain momentum in the
party? Even Fox has already gone halfway there.

I hope you are right, but he did secure more votes for himself than he did in
2016, which was kind of shocking. It's hard to read the situation.

And galvanized an even larger percentage to get out and vote against him. Every
action has its equal opposite reaction, and all that.
I also think Giuliani's bizarre Four Seasons Landscaping press conference could
be a watershed moment. To have exposed yourself, entirely through your own
fault, to this much ridicule could be a death blow. The entire case falls apart
when presented with this much bumbling incompetence. I know people have
made fun of Trump for ages and with little effect, but this feels different.

If there's someone I despise almost as much as Trump in the American political theater, it's Rudy Giuliani. What happened to this guy? He was an admirable crime fighter who brought down the New York Mafia (as an Italian-American he said he felt it was his patriotic duty to redeem the image of Italian-Americans) and showed great leadership in the direct aftermath of 9/11, but since then he has slowly descended into desperate sycophantism to cling on to any form of power and relevance that he can get his claws on. A real life Gollum if there ever was one.

Binder Dundat

2020-11-08 15:06:18 UTC

Post by Al Kamista
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as of today.
While Biden has multiple paths to victory, Trump has no path if he
loses Florida. Right now the RCP average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while
the 538 average has him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13% he has a 1
out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a little less than calling the
right number on the roll of a die. Certainly possible.

The 4 year nightmare is over. Thank heavens.
The scary thing is that almost 70 million Americans still support him. He
still wields tremendous political influence and will likely remain a
kingmaker within the GOP.

But almost everywhere GOP candidates did better on the ballot than Trump
did. They lost Arizona and Georgia in large part due to Trump's pointless
feuds with the McCains and the legacy of John Lewis. It might be a slow
process, but surely the conviction that Trump has actually been a liability
that has cost them years of conservative hegemony will gain momentum in the
party? Even Fox has already gone halfway there.

I hope you are right, but he did secure more votes for himself than he did in
2016, which was kind of shocking. It's hard to read the situation.

And galvanized an even larger percentage to get out and vote against him. Every
action has its equal opposite reaction, and all that.
I also think Giuliani's bizarre Four Seasons Landscaping press conference could
be a watershed moment. To have exposed yourself, entirely through your own
fault, to this much ridicule could be a death blow. The entire case falls apart
when presented with this much bumbling incompetence. I know people have
made fun of Trump for ages and with little effect, but this feels different.
Ciao,
Werner

even i have a tough time believing that story (the four seasons hotel/garden centre mixup) was not made up by the "libtard media" making the old conservative idiots look like clowns. Was that really a thing that happened and not an SNL skit last night?

Werner Pichler

2020-11-08 15:13:55 UTC

Post by Binder Dundat

Post by Al Kamista
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as of today.
While Biden has multiple paths to victory, Trump has no path if he
loses Florida. Right now the RCP average has Biden +3.7 in FL,
while the 538 average has him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13% he has a
1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a little less than calling
the right number on the roll of a die. Certainly possible.

The 4 year nightmare is over. Thank heavens.
The scary thing is that almost 70 million Americans still support
him. He still wields tremendous political influence and will likely
remain a kingmaker within the GOP.

But almost everywhere GOP candidates did better on the ballot than
Trump did. They lost Arizona and Georgia in large part due to Trump's
pointless feuds with the McCains and the legacy of John Lewis. It might
be a slow process, but surely the conviction that Trump has actually
been a liability that has cost them years of conservative hegemony will
gain momentum in the party? Even Fox has already gone halfway there.

I hope you are right, but he did secure more votes for himself than he
did in 2016, which was kind of shocking. It's hard to read the situation.

And galvanized an even larger percentage to get out and vote against him.
Every action has its equal opposite reaction, and all that.
I also think Giuliani's bizarre Four Seasons Landscaping press conference
could be a watershed moment. To have exposed yourself, entirely through
your own fault, to this much ridicule could be a death blow. The entire
case falls apart when presented with this much bumbling incompetence. I
know people have made fun of Trump for ages and with little effect, but
this feels different.

even i have a tough time believing that story (the four seasons hotel/garden
centre mixup) was not made up by the "libtard media" making the old
conservative idiots look like clowns. Was that really a thing that happened
and not an SNL skit last night?

It is very much true. Not even Sacha Baron Cohen could have come up with
something like this.

https://twitter.com/_RichardHall/status/1325088995773132803

Ciao,
Werner

Al Kamista

2020-11-09 19:56:49 UTC

Post by Binder Dundat

Post by Al Kamista
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as of today.
While Biden has multiple paths to victory, Trump has no path if he
loses Florida. Right now the RCP average has Biden +3.7 in FL,
while the 538 average has him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13% he has a
1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a little less than calling
the right number on the roll of a die. Certainly possible.

The 4 year nightmare is over. Thank heavens.
The scary thing is that almost 70 million Americans still support
him. He still wields tremendous political influence and will likely
remain a kingmaker within the GOP.

But almost everywhere GOP candidates did better on the ballot than
Trump did. They lost Arizona and Georgia in large part due to Trump's
pointless feuds with the McCains and the legacy of John Lewis. It might
be a slow process, but surely the conviction that Trump has actually
been a liability that has cost them years of conservative hegemony will
gain momentum in the party? Even Fox has already gone halfway there.

I hope you are right, but he did secure more votes for himself than he
did in 2016, which was kind of shocking. It's hard to read the situation.

And galvanized an even larger percentage to get out and vote against him.
Every action has its equal opposite reaction, and all that.
I also think Giuliani's bizarre Four Seasons Landscaping press conference
could be a watershed moment. To have exposed yourself, entirely through
your own fault, to this much ridicule could be a death blow. The entire
case falls apart when presented with this much bumbling incompetence. I
know people have made fun of Trump for ages and with little effect, but
this feels different.

even i have a tough time believing that story (the four seasons hotel/garden
centre mixup) was not made up by the "libtard media" making the old
conservative idiots look like clowns. Was that really a thing that happened
and not an SNL skit last night?

It is very much true. Not even Sacha Baron Cohen could have come up with
something like this.
https://twitter.com/_RichardHall/status/1325088995773132803
Ciao,
Werner

Thought you might enjoy this.

https://twitter.com/drsimonashworth/status/1325555072537866243?s=21

Futbolmetrix

2020-11-07 23:17:20 UTC

Post by Al Kamista
The 4 year nightmare is over. Thank heavens.

Politics doesn't always suck.

ixion martin - GdBx

2020-11-07 23:25:13 UTC

On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, Al

Post by Al Kamista
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as of
today. While Biden has multiple paths to victory, Trump has
no path if he loses Florida. Right now the RCP average has
Biden +3.7 in FL, while the 538 average has him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13% he
has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a little less
than calling the right number on the roll of a die.
Certainly possible.

The 4 year nightmare is over.

I would say it starts.
And how to be happy to see the most powerful country with a
president elected thanks to massive scam ?

--
Ixion
La VAR est une technologie qui a été mise
en place pour envoyer Bordeaux en L2.

The Doctor

2020-11-07 23:26:14 UTC

On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, Al

Post by Al Kamista
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as of
today. While Biden has multiple paths to victory, Trump has
no path if he loses Florida. Right now the RCP average has
Biden +3.7 in FL, while the 538 average has him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13% he
has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a little less
than calling the right number on the roll of a die.
Certainly possible.

The 4 year nightmare is over.

I would say it starts.
And how to be happy to see the most powerful country with a
president elected thanks to massive scam ?
--
Ixion
La VAR est une technologie qui a été mise
en place pour envoyer Bordeaux en L2.

7 lawsuits in hte USA before someone concedes.

--
Member - Liberal International This is doctor@@nl2k.ab.ca Ici doctor@@nl2k.ab.ca
Yahweh, Queen & country!Never Satan President Republic!Beware AntiChrist rising!
Look at Psalms 14 and 53 on Atheism https://www.empire.kred/ROOTNK?t=94a1f39b
2020/11/11 LEst we forget!

Al Kamista

2020-11-08 13:00:56 UTC

On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, Al

Post by Al Kamista
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as of
today. While Biden has multiple paths to victory, Trump has
no path if he loses Florida. Right now the RCP average has
Biden +3.7 in FL, while the 538 average has him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13% he
has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a little less
than calling the right number on the roll of a die.
Certainly possible.

The 4 year nightmare is over.

I would say it starts.
And how to be happy to see the most powerful country with a
president elected thanks to massive scam ?

What scam is that?

ixion martin - GdBx

2020-11-08 13:05:16 UTC

On Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 6:25:15 PM UTC-5, ixion

On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, Al

Post by Al Kamista
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as
of today. While Biden has multiple paths to victory,
Trump has no path if he loses Florida. Right now the RCP
average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while the 538 average has
him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13%
he has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a
little less than calling the right number on the roll of
a die. Certainly possible.

The 4 year nightmare is over.

I would say it starts.
And how to be happy to see the most powerful country with a
president elected thanks to massive scam ?

What scam is that?

Open your eyes.

--
Ixion
En coupe d'Europe ou en sélection, quand on dit
diplomatiquement que l'arbitre
n'était pas dans un bon soir, c'est toujours la France ou le
club français qui morfle.

Al Kamista

2020-11-08 13:10:30 UTC

On Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 6:25:15 PM UTC-5, ixion

On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, Al

Post by Al Kamista
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as
of today. While Biden has multiple paths to victory,
Trump has no path if he loses Florida. Right now the RCP
average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while the 538 average has
him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13%
he has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a
little less than calling the right number on the roll of
a die. Certainly possible.

The 4 year nightmare is over.

I would say it starts.
And how to be happy to see the most powerful country with a
president elected thanks to massive scam ?

What scam is that?

Open your eyes.

If you have a point to make, please make it, rather than act like a creepy and cryptic sage.

The Doctor

2020-11-08 13:12:14 UTC

On Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 6:25:15 PM UTC-5, ixion

On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, Al

Post by Al Kamista
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as
of today. While Biden has multiple paths to victory,
Trump has no path if he loses Florida. Right now the RCP
average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while the 538 average has
him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13%
he has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a
little less than calling the right number on the roll of
a die. Certainly possible.

The 4 year nightmare is over.

I would say it starts.
And how to be happy to see the most powerful country with a
president elected thanks to massive scam ?

What scam is that?

Open your eyes.

If you have a point to make, please make it, rather than act like a creepy and cryptic sage.

Is someone saying illegal ballots processed?

Lily White

2020-11-08 13:46:18 UTC

On Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 6:25:15 PM UTC-5, ixion

On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, Al

Post by Al Kamista
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as
of today. While Biden has multiple paths to victory,
Trump has no path if he loses Florida. Right now the RCP
average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while the 538 average has
him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13%
he has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a
little less than calling the right number on the roll of
a die. Certainly possible.

The 4 year nightmare is over.

I would say it starts.
And how to be happy to see the most powerful country with a
president elected thanks to massive scam ?

What scam is that?

Open your eyes.

If you have a point to make, please make it, rather than act like a
creepy and cryptic sage.

Is someone saying illegal ballots processed?

YEAH,INNIT THE USA FER FUCKS SAKE HOLE CUNTRY INNIT ILLEGAL FER FUCKS SAKE BUNCH OF TROGS INNIT! OPE THEY KILL EACH OTHER DE FUCKIN USELESS AHOLES.

Post by The Doctor
--
Yahweh, Queen & country!Never Satan President Republic!Beware AntiChrist rising!
Look at Psalms 14 and 53 on Atheism https://www.empire.kred/ROOTNK?t=94a1f39b
2020/11/11 LEst we forget!

Al Kamista

2020-11-08 14:00:03 UTC

On Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 6:25:15 PM UTC-5, ixion

On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, Al

Post by Al Kamista
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as
of today. While Biden has multiple paths to victory,
Trump has no path if he loses Florida. Right now the RCP
average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while the 538 average has
him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13%
he has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a
little less than calling the right number on the roll of
a die. Certainly possible.

The 4 year nightmare is over.

I would say it starts.
And how to be happy to see the most powerful country with a
president elected thanks to massive scam ?

What scam is that?

Open your eyes.

If you have a point to make, please make it, rather than act like a
creepy and cryptic sage.

Is someone saying illegal ballots processed?

I think that's what he's implying.

Isn't he the same guy who thinks that the UEFA referees have a conspiracy against French teams? At least he's consistent in being a crackpot.

Binder Dundat

2020-11-08 14:33:31 UTC

On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, Al

Post by Al Kamista
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as
of today. While Biden has multiple paths to victory,
Trump has no path if he loses Florida. Right now the RCP
average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while the 538 average has
him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13%
he has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a
little less than calling the right number on the roll of
a die. Certainly possible.

The 4 year nightmare is over.

I would say it starts.
And how to be happy to see the most powerful country with a
president elected thanks to massive scam ?

What scam is that?

Open your eyes.

If you have a point to make, please make it, rather than act like a
creepy and cryptic sage.

Is someone saying illegal ballots processed?

I think that's what he's implying.
Isn't he the same guy who thinks that the UEFA referees have a conspiracy against French teams? At least he's consistent in being a crackpot.

I think the "crackpots" are the people who think THE USA is this virtuous country that does everything legally and morally, everything about the country is exploitative, dirty and illegal. This is a country that has its so called greatness based upon illegally taking people in chains from another land and making them work for them for free. Yeah, if i have a company and dont need to pay my workers, it is gonna do great. This is a country that creates wars in foreign lands in order to exploit those people. This is a nation of people that can not produce a proper vehicle, but produces unlimited bombs and fighter jests and missiles and what not, while over half the population have no healthcare, improper nutrition and an education system ranking below Hati. So yeah, I certainly except this election and every election the backwards idiots have ever run to be crooked.

Al Kamista

2020-11-08 14:55:12 UTC

On Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 6:25:15 PM UTC-5, ixion

On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, Al

Post by Al Kamista
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as
of today. While Biden has multiple paths to victory,
Trump has no path if he loses Florida. Right now the RCP
average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while the 538 average has
him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13%
he has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a
little less than calling the right number on the roll of
a die. Certainly possible.

The 4 year nightmare is over.

I would say it starts.
And how to be happy to see the most powerful country with a
president elected thanks to massive scam ?

What scam is that?

Open your eyes.

If you have a point to make, please make it, rather than act like a
creepy and cryptic sage.

Is someone saying illegal ballots processed?

I think that's what he's implying.
Isn't he the same guy who thinks that the UEFA referees have a conspiracy against French teams? At least he's consistent in being a crackpot.

The fact that the US is a deeply hypocritical country that has exploited people domestically and internationally for its own selfish gains for centuries is without question. That it could have people tampering with its elections is also not out of the realm of possibility. But the country's dubious moral compass is *not evidence* that this election was tampered with. And if there's no evidence then it's just bullshit peddled by a pathologically-lying narcissistic conman, and lapped up by his gullible supporters and the general low-IQ-conspiracy-theorist-at-large posse.

ixion martin - GdBx

2020-11-08 21:46:00 UTC

On Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 8:12:17 AM UTC-5, The Doctor

On Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 8:05:18 AM UTC-5, ixion

On Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 6:25:15 PM UTC-5, ixion

On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, Al

Post by Al Kamista
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory
as of today. While Biden has multiple paths to
victory, Trump has no path if he loses Florida. Right
now the RCP average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while the
538 average has him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At
13% he has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e.
a little less than calling the right number on the
roll of a die. Certainly possible.

The 4 year nightmare is over.

I would say it starts.
And how to be happy to see the most powerful country
with a president elected thanks to massive scam ?

What scam is that?

Open your eyes.

If you have a point to make, please make it, rather than
act like a creepy and cryptic sage.

Is someone saying illegal ballots processed?

I think that's what he's implying.
Isn't he the same guy who thinks that the UEFA referees have
a conspiracy against French teams? At least he's consistent
in being a crackpot.

Yes I am, because I open my eyes. Watch Chelsea-Rennes from
last week, a new example of my madness, I guess.

After all, I don't care about US scams, it is not my country.
But I have some difficulties to see why a guy who confuse his
children and grandchildren may mean the end of a nightmare. At
least, it is the beginning of another one.

But I said it, I don't care, I only hope he will leave us
alone.

--
Ixion
J’ai un ami de 71 ans, une jambe de bois, un oeil en verre,
un crochet à la place de la main droite, qui rêve de jouer
à nouveau au foot. Il va postuler aux GdBx, il a sa chance.

Al Kamista

2020-11-09 20:01:50 UTC

On Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 8:12:17 AM UTC-5, The Doctor

On Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 8:05:18 AM UTC-5, ixion

On Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 6:25:15 PM UTC-5, ixion

On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, Al

Post by Al Kamista
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory
as of today. While Biden has multiple paths to
victory, Trump has no path if he loses Florida. Right
now the RCP average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while the
538 average has him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At
13% he has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e.
a little less than calling the right number on the
roll of a die. Certainly possible.

The 4 year nightmare is over.

I would say it starts.
And how to be happy to see the most powerful country
with a president elected thanks to massive scam ?

What scam is that?

Open your eyes.

If you have a point to make, please make it, rather than
act like a creepy and cryptic sage.

Is someone saying illegal ballots processed?

I think that's what he's implying.
Isn't he the same guy who thinks that the UEFA referees have
a conspiracy against French teams? At least he's consistent
in being a crackpot.

Yes I am, because I open my eyes. Watch Chelsea-Rennes from
last week, a new example of my madness, I guess.
After all, I don't care about US scams, it is not my country.
But I have some difficulties to see why a guy who confuse his
children and grandchildren may mean the end of a nightmare. At
least, it is the beginning of another one.
But I said it, I don't care, I only hope he will leave us
alone.

Biden is no inspiration and a pure establishment candidate, but if at the very least he rejoins global efforts to combat climate change, doesn't put little children in cages, and raises taxes on the richest Americans, that will be progress.

And you needn't worry about France. If anyone, it's third world peoples that bear the biggest brunt of American foreign policy.

Jesus Petry

2020-11-10 12:11:57 UTC

On Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 8:05:18 AM UTC-5, ixion

On Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 6:25:15 PM UTC-5, ixion

On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, Al

Post by Al Kamista
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory
as of today. While Biden has multiple paths to
victory, Trump has no path if he loses Florida. Right
now the RCP average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while the
538 average has him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At
13% he has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e.
a little less than calling the right number on the
roll of a die. Certainly possible.

The 4 year nightmare is over.

I would say it starts.
And how to be happy to see the most powerful country
with a president elected thanks to massive scam ?

What scam is that?

Open your eyes.

If you have a point to make, please make it, rather than
act like a creepy and cryptic sage.

Is someone saying illegal ballots processed?

I think that's what he's implying.
Isn't he the same guy who thinks that the UEFA referees have
a conspiracy against French teams? At least he's consistent
in being a crackpot.

Yes I am, because I open my eyes. Watch Chelsea-Rennes from
last week, a new example of my madness, I guess.
After all, I don't care about US scams, it is not my country.
But I have some difficulties to see why a guy who confuse his
children and grandchildren may mean the end of a nightmare. At
least, it is the beginning of another one.
But I said it, I don't care, I only hope he will leave us
alone.

Biden is no inspiration and a pure establishment candidate, but if at the very least he rejoins global efforts to combat climate change, doesn't put little children in cages, and raises taxes on the richest Americans, that will be progress.
And you needn't worry about France. If anyone, it's third world peoples that bear the biggest brunt of American foreign policy.

I generally root for the most moderate guy.

I suspect the rushing of the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court helped Trump to lose.
If the balance of the Court were on the balance, I guess more Republicans would have the incentive to put up with the orange guy.

Tchau!
Jesus Petry

Bruce Scott

2020-11-10 13:13:04 UTC

Post by Jesus Petry
I generally root for the most moderate guy.

That's how we Oregon republicans used to do it, way back when. For me,
before Reagan.

Post by Jesus Petry
I suspect the rushing of the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett to the
Supreme Court helped Trump to lose. If the balance of the Court were
on the balance, I guess more Republicans would have the incentive to
put up with the orange guy.

She was put there in the first place to (1) ditch Obamacare and (2) be
ready to support Trump in a legal takeover should he lose.

It should be pretty obvious that the Trump appointees should recuse(*)
themselves from the case due to conflict of interest, but I also think
that lot is far too shameless for such a thing.

(*) "recuse" is a legal term for someone (judge, etc) to stay out of a
decision due to present or prior relationship to one of the parties.
There's plenty detail on it on the en.wikipedia page!

--
ciao, Bruce

2020-11-11 02:28:38 UTC

Post by Bruce Scott

Post by Jesus Petry
I generally root for the most moderate guy.

That's how we Oregon republicans used to do it, way back when. For me,
before Reagan.

She was put there in the first place to (1) ditch Obamacare and

This is far from a given though. It has been through a few challenges
already, no ? With conservative judges (at least Roberts) upholding it.
The current challenge is about the "mandate" part, I gather, which is
moot point since the republicans set the fine for not getting insurance
at Zero dollars.

(2) be

Post by Bruce Scott
ready to support Trump in a legal takeover should he lose.

Again, I am reasonably optimistic that this will not happen, since USans
do mostly have a sense of fair play, and several republicans have spoken
out against this. They also have to tread delicately with two run-off
elections to come in January in Georgia.

If Biden were smart he might appoint Collins or Romney to his cabinet,
setting up some special elections fairly soon. The Maine one should be
winnable without Collins there.

Post by Bruce Scott
It should be pretty obvious that the Trump appointees should recuse(*)
themselves from the case due to conflict of interest, but I also think
that lot is far too shameless for such a thing.
(*) "recuse" is a legal term for someone (judge, etc) to stay out of a
decision due to present or prior relationship to one of the parties.
There's plenty detail on it on the en.wikipedia page!

Bruce Scott

2020-11-11 11:31:14 UTC

[Barrett]

Post by MH

Post by Bruce Scott
She was put there in the first place to (1) ditch Obamacare and

Yes but with some argument I don't care to go through they are now arguing
that this provision makes it unconstitutional. On the other hand, the SC
has hinted (yesterday) they may not play along.

Post by MH
(2) be

Post by Bruce Scott
ready to support Trump in a legal takeover should he lose.

Again, I am reasonably optimistic that this will not happen, since USans
do mostly have a sense of fair play, and several republicans have spoken

mostly (1) ex types (eg, GWB) and (2) those already opposed to Trump
others seem to be afraid to break ranks

Post by MH
out against this. They also have to tread delicately with two run-off
elections to come in January in Georgia.

This is the other reason. McConnell of course says rubbish he would not
say if it were the other way around.

Post by MH
If Biden were smart he might appoint Collins or Romney to his cabinet,
setting up some special elections fairly soon. The Maine one should be
winnable without Collins there.

Might be a nice move. But more chess like than is Biden's style.

--
ciao, Bruce

Al Kamista

2020-11-12 14:22:52 UTC

Post by Bruce Scott
[Barrett]

Post by Bruce Scott
She was put there in the first place to (1) ditch Obamacare and

Yes but with some argument I don't care to go through they are now arguing
that this provision makes it unconstitutional. On the other hand, the SC
has hinted (yesterday) they may not play along.

(2) be

Post by Bruce Scott
ready to support Trump in a legal takeover should he lose.

Again, I am reasonably optimistic that this will not happen, since USans
do mostly have a sense of fair play, and several republicans have spoken

mostly (1) ex types (eg, GWB) and (2) those already opposed to Trump
others seem to be afraid to break ranks

Not all. Christie and some others "within ranks" have spoken out against this facade. Also, there's a distinction between those openly alleging fraud (like Graham and Cruz) and those playing it safe like McConnell who are instead saying that Trump has a legal right to challenge it in court, which while subtly insidious, is factually correct.

Bruce Scott

2020-11-12 15:13:35 UTC

Post by Al Kamista
Not all. Christie and some others "within ranks" have spoken out
against this facade. Also, there's a distinction between those openly

But only those already on the outs with Trump. Recall Christie was a
toadie like Rudy G until he didn't get his cookies. I need to see the
ones in power say it.

Post by Al Kamista
alleging fraud (like Graham and Cruz) and those playing it safe like
McConnell who are instead saying that Trump has a legal right to
challenge it in court, which while subtly insidious, is factually
correct.

But it doesn't stop the transitional efforts (eg: Nixon, 1960, who
launched several challenges which weren't resolved until December)

--
ciao, Bruce

Binder Dundat

2020-11-12 14:34:41 UTC