Discussion:
Fantasy Scout - Chat thread, August 2024
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milivella
2024-08-01 02:21:17 UTC
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[The rules of this thread are simple: write what you want, reply if you
want, ignore if you have to.]

---

How do you feel about the June-July results?

As you may imagine, I am busy updating predictions/picks/archive/etc.,
but I can tell you one thing: when I saw Jackson's 6th cycle score, I
cry-laughed.

But I mostly cried.
--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
2024-08-01 02:35:18 UTC
Permalink
The temporary predictions have been updated:
http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/predictedrankings.htm

Feel free to comment!

--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
2024-08-07 02:20:33 UTC
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Now the non-temporary predictions, by Daniele, have been published:
http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/predictedrankings.htm
Post by milivella
http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/predictedrankings.htm
Feel free to comment!
--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
2024-08-01 03:20:18 UTC
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Post by milivella
How do you feel about the June-July results?
OK, one more. My rank in each cycle (points scored in this update = gain):

Cycle: Rank
3: 3rd
4: tied 2nd
5: 4th, 1 point from 3rd
6: 3rd (tied)

Systematically 3rd = arguably best scout overall.

(The first and last two cycles don't count, for _obvious_ reasons.)

--
Cheers
milivella
Futbolmetrix
2024-08-01 16:39:48 UTC
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Post by milivella
[The rules of this thread are simple: write what you want, reply if you
want, ignore if you have to.]
---
How do you feel about the June-July results?
I am devastated that in the end I fell 0.01 points short of overtaking
Jesus in the Cycle 1 standings. I demand a recount!
milivella
2024-08-02 01:55:27 UTC
Permalink
Post by Futbolmetrix
I am devastated that in the end I fell 0.01 points short of overtaking
Jesus in the Cycle 1 standings.
Unfortunately, Neymar may get some more caps and cancel this so-sweet
situation.

--
Cheers
milivella
Futbolmetrix
2024-08-02 15:31:02 UTC
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Post by milivella
Post by Futbolmetrix
I am devastated that in the end I fell 0.01 points short of overtaking
Jesus in the Cycle 1 standings.
Unfortunately, Neymar may get some more caps and cancel this so-sweet
situation.
Ha! I have checked the numbers of Cycle 1 players, and I have found a
couple of discrepancies.

Hernanes (Jesus' pick) has 27 caps and 2 goals (according to both
wikipedia and TransefrMarkt). He was picked by Jesus when he had one
cap, so he should give Jesus a total of 28 points, not 25 as listed on
the site.

Neymar, again according to both wikipedia and TransferMarkt, has 128
caps and 79 goals, a total of 207 points, not the 202 listed on the site
(he was picked by Jesus at zero caps).

Therefore, Jesus is still in second place, but by more than 0.01 points.
Take that, milivella!

(Now, do I want to double check MH's players? Hmm...)
Futbolmetrix
2024-08-02 20:14:56 UTC
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Post by Futbolmetrix
Ha! I have checked the numbers of Cycle 1 players, and I have found a
couple of discrepancies.
Hernanes (Jesus' pick) has 27 caps and 2 goals (according to both
wikipedia and TransefrMarkt). He was picked by Jesus when he had one
cap, so he should give Jesus a total of 28 points, not 25 as listed on
the site.
Neymar, again according to both wikipedia and TransferMarkt, has 128
caps and 79 goals, a total of 207 points, not the 202 listed on the site
(he was picked by Jesus at zero caps).
Therefore, Jesus is still in second place, but by more than 0.01 points.
Take that, milivella!
Come to think of it, this was probably a deliberate ploy by the Evil
One: dupe me into thinking that I had overtaken Jesus, and then suddenly
reveal that he had missed a number of caps and goals...
milivella
2024-08-03 02:42:33 UTC
Permalink
Post by Futbolmetrix
Post by Futbolmetrix
Ha! I have checked the numbers of Cycle 1 players, and I have found a
couple of discrepancies.
Hernanes (Jesus' pick) has 27 caps and 2 goals (according to both
wikipedia and TransefrMarkt). He was picked by Jesus when he had one
cap, so he should give Jesus a total of 28 points, not 25 as listed on
the site.
Neymar, again according to both wikipedia and TransferMarkt, has 128
caps and 79 goals, a total of 207 points, not the 202 listed on the site
(he was picked by Jesus at zero caps).
Therefore, Jesus is still in second place, but by more than 0.01 points.
Take that, milivella!
Come to think of it, this was probably a deliberate ploy by the Evil
One: dupe me into thinking that I had overtaken Jesus, and then suddenly
reveal that he had missed a number of caps and goals...
Don't give me ideas...

Anyway, as far as I know, Wikipedia does not have a list of the players'
caps, so I checked my list against Transfermarkt. TL;DR (or WR = Won't
Read): the FS data are a mess, and I plan to fix it.

Now, to the gritty details...

Hernanes:

1. 2011-11-10 vs. Gabon: I marked Hernanes' goal in the line-ups file,
but I did not add in the caps file. Added.

2. 2014-06-03 vs. Panama: I had the match in the line-ups file, but I
forgot to add it in the caps file! So all the following players just got
1 point (2 in the case of Neymar and Willian, who scored one goal each):
David Luiz
Dante
Marcelo
Luiz Gustavo
Neymar
Hernanes
Jo
Willian

3. 2014-06-12 vs. Croatia: I missed Hernanes' cap. Added.

Neymar:

1+2. 2012-11-14 vs. Colombia: I missed Neymar's cap+goal. Added.

3+4. 2014-06-03 vs. Panama: see above.

5. 2017-08-31 vs. Ecuador: this is the worst of them all. I marked the
first two and the last two players, but not the ones in the middle?!
Anyway, the following players just got 1 point:
Marcelo
Paulinho Bezerra
Casemiro
Renato Augusto
Willian
Neymar
Gabriel Jesus

I also noticed that I had two matches with the wrong date, and one with
the wrong opponent (but only for some players?!).

The changes will be visible when I will upload the last picks of the 8th
cycle (tomorrow? the next day?).

On the whole... as I wrote in the mailing list, I have been considering
the option to automate the counting of points. The Hernanes+Neymar
debacle just gave much weight to the automation option.

--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
2024-08-03 20:51:51 UTC
Permalink
I gave an AI (Gemini 1.5 Pro) the following pages
http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/previousrules.htm
http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/rankingsarchive.htm
http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/playersarchive.htm
and asked it to narrate the story of the 1st cycle in the style of a
fiction writer. It picked Tolkien. (I haven't checked whether the
details are correct.)

## The First Age of Fantasy Scout: Of Brothers, Banners, and a Long Game

It began in the year 2007 of the Third Millennium, in the digital realms
of rec.sport.soccer, where the wise Andrea the Bold, loremaster of the
beautiful game, forged a new contest, christened "Fantasy Scout."
Unlike the fleeting, seasonal contests of other realms, this game called
for a keen eye, a patient heart, and a vision that spanned years, not
mere months.

Three brothers, sons of the same footballing lineage, stepped forth to
answer the challenge. Andrea the Bold, the eldest, a weaver of intricate
strategies, assembled a vast banner of players, seeking strength in
numbers. Alessandro the Sharp-Eyed, the second son, a keen judge of
young blood, chose a smaller, more potent company of those who could
find the net with unerring aim. Alberto the Steadfast, the youngest, a
bold strategist in his own right, joined the fray in 2008, adding fuel
to the fraternal fire.

Their rivalry, a saga whispered in digital taverns and debated in grand
forum halls, would echo through the ages. And so the first cycle
commenced, a grand tapestry woven with the threads of fate, talent, and
time.

In the early years of the cycle, Andrea the Bold held sway, his vast
banner seemingly unassailable. Yet Alessandro the Sharp-Eyed, biding
his time, saw his chosen few amass a growing power. By the end of 2008,
he had eclipsed his brother, claiming the top spot. A new contender,
Daniele the Swift, entered the lists, his sharp instincts quickly
earning him a place among the leaders.

The year 2009 saw Alessandro the Sharp-Eyed further solidify his hold on
the summit. He resisted the temptation to expand his ranks, trusting in
the potency of his original picks. Daniele the Swift, mirroring his
brother's strategy, also saw his fortunes rise. But the winds of
fortune are ever fickle in Fantasy Scout, and the true test lay in the
years beyond the initial muster.

For in 2010, the picking phase concluded, and the long game commenced.
No new names could be added to the banners, yet the players themselves
continued their journeys, their fates entwined with the fortunes of the
scouts who had chosen them.

As the years unfurled, a new challenger emerged. Tom Two, the Silent
Stalker, had quietly assembled a formidable company. Unburdened by the
weight of a large banner, his chosen few, blessed by the capricious gods
of form and fitness, ascended to the pinnacle in 2012.

But Michael the Steadfast, a master of patience and long-term vision,
remained a constant presence among the leaders. His banner, weathered
by time but bolstered by the consistency of his picks, steadily climbed
the rankings. Lloris the Lionheart, Khedira the Unyielding, and Ozil
the Enchanter, all answered his call, their loyalty echoing in the halls
of international renown.

By 2014, Michael the Steadfast had ascended to the throne, usurping Tom
Two, the Silent Stalker. Yet the saga was far from over. For in the
twilight of the cycle, a new contender, Sid Debgupta the Unforeseen,
rose from the shadows. His player Busquets, the Unsung Maestro, emerged
as a prodigious scorer, defying the expectations of even the wisest
scouts. By 2019, Sid Debgupta had claimed the crown, a testament to the
enduring power of hidden gems and the ever-present element of surprise.

And so, the first age of Fantasy Scout drew to a close, not with a
thunderous finale, but with the quiet, enduring legacy of a game played
across years, not seasons. The first banner had been woven, a tapestry
of triumphs, heartbreaks, and the enduring fascination of a contest
where the players, like heroes of old, wrote their own legends upon the
field.

--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
2024-08-04 04:40:07 UTC
Permalink
Post by milivella
I gave an AI (Gemini 1.5 Pro) the following pages
http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/previousrules.htm
http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/rankingsarchive.htm
http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/playersarchive.htm
I forgot to say that then it asked me the following questions, to which
I gave the following answers.

"How was the game created?"
The game was created by Andrea V. because he thought that existing
fantasy soccer games, being seasonal, did not reward discovering future
stars (he did not know of dynasty fantasy games back then). He
advertised the game on the newsgroup rec.sport.soccer, from which most
of the first scout came. The game was talked about in the newspaper La
Gazzetta dello Sport in 2009, and this caused the arrival of many
Italian scouts (as you see, few of them lasted). Then Andrea V.
advertised the game on Reddit, and there Jackson and all the scouts who
joined since 2018 found about the game.

"What is the community of players like?"
The games is talked about mainly on rec.sport.soccer, where of course
people talk about all things football, not only Fantasy Scout, and on
r/fantasyscout, a Fantasy Scout-specific subreddit. Not much is said
monthly, but there is constant banter on rec.sport.soccer, and
interesting discussions about the value of the players each scout has
picked once a year on r/fantasyscout. Then, there are private
discussions about banter, score updates, possible rule changes, the
design of the website, predictions, etc.; the most frequent and felt I
know of are Andrea V. with respectively Daniele, Alberto and Jackson.

"Are there any notable rivalries or traditions?"
This is the million-dollar question! :) From my point of view, the main
rivalries are:
* Andrea V. vs. Daniele: they act as they are each other's nemesis, but
they are really great frenemies (don't tell anyone! ;) ). E.g. (but this
is just an example among hundreds :) ) for years, Andrea V. wrote an
email after each round of international matches for years to remind
Daniele that he was catching up in the 3rd cycle.
* Andrea V. vs. Alessandro vs. Alberto: they are brothers. Have I to add
anything? ;)
* Daniele vs. Michael H.: they are two of the "great old people" on
rec.sport.soccer. They respect each other, and this is exactly the
reason why they would like to beat each other!
* Everyone vs. Jackson: the latter is just too good at this game...
* Leon, Rico, Sam and Ville (the "newbies"---even though they are not so
new, by now!) vs. the "Old Guard" (Alberto, Andrea V., Daniele, Jackson,
etc.): the newbie entered the game with passion and hit their stride
quite quickly.
* Leon vs. Rico vs. Sam vs. Ville: not an explicit rivalry, but I guess
each of them would love to be the new star.
Post by milivella
and asked it to narrate the story of the 1st cycle in the style of a
fiction writer. It picked Tolkien. (I haven't checked whether the
details are correct.)
[snip]
jlauridsen
2024-08-07 09:54:54 UTC
Permalink
In other news Thomas Müller (Daniele 1) wins Olympic gold as (half)owner
of the winning horse in individual show jumping.

How many FS points is that worth?
milivella
2024-08-08 02:01:16 UTC
Permalink
Post by jlauridsen
In other news Thomas Müller (Daniele 1) wins Olympic gold as (half)owner
of the winning horse in individual show jumping.
How many FS points is that worth?
Fewer than finding sustainable alternatives to oil-based products, arguably.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathieu_Flamini#Business_care
MH
2024-08-08 18:46:02 UTC
Permalink
Post by jlauridsen
In other news Thomas Müller (Daniele 1) wins Olympic gold as (half)owner
of the winning horse in individual show jumping.
How many FS points is that worth?
Interesting to find out that Müller also OWNS a horse's ass.
milivella
2024-08-10 02:07:37 UTC
Permalink
Post by MH
Post by jlauridsen
In other news Thomas Müller (Daniele 1) wins Olympic gold as (half)owner
of the winning horse in individual show jumping.
How many FS points is that worth?
Interesting to find out that Müller also OWNS a horse's ass.
How many FS points is *this line* worth!

Give this man a place on the podium.

-
MH
2024-08-12 18:13:48 UTC
Permalink
Post by milivella
Post by MH
Post by jlauridsen
In other news Thomas Müller (Daniele 1) wins Olympic gold as (half)owner
of the winning horse in individual show jumping.
How many FS points is that worth?
Interesting to find out that Müller also OWNS a horse's ass.
How many FS points is *this line* worth!
Give this man a place on the podium.
--
milivella
Highly derivative, I am afraid. There was a joke in Academia about a
very wealthy donor who was giving untold millions to a small NE US
University, with the condition that they award an honorary degree to his
favourite racehorse.

The president could not turn down that amount of money, but when it came
time for honorary degrees at the graduation ceremony, prefaced his
remarks with "Well, this is the first time I have awarded an honorary
degree to a whole horse".
milivella
2024-08-13 22:08:28 UTC
Permalink
I have updated the archive pages with the 2023-24 data:
http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/guestpages.htm

--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
2024-08-14 23:32:14 UTC
Permalink
The 2023-24 season

The data I used: http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/rankingsarchive.htm
Previous season:
https://www.novabbs.com/sport/article-flat.php?id=15286&group=rec.sport.soccer#15286

Cycle 1: Sid Debgupta scoring more points with 7 players than anyone
else (including people who picked 29 players) for the 6th year in a row
should not go ignored, but we knew since last year that "[t]he big
questions [we]re: Will Neymar retire from the NT? Will Flick be so
stupid to call up Mueller again? If these two keep scoring, will they be
able to catch up MH's presumably stationary score?" The answers were
respectively no, yes, yes, so the big fact this season is that Daniele
and Jesus surpassed Michael H. (even not counting the points added to
Jesus' amount thanks to Daniele's fair play [even if he was trying to
deducting points from his adversary...]).

Cycle 2: Since 2015-16 to 2021-22, Binder outscored Andrea V. every
season. A single-point win by the latter in 2022-23 only served to
extend the agony. This season, Binder = Gundogan finally surpassed
Andrea V., who had Varane retiring from international football* and
Goetze's second life in the NT ending early. So Binder will finish 2nd,
and Andrea V. is (at least for the time being) 3rd.

* I know, I know, "are you sure that he only retired from
_international_ football?"

To be continued...

--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
2024-08-15 21:47:27 UTC
Permalink
Post by milivella
Cycle 1: Sid Debgupta scoring more points with 7 players than anyone
else (including people who picked 29 players) for the 6th year in a row
should not go ignored, but we knew since last year that "[t]he big
questions [we]re: Will Neymar retire from the NT? Will Flick be so
stupid to call up Mueller again? If these two keep scoring, will they be
able to catch up MH's presumably stationary score?" The answers were
respectively no, yes, yes, so the big fact this season is that Daniele
and Jesus surpassed Michael H. (even not counting the points added to
Jesus' amount thanks to Daniele's fair play [even if he was trying to
deducting points from his adversary...]).
Therefore, 14 years after the end of picking period, the podium seems
locked. Is it actually so? Will something notable happen in the next
seasons? Who will be the last scoring player/scout? Time will tell.

--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
2024-08-15 23:47:02 UTC
Permalink
Post by milivella
The 2023-24 season
Cycle 3:

Nigel, who was in 3rd place at the end of last season, was the 2nd best
scorer in the cycle this season (35 points), thanks to Stones, Ake, and
Coman.

Unfortunately, for the first time since 2017, the best scorer was not
leader Andrea V., but Nigel's direct rival Binder, carried by
Euro-winning captain Morata (3rd best player of the season, with 22
points). Tah and Can also did their job for Binder, who scored 42 points
in total (+1 from recount). Result: Nigel's 2022-23 exploit was
canceled, and Binder retook his place on the podium, where he had stood
since the 2nd year after the end of the picking period, and from which
he was 1 point away last season anyway.

Will this be the final setting of the podium? Not according to the
prediction algorithm, that gives Nigel a 75% chance of finishing among
the top 3! I guess the reason is the younger age of Nigel's squad, with
two under-30 players who have already played for the NT and are still
quite good (Ake and Coman) vs. Binder's lonely Tah.

However, the algorithm already underestimated Binder's potential last
year, predicting he would finish with 217 points. He has already
exceeded that amount!*

Indeed, last year said machinic prediction mislead me. In fact, I
excluded Binder from the analysis of the podium race, which I thought
was between Nigel and Michael H. ...Speaking of which, what happened to
Michael? He did not have a bad season, scoring 20 points, as many as 2nd
placed Daniele. Is he still part of the race to the podium? I guess so,
with Laporte being a starter for the Euro champions, Shaw having scored
fewer points than in the last seasons only because of an injury, and
Goretzka being an international-level player according to many (but not
to Nagelsmann, apparently...). These three may be enough to cover the
50-point gap from Binder---all the more considering that Morata has
talked about retiring from the NT.

Summing up: 10 years in, three scouts still have realistic chances to
stand close to Andrea V. and Daniele on the podium of cycle 3: Binder
(219 points), Nigel (212), Michael H. (178).

* To partially defend the algorithm, Binder almost doubled his
points-per-game (1.44 to 2.73), an impressive achievement for a squad
whose average age was almost 32.

--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
2024-08-16 00:21:25 UTC
Permalink
Post by milivella
Post by milivella
The 2023-24 season
[snip]
Post by milivella
Will this be the final setting of the podium? Not according to the
prediction algorithm, that gives Nigel a 75% chance of finishing among
the top 3! I guess the reason is the younger age of Nigel's squad, with
two under-30 players who have already played for the NT
Actually, "are playing"!
Post by milivella
and are still
quite good (Ake and Coman) vs. Binder's lonely Tah.
--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
2024-08-16 23:20:48 UTC
Permalink
Post by milivella
The 2023-24 season
Cycle 4: the most drastic change was that Alberto went from being the
best scoring scout in the 2022-23 season (2.79 points per game) to being
the third best (1.65). The main reason was Asensio being injured in the
autumnal international rounds and then being left out of the Spain squad
for the Euro.

Now:

1. The cycle, which has completed its 8th season after the end of the
picking period, is in the decelerating phase, with the scouts having
scored in average fewer points per game than in the previous season once
again*, so Alberto's deceleration is consistent with the trend. ...But
Alberto lost 1.14 PPG vs. the average 0.29.

2. Alberto still scored more points than his main rival for the podium
Abubakr = Mbappe. ...But Mbappe is still 25, while Alberto's scoring
players are already 29 (Kimmich) and 27 (Dembele), so Abubakr is
expected to keep scoring "at full speed" when Alberto will slow down.

3. Alberto's score still scored more in 2023-24 than in the 3 seasons
before 2022-23. ...But this means that, in the mature phase of the
cycle, he's more a 1.XX PPG scout than an almost-3 guy.

The result of all this is that, if Alberto's 2022-23 impressive
performance had meant an improvement of his outlook such that he was
given by the algorithm a 60% chance to finish on the podium, his less
solid 2023-24 performance means that his chances go down to 51%.

Anyway, what I am trying to say is not that Alberto's situation is
dire**, but rather that the overall outlook of the cycle has not changed
much since the algorithm has started telling us how many chances the
scouts have to finish on the podium:
Scout 2019 2024
Andrea V. 84% 88%
Alberto 58% 51%
Abubakr 54% 60%
In five years, the situation has basically remained the same... Will the
next season finally be resolutive?

The summary would be: not much has happened this season in this cycle.
The (relatively) most drastic changes (in actual and predicted scores)
are negative changes for Alberto, but they are not (absolutely) drastic.
So the situation is mostly unchanged.

* It has happened 4 times in the 6 seasons since 2018-19.

** Indeed, one can find counter-replies to the three reasons why
Alberto's season was bad. (1) Kimmich does not seem likely to lose his
spot in the German NT and Dembele seems to have solified his place in
the French one, so Alberto should not lose points in the next seasons.
(2) Abubakr's fate, being linked to just one player, is more uncertain:
a career-ending injury for a scoring player would mean 100% damage to
Abu, but only 50% damage to Alb. (3) ...So Alberto may score _few_
points, but he is more probable to score _some_ points.

--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
2024-08-17 22:35:27 UTC
Permalink
Post by milivella
The 2023-24 season
Cycle 5

Most important event:
- Foden and Havertz had great club seasons, which makes them more likely
to keep scoring FS points for years.
- Therefore, Binder is now more likely to win the race for the podium.
- Therefore, Alberto has fewer chances to do so.
- This race (which also involves Michael H. and Daniele) is still very
tight, though. And the "speed" (= points per game) of the scouts
involved has been remained quite constant this season compared to the
previous one. So nothing very important has happened.

Other notable things:

- In the last two seasons, Michael H. and Binder's chances to finish on
the podium have improved twice, while Alberto and Daniele's have
worsened twice. The result is a big difference from the situation two
years ago:
Scout 2022 2024
Daniele 70% 18%
Alberto 70% 51%
Michael H. 47% 67%
Binder 13% 64%
It seems to me that the most important cause of this reversal of fate
were Binder's four players fulfilling their potential, and Daniele's
players having their international career cut short (Abraham, Calabria,
Emerson Palmieri, Kimpembe, Lemar, Pope) or losing steam anyway
(Locatelli)---at least for the moment. Did Daniele's strategy to pick
players about to debut for the NT backfire this time?

- Binder has a higher average predicted score than Michael H., has 58%
chance to beat him and has more chances than him to win the cycle, but
he has fewer chances than him to finish on the podium.

--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
2024-08-17 23:44:19 UTC
Permalink
Post by milivella
Cycle 5
[snip]

This whole comment is probably too focused on predictions and club
football performance. Alberto has scored fewer points per match than in
the previous season twice in a row, and Binder has done the same, just
in the opposite direction*. The result is that the gap between Alberto
and Binder, which was 86 points 2 seasons ago, has now narrowed to 62.

* The most dramatic change in pace has happened for them both in
2022-23, but the trend has continued this season---indeed, with more
matches played, it has caused a bigger effect.

--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
2024-08-17 23:53:32 UTC
Permalink
Post by milivella
Post by milivella
Cycle 5
[snip]
This whole comment is probably too focused on predictions and club
football performance. Alberto has scored fewer points per match than in
the previous season twice in a row, and Binder has done the same, just
in the opposite direction*. The result is that the gap between Alberto
and Binder, which was 86 points 2 seasons ago, has now narrowed to 62.
* The most dramatic change in pace has happened for them both in
2022-23, but the trend has continued this season---indeed, with more
matches played, it has caused a bigger effect.
Take the top 5 players in the overall ranking: Jackson Michael Alberto
Binder Daniele (also the only ones with realistic chances to finish on
the podium). The seasonal ranking of these scouts is the same as their
overall ranking, with one exception: Binder outscored Alberto this
season. Whatever way you look at it, the tension in this cycle right now
is the race between these two.

--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
2024-08-18 22:11:35 UTC
Permalink
Post by milivella
The 2023-24 season
Cycle 6

Seasonal scores:
114 Jackson
062 Leon
052 Guillaume
046 Andrea V.
043 Alberto
... [5 more scouts here]
027 Ville

Current ranking:
+141 Jackson
+070 Alberto
+044 Ville
+038 Leon
.... [2 more scouts here]
+028 Andrea V.
.... [9 more scouts here]
-002 Guillaume

Jackson, already the leader and sure winner of the cycle, beat the
all-time all-cycle seasonal score record (it was Daniele's cycle 4 in
2017-18: 100 points).

Since 2019-20 to 2021-22, the top three scouts were clearly Jackson,
Leon and Ville. Since 2022-23, the former two have kept scoring a lot,
with Jackson clearly above Leon. But after them, now there are Andrea V.
and Alberto. Indeed, Andrea V. and Alberto are proceeding at a similar
rate since the end of the picking period. However, Alberto, having
picked fewer players, is ahead of Andrea in the ranking; and of course
he may remain ahead, if Andrea does not start seriously outscoring him.
So, if Ville does not get back to his previous form, he could be
overcome by Leon in the following season, so that in one year the
ranking would be 1 Jackson, 2 Alberto, 3 Leon. This may even be the
final top three, with Alberto and Leon fighting for the second place.

Guillaume's seasonal score was very good, because of his 3 starters for
Belgium. Unfortunately, these players are not young: Trossard is 29,
Castagne 28, and Faes 26. Therefore, Guillaume does not have many
chances to reach the podium.

--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
2024-08-19 21:58:51 UTC
Permalink
Post by milivella
The 2023-24 season
Cycle 7

Seasonal scores:
98 Alberto
87 Leon
67 Jackson
59 Ville

Current ranking:
+27 Tom Two
+20 Leon
... [4 scouts here]
-07 Alberto
-11 Jackson
-53 Ville

Let's start from last season (the first after the end of the picking
period). The best scoring scouts were clearly Leon and Jackson, who
basically scored the same amount of points. But Jackson's top players
are younger than Leon's, so it was fair to consider Jackson the
favourite to win the cycle, with Leon his most dangerous opponent.

What happened this season?

* Leon basically scored the same number of points per match as last
year. Don't let this assertion fool you---Leon was going at a great
rate, and with the higher number of matches this season it translated to
the 6th best seasonal performance ever in all cycles.

* Jackson decelerated---he decelerated *hard*. It was the worst
deceleration in the cycle season---indeed in any cycle after the 3rd-.
Julian alvarez, Malacia, Balde, Tchouameni, Phillips all scored less
points than last season (despite having more chances this season); only
Guehi stepped up.

So now Leon is scoring more than Jackson. His squad is still older, but
one can no more consider him behind Jackson in the race for the title.
But another very important thing happened in the cycle:

* Alberto accelerated---and yes, he accelerated *hard*. It was the best
acceleration this year in any cycle where you cannot pick anymore.
Darwin Nunez, Orel Mangala, Ugarte, Onana, Lucas Martinez all scored
more points per match played by their national team. The result was the
3rd best seasonal performance ever in all cycles, just 2 points shy of
the previous record (which, again, was smashed by Jackson in cycle 6).

So now we have three serious contenders for the title.

What will happen? Only time will tell, of course. One thing one can note
is that Jackson may have the one of them having the players with most
chances to break into the national team in Botman and Ramsey.

Behind the mentioned three, one must cite at least Ville. Ville's score
was the 4th best in this cycle, not far from Jackson's, so he has
chances to reach at least the podium.

--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
2024-08-22 03:19:57 UTC
Permalink
Post by milivella
The 2023-24 season
Cycle 8

*Seasonal scores:*

84 Leon

79 Ville

55 Rico

50 Sam

*Current ranking:*

+003 Michael H.

.... [2 scouts here]

-097 Leon

-134 Ville

-153 Rico

-159 Sam

This cycle started with a boom! Indeed, *two* booms... Leon and Ville
had the best seasonal performance ever at year 0 of a cycle (i.e. in the
last year of the picking period), both by (a) points and (b) points per
match [1].

Leon was already scoring at an impressive rate in the previous season,
where he had the best point-per-match at year -1 ever [2]. To catch up
with him, Ville had to have the best seasonal improvement ever (in
points scored by a scout's player; 2nd best improvement in point per
match, just behind Andrea V.'s incredible 2016-17 season in cycle 3).
Anyway, by now you get it---Leon and Ville have started this cycle very
well.

Will these two be able to keep this pace? Anything can happen, of
course, but one can note that, while Leon's best player (Fullkrueg) is
already 31, Ville's (Yamal) is just 17. However, generally they both
have reasonably young squads (21 to 22 year old).

Apart from Leon and Ville, the other two survivors from the Great Reddit
Entry of 2018, i.e. Rico and Sam, also had very good seasons [3]. The
younglings have mastered the game! We should definitely keep an eye on
Rico and Sam as well.

However, the truth is obviously that we should keep an eye on
*everyone*. The results so early in this cycle are not necessarily
indicative of the performance going on. To mention just one example, the
following are the scouts who had the best performance at year 0 of each
cycle, together with their position by predicted ranking now:

1: Michael H., now 4th

2: Michael H., now 1st

3: Binder, now 4th

4: Saintjust, now 7th

5: Jackson, now 1st

6: Leon, now 3rd

7: Jackson, now 3rd

[1] Cycle 1 excluded, as in that case at year 0 scouts had already had
3.5 years to pick players instead of 2.

[2] In this case, Leon beat even the scouts from cycle 1!

--
Cheers
milivella
Werner Pichler
2024-09-04 18:57:27 UTC
Permalink
Post by milivella
Post by milivella
The 2023-24 season
Cycle 5
- Foden and Havertz had great club seasons, which makes them more likely
to keep scoring FS points for years.
- Therefore, Binder is now more likely to win the race for the podium.
- Therefore, Alberto has fewer chances to do so.
This doesn’t help does it

https://www.thescore.com/topsn/news/3066923/koeman-bergwijn-done-with-dutch-national-team-after-saudi-move


Ciao,
Werner
milivella
2024-09-07 02:13:31 UTC
Permalink
Post by Werner Pichler
Post by milivella
Post by milivella
The 2023-24 season
Cycle 5
- Foden and Havertz had great club seasons, which makes them more likely
to keep scoring FS points for years.
- Therefore, Binder is now more likely to win the race for the podium.
- Therefore, Alberto has fewer chances to do so.
This doesn’t help does it
https://www.thescore.com/topsn/news/3066923/koeman-bergwijn-done-with-dutch-national-team-after-saudi-move
Between this and the super-ban to Darwin Nunez and Olivera, the last
days have been brutal to Alberto's situation in the two cycles he is
perform
Werner Pichler
2024-08-19 17:01:38 UTC
Permalink
Post by milivella
The 2023-24 season
The data I used: http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/rankingsarchive.htm
https://www.novabbs.com/sport/article-flat.php?id=15286&group=rec.sport.soccer#15286
Cycle 1: Sid Debgupta scoring more points with 7 players than anyone
else (including people who picked 29 players) for the 6th year in a row
should not go ignored, but we knew since last year that "[t]he big
questions [we]re: Will Neymar retire from the NT? Will Flick be so
stupid to call up Mueller again? If these two keep scoring, will they be
able to catch up MH's presumably stationary score?" The answers were
respectively no, yes, yes, so the big fact this season is that Daniele
and Jesus surpassed Michael H. (even not counting the points added to
Jesus' amount thanks to Daniele's fair play [even if he was trying to
deducting points from his adversary...]).
Cycle 2: Since 2015-16 to 2021-22, Binder outscored Andrea V. every
season. A single-point win by the latter in 2022-23 only served to
extend the agony. This season, Binder = Gundogan finally surpassed
Andrea V., who had Varane retiring from international football* and
Goetze's second life in the NT ending early. So Binder will finish 2nd,
and Andrea V. is (at least for the time being) 3rd.
Gündoğan just retired from the NT, too.

Ciao,
Werner
Post by milivella
* I know, I know, "are you sure that he only retired from
_international_ football?"
To be continued...
--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
2024-08-19 21:15:47 UTC
Permalink
Post by Werner Pichler
Post by milivella
The 2023-24 season
The data I used: http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/rankingsarchive.htm
Previous season: https://www.novabbs.com/sport/article-flat.php?
id=15286&group=rec.sport.soccer#15286
Cycle 1: Sid Debgupta scoring more points with 7 players than anyone
else (including people who picked 29 players) for the 6th year in a
row should not go ignored, but we knew since last year that "[t]he big
questions [we]re: Will Neymar retire from the NT? Will Flick be so
stupid to call up Mueller again? If these two keep scoring, will they
be able to catch up MH's presumably stationary score?" The answers
were respectively no, yes, yes, so the big fact this season is that
Daniele and Jesus surpassed Michael H. (even not counting the points
added to Jesus' amount thanks to Daniele's fair play [even if he was
trying to deducting points from his adversary...]).
Cycle 2: Since 2015-16 to 2021-22, Binder outscored Andrea V. every
season. A single-point win by the latter in 2022-23 only served to
extend the agony. This season, Binder = Gundogan finally surpassed
Andrea V., who had Varane retiring from international football* and
Goetze's second life in the NT ending early. So Binder will finish
2nd, and Andrea V. is (at least for the time being) 3rd.
Gündoğan just retired from the NT, too.
COULDN'T HE DO IT BEFORE THE EURO?!?
Werner Pichler
2024-08-21 13:54:27 UTC
Permalink
Post by Werner Pichler
Post by milivella
The 2023-24 season
The data I used: http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/rankingsarchive.htm
https://www.novabbs.com/sport/article-flat.php?id=15286&group=rec.sport.soccer#15286
Cycle 1: Sid Debgupta scoring more points with 7 players than anyone
else (including people who picked 29 players) for the 6th year in a
row should not go ignored, but we knew since last year that "[t]he big
questions [we]re: Will Neymar retire from the NT? Will Flick be so
stupid to call up Mueller again? If these two keep scoring, will they
be able to catch up MH's presumably stationary score?" The answers
were respectively no, yes, yes, so the big fact this season is that
Daniele and Jesus surpassed Michael H. (even not counting the points
added to Jesus' amount thanks to Daniele's fair play [even if he was
trying to deducting points from his adversary...]).
Cycle 2: Since 2015-16 to 2021-22, Binder outscored Andrea V. every
season. A single-point win by the latter in 2022-23 only served to
extend the agony. This season, Binder = Gundogan finally surpassed
Andrea V., who had Varane retiring from international football* and
Goetze's second life in the NT ending early. So Binder will finish
2nd, and Andrea V. is (at least for the time being) 3rd.
Gündoğan just retired from the NT, too.
Neuer following suit.


Ciao,
Werner
milivella
2024-08-21 19:10:47 UTC
Permalink
[snip]
Post by Werner Pichler
Post by Werner Pichler
Gündoğan just retired from the NT, too.
Neuer following suit.
Now that ter Stegen is 32!!! Luckily not all my 3rd cycle players were
so unjustly mistreated by their NT...

--
Futbolmetrix
2024-08-21 21:14:13 UTC
Permalink
Post by milivella
Now that ter Stegen is 32!!! Luckily not all my 3rd cycle players were
so unjustly mistreated by their NT...
Translation: "some of the donkeys I picked were inexplicably given a lot
more space in their NTs than they deserved, but I won't complain."
milivella
2024-08-22 03:18:28 UTC
Permalink
Post by Futbolmetrix
Post by milivella
Now that ter Stegen is 32!!! Luckily not all my 3rd cycle players were
so unjustly mistreated by their NT...
Translation: "some of the donkeys I picked were inexplicably given a lot
more space in their NTs than they deserved, but I won't complain."
At least they didn't need doping...

--
Cheers
milivella
Werner Pichler
2024-09-23 14:56:40 UTC
Permalink
Post by milivella
[snip]
Post by Werner Pichler
Post by Werner Pichler
Gündoğan just retired from the NT, too.
Neuer following suit.
Now that ter Stegen is 32!!! Luckily not all my 3rd cycle players were
so unjustly mistreated by their NT...
Ter Stegen might be out for the season.


Ciao,
Werner
milivella
2024-09-24 01:30:24 UTC
Permalink
Post by Werner Pichler
Post by milivella
[snip]
Post by Werner Pichler
Post by Werner Pichler
Gündoğan just retired from the NT, too.
Neuer following suit.
Now that ter Stegen is 32!!! Luckily not all my 3rd cycle players were
so unjustly mistreated by their NT...
Ter Stegen migh
Futbolmetrix
2024-09-24 14:46:18 UTC
Permalink
Post by Werner Pichler
Ter Stegen might be out for the season.
This. Is. Ridiculous!
Third cycle comeback is ON!
milivella
2024-09-25 02:04:43 UTC
Permalink
Post by Futbolmetrix
Post by Werner Pichler
Ter Stegen might be out for the season.
This. Is. Ridiculous!
Third cycle comeback is ON!
Well, that certainly would make things interesting.

(Even though _my_ comeback in the inter-cycle ranking would be more
interesting... I am currently 6 points ahead
http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/ranking3.htm
http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/ranking4.htm
but of course you have two more years to score points. If one compares
scores at the same point of the cycle, you were 66 points ahead on July 31:
http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/rankingsarchive.htm?2_=8
)

--
Cheers
milivella

milivella
2024-08-27 01:52:50 UTC
Permalink
I have updated the page with the graph of the evolution of the rankings:
http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/rankingsevolution.htm

--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
2024-08-27 21:14:01 UTC
Permalink
Here are some interesting stats from the archive:
https://fantasyscoutblog.wordpress.com/2024/08/27/more-interesting-stats-from-the-archive/

Among them, why, when you think Futbolmetrix's picks are great, you
should remember that not all that glitters is gold...

--
Cheers
milivella
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