Discussion:
Fantasy Scout - Chat thread, September 2024
(too old to reply)
milivella
2024-09-15 17:25:05 UTC
Permalink
[The rules of this thread are simple: write what you want, reply if you
want, ignore if you have to.]

---

I've updated the clubs the players play for.

Quick stats (append prefix "According to Wikipedia..." to each of them):

323 of 1,609 players do not play for a club (= are retired?)

Top 10 clubs with most FS players:
21 Chelsea
20 Barcelona
18 Manchester United
17 Atletico Madrid
17 Bayern Munich
16 AC Milan
16 Arsenal
16 Juventus
16 Paris Saint-Germain
16 Roma

Top 10 leagues with most FS players:
214 Premier League
162 Serie A
142 La Liga
100 Bundesliga
81 Ligue 1
59 Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A
43 Eredivisie
42 Primera Division
35 Primeira Liga
32 EFL Championship

Top scout-club pairs:
8 Ville Barcelona
7 Saintjust River Plate
6 Ville Chelsea
5 Andrea V. Bayern Munich
5 Daniele Juventus
4 Alberto Napoli
4 Andrea V. Flamengo
4 Andrea V. Newcastle United
4 Daniele AC Milan
4 Daniele Fiorentina
4 Daniele Valencia
4 Jackson Real Madrid
4 Sam Manchester United

Tag: fs-clubs

--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
2024-09-22 02:21:33 UTC
Permalink
Quick comments on the September round.

=3rd cycle=

4 Andrea V., Nigel

3 Binder, Michael H.

The Binder vs. Nigel vs. Michael H. race for the 3rd place is still
underway.

=4th cycle=

8 Daniele

6 Alberto, Andrea V.

4 Abubakr

Alberto keeps gaining ground on Abubakr.

=5th cycle=

10 Jackson

7 Michael H.

6 Binder

5 Andrea V.

2 Alberto, Daniele, Nigel

Davinson Sanchez, Bergwijn, Joe Gomez, Ederson, Borja and Barrios
combined would have scored 3 points in a 2-match round last season. They
scored 0 this time, so Alberto had a very bad round. Havertz and Foden
both scored, so Binder had a good round. Binder's chase vs. Alberto is a
long run, but the distance is shorter and shorter.

=6th cycle=

18 Jackson

9 Leon, Ville

8 Andrea V.

7 Sam

5 Alberto

Ville is apparently back on form!

=7th cycle=

13 Ville

11 Alberto

9 Jackson

8 Leon

I thought the race for the title was among Alberto, Leon and Jackson!
But Frattesi scoring in both matches, Estevao debuting, Colwill playing
both matches, etc. meant Ville had a *great* round. Should he be
considered a contender for the title?

=8th cycle=

12 Leon, Rico

11 Sam

8 Ville

The Four Knights of Reddit are confirmed as the main characters of the
cycle. :) When compared to last season, Rico improved (no new faces, but
Reijnders scored twice and Barcola once), and Ville worsened. But Palmer
and Conceicao were both injured, so Ville's slowdown should be temporary.

=9th cycle=

2 Alberto

1 Daniele, Leon

The scoring has started!

--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
2024-09-25 11:47:41 UTC
Permalink
Raphael Varane announced his retirement from professional football.

Seven 2nd cycle players have a higher Fantasy Scout score than him.

Fantasy Scout score is a good assessment of skills, but it is not perfect.

--
Cheers
milivella
MH
2024-09-25 17:42:14 UTC
Permalink
Post by milivella
Raphael Varane announced his retirement from professional football.
Seven 2nd cycle players have a higher Fantasy Scout score than him.
Fantasy Scout score is a good assessment of skills, but it is not perfect.
One could argue that is is a much better assessment of longevity and the
ability to avoid injury than of skill. Viz. Olivier Giroud, top player
in 2nd cycle, though Griezmann could pass him.
Post by milivella
--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
2024-09-26 01:57:54 UTC
Permalink
Post by MH
Post by milivella
Raphael Varane announced his retirement from professional football.
Seven 2nd cycle players have a higher Fantasy Scout score than him.
Fantasy Scout score is a good assessment of skills, but it is not perfect.
One could argue that is is a much better assessment of longevity and the
ability to avoid injury than of skill.  Viz. Olivier Giroud, top player
in 2nd cycle, though Griezmann could pass him.
(I may have a chance to confute MH! :) Even though I have to take his
words literally, which is probably cheating...)

Counter-examples, even limiting myself to players picked in FS.

Players with low LAATAI (=longevity and ability to avoid injury) but
high FS score (and skill, arguably):
- Neymar
- Varane
- Khedira
- Kroos

Players with high LAATAI but a FS score of 0 (and lower skill compared
to a lot of other players, arguably):
- Fernando
- Scott Sinclair
- Zapater
- Noble

Of course, it would be more elegant of me not to mention players of mine
in the former list and to mention them in the latter, but what it's not
my fault if I have great-but-frail players and no bad footballer...

(Anyway, I guess we all agree about FS score being a very nosiy proxy
for s
MH
2024-09-27 17:41:13 UTC
Permalink
Post by milivella
Post by MH
Post by milivella
Raphael Varane announced his retirement from professional football.
Seven 2nd cycle players have a higher Fantasy Scout score than him.
Fantasy Scout score is a good assessment of skills, but it is not perfect.
One could argue that is is a much better assessment of longevity and
the ability to avoid injury than of skill.  Viz. Olivier Giroud, top
player in 2nd cycle, though Griezmann could pass him.
(I may have a chance to confute MH! :) Even though I have to take his
words literally, which is probably cheating...)
Well like "Blessed are the cheesemakers" statement, it was not meant to
be taken literally.

Clearly some level of skill (whether amazing technique or just doing
one's job really well) is required to get picked for a FS nation's
national team at all. To stay in there long enough to accumulate more
than 50 points does depend on:

1) Who else is competing for the same job(s) ?
2) Staying injury free at key times (especially during the big
tournaments, where, including warm-ups, players can get 10-15 points in
a month, perhaps more.
3) Luck in the sense that competitors can go down injured at key times
(eg. watch Martin Zubimendi finally get an extended run with Spain right
now)
Post by milivella
Counter-examples, even limiting myself to players picked in FS.
Players with low LAATAI (=longevity and ability to avoid injury) but
- Neymar
Bad example. First capped in 2010 as a teenager. Over 100 caps and
over 200 FS points. That points to a great deal of longevity and being
free from injury. During his prime at Barca he played 41-51 games a
season, so no extended injuries really.
By 2018 he already had 96 caps and 60 goals. So probably missed very
few games 2012-2018. I would call that longevity.
Post by milivella
- Varane
Did not miss all that many club games during 2014 to 2021, which is the
period where most of his numerous caps came from. Given the number of
strong central defenders France has had, his longevity and FS points
totals are pretty good
Post by milivella
- Khedira
2013-2014 with Real are bad, but was it injury or just not getting in
the team ? Next three years with Juve pretty good. Did manage to
participate in 3 WCs and 2 Euros, is that not longevity of a kind.
Post by milivella
- Kroos
492 league games for top clubs, 114 caps - pull the other one !


Better examples might be Ross Barkley, career blighted by injuries among
other things. or maybe Jack Wilshere (never liked him much but he was
highly hyped), or the allegedly phenomenally talented Wolfram Wuttke.
Cassano, perhaps ? (not all about injuries in his case, perhaps).
Post by milivella
Players with high LAATAI but a FS score of 0 (and lower skill compared
- Fernando
- Scott Sinclair
- Zapater
- Noble
Of course, it would be more elegant of me not to mention players of mine
in the former list and to mention them in the latter, but what it's not
my fault if I have great-but-frail players and no bad footballer...
(Anyway, I guess we all agree about FS score being a very nosiy proxy
for skill.)
--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
2024-09-28 02:18:17 UTC
Permalink
Post by MH
Post by milivella
Post by MH
Post by milivella
Raphael Varane announced his retirement from professional football.
Seven 2nd cycle players have a higher Fantasy Scout score than him.
Fantasy Scout score is a good assessment of skills, but it is not perfect.
One could argue that is is a much better assessment of longevity and
the ability to avoid injury than of skill.  Viz. Olivier Giroud, top
player in 2nd cycle, though Griezmann could pass him.
(I may have a chance to confute MH! :) Even though I have to take his
words literally, which is probably cheating...)
Well like "Blessed are the cheesemakers" statement, it was not meant to
be taken literally.
The best cites the best. :)
Post by MH
Clearly some level of skill (whether amazing technique or just doing
one's job really well) is required to get picked for a FS nation's
national team at all.  To stay in there long enough to accumulate more
1) Who else is competing for the same job(s) ?
2) Staying injury free at key times (especially during the big
tournaments, where, including warm-ups, players can get 10-15 points in
a month, perhaps more.
3) Luck in the sense that competitors can go down injured at key times
(eg. watch Martin Zubimendi finally get an extended run with Spain right
now)
I totally agree (how could I not agree? Marcelo only got 61 points,
FFS!). [this is the important thing]

The hope is that, in the long run, if Scout A always picks players who
are more skilled than the players picked by Scout D, A will have more
success. Law of large numbers and all that.
Post by MH
Post by milivella
Counter-examples, even limiting myself to players picked in FS.
Players with low LAATAI (=longevity and ability to avoid injury) but
- Neymar
Bad example.  First capped in 2010 as a teenager.
Because he was very skilled...
Post by MH
 Over 100 caps and
over 200 FS points.  That points to a great deal of longevity and being
free from injury. During his prime at Barca he played 41-51 games a
season, so no extended injuries really.
By 2018 he already had 96 caps and 60 goals.  So probably missed very
few games 2012-2018.  I  would call that longevity.
When he got his metatarsal fracture (February 26, 2018), he had just
turned 26 (February 5). I would not call that longevity.

(But I understand what you are saying, and of course there have been
very promising players who got injured at 18 or 19 and got 0 points.)
Post by MH
Post by milivella
- Varane
Did not miss all that many club games during 2014 to 2021, which is the
period where most of his numerous caps came from.  Given the number of
strong central defenders France has had, his longevity and FS points
totals are pretty good
Again, being a starter at 21 at the World Cup as a central defender is a
sign of skill, not of longevity.
Post by MH
Post by milivella
- Khedira
2013-2014 with Real are bad, but was it injury or just not getting in
the team ?
Transfermarkt says injuries:
https://www.transfermarkt.com/sami-khedira/verletzungen/spieler/29401
Post by MH
Next three years with Juve pretty good. Did manage to
participate in 3 WCs and 2 Euros, is that not longevity of a kind.
Getting back to the NT after serious injuries is a sign of skill, not of
being able to avoid injuries. :)
Post by MH
Post by milivella
- Kroos
492 league games for top clubs, 114 caps - pull the other one !
I meant Reus, but he got only 63 points, so he would not be a good
example either way.
Post by MH
Better examples might be Ross Barkley, career blighted by injuries among
other things.  or maybe Jack Wilshere (never liked him much but he was
highly hyped), or the allegedly phenomenally talented Wolfram Wuttke.
Cassano, perhaps ?  (not all about injuries in his case, perhaps).
Barkley: 39 points
Wilshere: 36
Wuttke: 5
Cassano: 49

These are _not_ examples of player with high FS scores. :)

I guess we got in some kind of misunderstanding about my examples. We
could try to understand each other better, but we agree on the most
important thing (the one I tagged as such above!), so maybe that's all
that matters.
--
Cheers
milivel
milivella
2024-09-28 02:33:23 UTC
Permalink
Post by milivella
Post by MH
Post by milivella
Post by MH
Post by milivella
Fantasy Scout score is a good assessment of skills, but it is not perfect.
One could argue that is is a much better assessment of longevity and
the ability to avoid injury than of skill.
Counter-examples, even limiting myself to players picked in FS.
Bad example.
Better examples might be Ross Barkley, career blighted by injuries
among other things.  or maybe Jack Wilshere (never liked him much but
he was highly hyped), or the allegedly phenomenally talented Wolfram
Wuttke.
Cassano, perhaps ?  (not all about injuries in his case, perhaps).
Barkley: 39 points
Wilshere: 36
Wuttke: 5
Cassano: 49
These are _not_ examples of player with high FS scores. :)
In other words: these are good examples of *your* thesis. :)

(your thesis = given a high enough level of skill, the FS score is a
measure of abil
MH
2024-09-28 14:44:16 UTC
Permalink
Post by milivella
Post by milivella
Post by MH
Post by milivella
Post by MH
Post by milivella
Fantasy Scout score is a good assessment of skills, but it is not perfect.
One could argue that is is a much better assessment of longevity
and the ability to avoid injury than of skill.
Counter-examples, even limiting myself to players picked in FS.
Bad example.
Better examples might be Ross Barkley, career blighted by injuries
among other things.  or maybe Jack Wilshere (never liked him much but
he was highly hyped), or the allegedly phenomenally talented Wolfram
Wuttke.
Cassano, perhaps ?  (not all about injuries in his case, perhaps).
Barkley: 39 points
Wilshere: 36
Wuttke: 5
Cassano: 49
These are _not_ examples of player with high FS scores. :)
In other words: these are good examples of *your* thesis. :)
(your thesis = given a high enough level of skill, the FS score is a
measure of ability to avoid injury)
Yes that is what I meant. .
Post by milivella
--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
2024-09-28 17:26:19 UTC
Permalink
Post by MH
Post by milivella
Post by milivella
Post by MH
Post by milivella
Post by MH
Post by milivella
Fantasy Scout score is a good assessment of skills, but it is not perfect.
One could argue that is is a much better assessment of longevity
and the ability to avoid injury than of skill.
Counter-examples, even limiting myself to players picked in FS.
Bad example.
Better examples might be Ross Barkley, career blighted by injuries
among other things.  or maybe Jack Wilshere (never liked him much
but he was highly hyped), or the allegedly phenomenally talented
Wolfram Wuttke.
Cassano, perhaps ?  (not all about injuries in his case, perhaps).
Barkley: 39 points
Wilshere: 36
Wuttke: 5
Cassano: 49
These are _not_ examples of player with high FS scores. :)
In other words: these are good examples of *your* thesis. :)
(your thesis = given a high enough level of skill, the FS score is a
measure of ability to avoid injury)
Yes that is what I meant. .
I indipendently realized it a few minutes ago, so it wasn't you being
unclear, it was me being literally slow. :) But thanks for replying!

So basically I said (among other things): "There are players with high
skill and low health* who have a high FS score (so one cannot say that
the FS score is much more correlated to health than to skill)."

And you replied: "There are players with (comparably?) high skills and
*actually* low health who have a low FS score (so your argument is not
valid?)."

Anyway, this debate made me realize (after just eighteen years...**)
that, _assuming_ the FS score is a good proxy for what a player
*actually* realized in his career, in FS what we can do is to assess the
*potential* of a player, so the FS score of a player you picked is not a
good measure of your scouting skill. Again, the hope is that the FS
score of _all_ the players you picked (over a couple of years) is
correlated to your scouting skills (i.e., that eternal personal bad luck
does not exist...).

* "health": a twisted way to say the opposite of "number of injuries" or
"injury-proneness".

** I told you I'm slow!

--
MH
2024-09-29 03:39:26 UTC
Permalink
Post by milivella
Post by MH
Post by milivella
Post by milivella
Post by MH
Post by milivella
Post by MH
Post by milivella
Fantasy Scout score is a good assessment of skills, but it is not perfect.
One could argue that is is a much better assessment of longevity
and the ability to avoid injury than of skill.
Counter-examples, even limiting myself to players picked in FS.
Bad example.
Better examples might be Ross Barkley, career blighted by injuries
among other things.  or maybe Jack Wilshere (never liked him much
but he was highly hyped), or the allegedly phenomenally talented
Wolfram Wuttke.
Cassano, perhaps ?  (not all about injuries in his case, perhaps).
Barkley: 39 points
Wilshere: 36
Wuttke: 5
Cassano: 49
These are _not_ examples of player with high FS scores. :)
In other words: these are good examples of *your* thesis. :)
(your thesis = given a high enough level of skill, the FS score is a
measure of ability to avoid injury)
Yes that is what I meant. .
I indipendently realized it a few minutes ago, so it wasn't you being
unclear, it was me being literally slow. :) But thanks for replying!
So basically I said (among other things): "There are players with high
skill and low health* who have a high FS score (so one cannot say that
the FS score is much more correlated to health than to skill)."
And you replied: "There are players with (comparably?) high skills and
*actually* low health who have a low FS score (so your argument is not
valid?)."
Anyway, this debate made me realize (after just eighteen years...**)
that, _assuming_ the FS score is a good proxy for what a player
*actually* realized in his career, in FS what we can do is to assess the
*potential* of a player, so the FS score of a player you picked is not a
good measure of your scouting skill. Again, the hope is that the FS
score of _all_ the players you picked (over a couple of years) is
correlated to your scouting skills (i.e., that eternal personal bad luck
does not exist...).
Good point. Which is why I never thought average score was a
particularly good metric, and was reasonably happy we disgarded it after
one cycle.

Curious, though, what would be the standings of cycle one with the rules
of cycle 2 (8 point penalty) or the later 10 point penalty. I guess I
could figure that out easily enough if I weren't lazy, and so far behind
on work (happens fast once you are actually retired and just doing
things out of a sense of obligation).

Conversely, if we have kept the cycle 1 rules what would the standings
be for each cycle. I know that most of us might not have picked the
same way, as we knew the rules had changed and I think a lot of us were
nervous about the cost of players.
Post by milivella
* "health": a twisted way to say the opposite of "number of injuries" or
"injury-proneness".
** I told you I'm slow!
--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
2024-09-30 01:52:29 UTC
Permalink
Post by milivella
Anyway, this debate made me realize (after just eighteen years...**)
that, _assuming_ the FS score is a good proxy for what a player
*actually* realized in his career, in FS what we can do is to assess
the *potential* of a player, so the FS score of a player you picked is
not a good measure of your scouting skill. Again, the hope is that the
FS score of _all_ the players you picked (over a couple of years) is
correlated to your scouting skills (i.e., that eternal personal bad
luck does not exist...).
Good point.  Which is why I never thought average score was a
particularly good metric, and was reasonably happy we disgarded it after
one cycle.
Great point!
Curious, though, what would be the standings of cycle one with the rules
of cycle 2 (8 point penalty)
Rank Scout Scout points
1 Michael H. 504
2 Andrea V. 375
3 Daniele 371
4 Sid Debgupta 271
5 Jesus 246
6 Mark 168
7 Pietro 141
8 Sid At N. 120
9 Alberto 107
10 Cristian 90
11 Mattia 88
12 William 71
13 Alessandro 54
14 Riccardo 48
15 Saintjust 46
16 Tom Two 45
17 Mpfat 38
18 Abubakr 31
19 Vasilij 23
20 Jacopo 21
21 Gianmarco 5
22 Desiree 0
23 Simone R. -42
24 Giulio -67
or the later 10 point penalty.
Rank Scout Scout points
1 Michael H. 464
2 Daniele 343
3 Andrea V. 329
4 Sid Debgupta 261
5 Jesus 230
6 Mark 152
7 Sid At N. 114
8 Alberto 99
9 Pietro 87
10 Cristian 74
11 Mattia 58
12 William 53
13 Tom Two 45
14 Alessandro 44
15 Saintjust 40
16 Riccardo 30
17 Mpfat 28
18 Abubakr 25
18 Vasilij 25
20 Jacopo 5
21 Desiree 0
22 Gianmarco -13
23 Simone R. -60
24 Giulio -89

(in both cases, I didn't apply the penalty to the first 2 players
picked, as in the rules of all cycles with the sum score)
Conversely, if we have kept the cycle 1 rules what would the standings
be for each cycle.
Cycle 2:
Rank Scout Scout points
1 Pietro 54.00
2 Tom Two 52.00
3 Sid Debgupta 47.25
4 Michael H. 35.38
5 Abubakr 33.60
6 William 29.40
7 Andrea V. 28.60
8 Binder 27.82
9 Mark 26.80
10 Riccardo 26.60
11 Mpfat 24.50
12 Alberto 20.75
13 Daniele 19.43
14 Saintjust 14.40
15 Gianmarco 12.17
16 Jesus 10.00
17 Mattia 0.33

Cycle 3:
Rank Scout Scout points
1 Binder 33.75
2 Daniele 31.25
3 Michael H. 26.33
4 Sid Debgupta 26.00
5 Andrea V. 25.45
6 Nigel 21.33
7 Tom Two 21.25
8 Alberto 12.13
9 Saintjust 11.53
10 Gianmarco 11.27
11 Mark 9.63
12 Abubakr 6.52
13 Giovanni T. 5.54
14 Jackson 3.20
15 William 2.00
16 Mpfat 1.00
17 Jesus 0.00

Cycle 4:
Rank Scout Scout points
1 Elko 40.50
2 Abubakr 28.60
3 Daniele 24.43
4 Jesus 23.00
5 Andrea V. 14.10
6 Alberto 11.74
7 Giovanni T. 9.57
8 Binder 8.50
9 Michael H. 7.20
10 Saintjust 6.84
11 Jackson 1.33
12 Gianmarco 0.00

Cycle 5:
Rank Scout Scout points
1 Binder 44.75
2 Michael H. 25.33
3 Alberto 23.13
4 Jackson 21.17
5 Nigel 20.00
6 Daniele 16.47
7 Tom Two 15.75
8 Gianmarco 15.20
9 Saintjust 13.07
10 Andrea V. 10.70
11 Abubakr 1.25
12 Jesus 0.00

Cycle 6:
Rank Scout Scout points
1 Jackson 15.79
2 Alberto 14.58
3 Silva 14.50
4 Robert 12.00
5 Ville 11.94
6 Murat 11.20
7 Stijn 11.17
8 Rory 11.14
9 Leon 11.13
10 Andrea V. 10.94
11 Michael H. 10.50
12 Dan B. 10.00
13 Guillaume 9.05
14 Daniele 7.88
15 Saintjust 7.45
16 Rico 5.96
17 Sam 4.32
18 Elko 3.67
19 Real Mardin 0.71
20 Jesus 0.67
21 Amirulez 0.00
21 Kim 0.00
21 Rich 0.00

Cycle 7:
Rank Scout Scout points
1 Tom Two 13.00
2 Leon 10.33
2 Michael H. 10.33
4 Qais 10.00
5 Alberto 9.27
6 Jackson 9.08
7 Ville 7.50
8 Andrea V. 4.90
9 Abubakr 4.75
10 Sam 3.86
11 Rico 3.75
12 Daniele 2.61
13 Saintjust 2.47
14 Jesus 0.50

Cycle 8:
Rank Scout Scout points
1 Leon 5.63
2 Ville 3.92
3 Rico 3.29
4 Sam 3.00
5 Daniele 1.83
6 Tom Two 1.56
7 Michael H. 1.50
8 Jackson 1.04
9 Andrea V. 0.25
10 Alberto 0.18
11 Jesus 0.00
I know that most of us might not have picked the
same
Werner Pichler
2024-09-26 08:19:33 UTC
Permalink
Post by MH
Post by milivella
Raphael Varane announced his retirement from professional football.
Seven 2nd cycle players have a higher Fantasy Scout score than him.
Fantasy Scout score is a good assessment of skills, but it is not perfect.
One could argue that is is a much better assessment of longevity and the
ability to avoid injury than of skill. Viz. Olivier Giroud, top player
in 2nd cycle,
The thing with Olivier is that if you showed his
highlight reel to people who have no idea of
football you might just be able to convince them
that Giroud is the best striker ever.

Ciao,
Werner
Post by MH
though Griezmann could pass him.
Post by milivella
--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
2024-09-30 13:28:07 UTC
Permalink
Post by MH
Olivier Giroud, top player
in 2nd cycle, though Griezmann could pass him.
Apparently he won't:
"France's Griezmann retires from internationals"
https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/c4glj0595deo

milivella
2024-09-26 02:39:31 UTC
Permalink
I have temporarily updated the predictions:
http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/predictedrankings.htm

--
Cheers
milivella
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