EPL 21 Mid term Report R

[Binder Dundat]

Sure I will do a WWEpl thing as well. It is way too cold to go out, still suffering the jet lag and the effects of organic wine, yes you can still get hangovers from that stuff! Last time I believe an organic wine producer!

The big news from the EPL is the Jose Mourinho saga has ended. Seems like only yesterday that the press were in love with the greasy, fish stealing Porto. That of course changed this season, with the Press turning on him like a Mobster's wife in the Witness Protection Program

Cardiff - Tottenham (Di.) 0:3 (0:3)
I half watched all of the New Years day games. Spurs are going to win the EPL this season, it is Lily Whites decree.

Arsenal - Fulham 4:1 (1:0)
I think this score flatters Arsenal a bit, Fulham actually could have been leading this game in the 1st half. They did eventually collapse and deservedly lost. I have to admit, I am somewhat surprised at how well Aubemayang is doing. He was a very fast player, which creates a lot of chances, he just seems to miss so many of those chances. Good for him though.

Everton - Leicester 0:1 (0:0)

This really was a terrible game. I guess Leicester wins the Best of the Rest Cup

Wolves - Palace (
What is there in this game to draw me in?

Bournemouth - Watford

Nothing to see here

Chelsea - Southampton

Do I watch this game to see Eden Hazard play his last game for Chelsea? Actually rumour has it Cesc is going in the window.

West Ham - Brighton
Do I watch this game to see the return of Sami Nasri, Marko Arnautovic and Andy Caroll?

Newcastle - ManUnited
Do I watch this game to see the new Man United?

Huddersfield - Burnley

Do I watch thi...no


ManCity - Liverpool

[Binder Dundat]

Based upon the league table, I opted for the West Ham v Brighton game, I have so far regretted that decision.

Newcastle - ManUnited (Mi.) -:- (0:0) Live

Bournemouth - Watford -:- (0:2) Live

Wolves - Palace -:- (0:0) Live

Huddersfield - Burnley -:- (1:1) Live

Chelsea - Southampton -:- (0:0) Live

West Ham - Brighton -:- (0:0)

Arnautovic denied a decent penalty call, otherwise nothing happening in this game. Except maybe Andy Caroll making his return, For a big wannabe tough guy, he seems very soft, he came away with a bleeding eye, from what looked like nothing. Nasri on the bench, but based upon how terrible this game is, he will come on in the second half

Post by Binder Dundat
Sure I will do a WWEpl thing as well. It is way too cold to go out, still suffering the jet lag and the effects of organic wine, yes you can still get hangovers from that stuff! Last time I believe an organic wine producer!
The big news from the EPL is the Jose Mourinho saga has ended. Seems like only yesterday that the press were in love with the greasy, fish stealing Porto. That of course changed this season, with the Press turning on him like a Mobster's wife in the Witness Protection Program
Cardiff - Tottenham (Di.) 0:3 (0:3)
I half watched all of the New Years day games. Spurs are going to win the EPL this season, it is Lily Whites decree.
Arsenal - Fulham 4:1 (1:0)
I think this score flatters Arsenal a bit, Fulham actually could have been leading this game in the 1st half. They did eventually collapse and deservedly lost. I have to admit, I am somewhat surprised at how well Aubemayang is doing. He was a very fast player, which creates a lot of chances, he just seems to miss so many of those chances. Good for him though.
Everton - Leicester 0:1 (0:0)
This really was a terrible game. I guess Leicester wins the Best of the Rest Cup
Wolves - Palace (
What is there in this game to draw me in?
Bournemouth - Watford
Nothing to see here
Chelsea - Southampton
Do I watch this game to see Eden Hazard play his last game for Chelsea? Actually rumour has it Cesc is going in the window.
West Ham - Brighton
Do I watch this game to see the return of Sami Nasri, Marko Arnautovic and Andy Caroll?
Newcastle - ManUnited
Do I watch this game to see the new Man United?
Huddersfield - Burnley
Do I watch thi...no
ManCity - Liverpool

[RED DEVIL]

On Wed, 2 Jan 2019 11:47:12 -0800 (PST), Binder Dundat

Post by Binder Dundat
Newcastle - ManUnited
Do I watch this game to see the new Man United?

Nothing new about this Man United. This is the way we're supposed to
play when our players arent kept in chains



The RED DEVIL

[Binder Dundat]

So we are down to the end of the match day that decides the title-or so I am told. Apparently the mother of all WWEpl matches, the match between Good and Ev...well Good and Good I guess, neither team is really evil, Man City have a hacker or two, but not really a negative or dirty team, nor are Liverpool. These games always sound interesting and then somehow disappoint.

I wont say yesterday's games were the most interesting matches, but some interesting results

Newcastle - ManUnited (Mi.) 0:2 (0:0)
The New or sorry, the unchained old school Man United seem to be winning games easily again, I Watched the last 20 minutes and it could have been 3-0 if Pogba had made the easy pass to Lukaku instead of trying to score, but it was late in the game and did not really change anything.

Bournemouth - Watford 3:3 (3:3)
Watford were ahead 2-0 in the first half

Wolves - Palace 0:2 (0:0)
If Wolves beat Spurs the other day, does that mean Crystal Palace is the best team in London?

Huddersfield - Burnley 1:2 (1:1)
If the Man City v Liverpool game decides the title for Liverpool, this game decided the relegation for Huddersfield.

Chelsea - Southampton 0:0 (0:0)
You cant put all the attacking/scoring responsibility on the shoulders of Hazard.

West Ham - Brighton 2:2 (0:0)

Aranutovic saved West Ham with 2 quick goals after going down 2-0, to two quick Brighton goals. West Ham is a team that I think should be up there with the likes of Everton and Leicester.

ManCity - Liverpool
So how did the schedule planner guy know this was the game to put all by its lonesome on a Thursday night to decide the title? (You do know Thursday night is the new Friday night now, you dont want to get drunk on a Friday night anymore, cus it ruins your Saturday) So yeah, how is this planned so perfectly is the WWEpl as phony as the WWE? Is it really just "sports entertainment". It is like the WWE with the whole manager interviews being bigger than the games themselves.

I do know it is all about stupid pundits talking all the time about tactics and managing and transfers and having no real idea about actual football itself. Football is all about the new style managers who advocate attacking and not the old defensive Mourinho style, wait for the other team to make mistakes type styles... well except if you want to win a world cup,...well except if you wanted to win a World Cup 4 years ago or 50 years ago, were those mangers ahead of their time? GENIUS!!!!

OK I get it, you need these guys to fill in the gaps. Today we have the internet and it needs stuff on it. You got 95% porn content, so the other 5% has to be filled with something. Something like idiots who have never played football, talking about football and telling us how to play football and how to manage football and how to win football with tactics and formations and managing and transfers.

Like aresholes, everyone has an opinion and here is mine, the mother of all WWEpl matches will end 0-0.

Post by RED DEVIL
On Wed, 2 Jan 2019 11:47:12 -0800 (PST), Binder Dundat

Post by Binder Dundat
Newcastle - ManUnited
Do I watch this game to see the new Man United?

Nothing new about this Man United. This is the way we're supposed to
play when our players arent kept in chains
The RED DEVIL

[Binder Dundat]

Looking at the starting lineups, I guess they are sort of going with experience (Kompany, Lovren, Milner, Henderson, Silva) but more or less expected picks.

Manchester City

Ederson -
Danilo ,
Stones ,
Kompany ,
Laporte -
Fernandinho -
Bernardo Silva ,
Silva -
Sterling ,
Aguero ,
L. Sané

FC Liverpool

Alisson -
Alexander-Arnold ,
Lovren ,
van Dijk ,
Robertson -
J. Henderson -
Wijnaldum ,
Milner -
M. Salah ,
Roberto Firmino ,
S. Mané

Post by Binder Dundat
So we are down to the end of the match day that decides the title-or so I am told. Apparently the mother of all WWEpl matches, the match between Good and Ev...well Good and Good I guess, neither team is really evil, Man City have a hacker or two, but not really a negative or dirty team, nor are Liverpool. These games always sound interesting and then somehow disappoint.
I wont say yesterday's games were the most interesting matches, but some interesting results
Newcastle - ManUnited (Mi.) 0:2 (0:0)
The New or sorry, the unchained old school Man United seem to be winning games easily again, I Watched the last 20 minutes and it could have been 3-0 if Pogba had made the easy pass to Lukaku instead of trying to score, but it was late in the game and did not really change anything.
Bournemouth - Watford 3:3 (3:3)
Watford were ahead 2-0 in the first half
Wolves - Palace 0:2 (0:0)
If Wolves beat Spurs the other day, does that mean Crystal Palace is the best team in London?
Huddersfield - Burnley 1:2 (1:1)
If the Man City v Liverpool game decides the title for Liverpool, this game decided the relegation for Huddersfield.
Chelsea - Southampton 0:0 (0:0)
You cant put all the attacking/scoring responsibility on the shoulders of Hazard.
West Ham - Brighton 2:2 (0:0)
Aranutovic saved West Ham with 2 quick goals after going down 2-0, to two quick Brighton goals. West Ham is a team that I think should be up there with the likes of Everton and Leicester.
ManCity - Liverpool
So how did the schedule planner guy know this was the game to put all by its lonesome on a Thursday night to decide the title? (You do know Thursday night is the new Friday night now, you dont want to get drunk on a Friday night anymore, cus it ruins your Saturday) So yeah, how is this planned so perfectly is the WWEpl as phony as the WWE? Is it really just "sports entertainment". It is like the WWE with the whole manager interviews being bigger than the games themselves.
I do know it is all about stupid pundits talking all the time about tactics and managing and transfers and having no real idea about actual football itself. Football is all about the new style managers who advocate attacking and not the old defensive Mourinho style, wait for the other team to make mistakes type styles... well except if you want to win a world cup,...well except if you wanted to win a World Cup 4 years ago or 50 years ago, were those mangers ahead of their time? GENIUS!!!!
OK I get it, you need these guys to fill in the gaps. Today we have the internet and it needs stuff on it. You got 95% porn content, so the other 5% has to be filled with something. Something like idiots who have never played football, talking about football and telling us how to play football and how to manage football and how to win football with tactics and formations and managing and transfers.
Like aresholes, everyone has an opinion and here is mine, the mother of all WWEpl matches will end 0-0.

Post by RED DEVIL
On Wed, 2 Jan 2019 11:47:12 -0800 (PST), Binder Dundat

Post by Binder Dundat
Newcastle - ManUnited
Do I watch this game to see the new Man United?

Nothing new about this Man United. This is the way we're supposed to
play when our players arent kept in chains
The RED DEVIL

[Binder Dundat]

1-0 ht and 50 cards flying, OK, not so many cards.

Man City with more possession and the lead, but Liverpool look better with their possession and more likely to score when they get the ball (came within millimetres of scoring). They actually look better on the ball, better passing and ball control, better off the ball movement, which is not expected, as I excpect a Pep team to spend more time on ball control and passing drills.

I can see Liverpool scoring in the second half, even with Man City getting some mojo after the late goal.

If I was harsh, I would blame the keeper for the goal, very tight angle, but very hard shot at close range.

Post by Binder Dundat
Looking at the starting lineups, I guess they are sort of going with experience (Kompany, Lovren, Milner, Henderson, Silva) but more or less expected picks.
Manchester City
Ederson -
Danilo ,
Stones ,
Kompany ,
Laporte -
Fernandinho -
Bernardo Silva ,
Silva -
Sterling ,
Aguero ,
L. Sané
FC Liverpool
Alisson -
Alexander-Arnold ,
Lovren ,
van Dijk ,
Robertson -
J. Henderson -
Wijnaldum ,
Milner -
M. Salah ,
Roberto Firmino ,
S. Mané

Post by Binder Dundat
So we are down to the end of the match day that decides the title-or so I am told. Apparently the mother of all WWEpl matches, the match between Good and Ev...well Good and Good I guess, neither team is really evil, Man City have a hacker or two, but not really a negative or dirty team, nor are Liverpool. These games always sound interesting and then somehow disappoint.
I wont say yesterday's games were the most interesting matches, but some interesting results
Newcastle - ManUnited (Mi.) 0:2 (0:0)
The New or sorry, the unchained old school Man United seem to be winning games easily again, I Watched the last 20 minutes and it could have been 3-0 if Pogba had made the easy pass to Lukaku instead of trying to score, but it was late in the game and did not really change anything.
Bournemouth - Watford 3:3 (3:3)
Watford were ahead 2-0 in the first half
Wolves - Palace 0:2 (0:0)
If Wolves beat Spurs the other day, does that mean Crystal Palace is the best team in London?
Huddersfield - Burnley 1:2 (1:1)
If the Man City v Liverpool game decides the title for Liverpool, this game decided the relegation for Huddersfield.
Chelsea - Southampton 0:0 (0:0)
You cant put all the attacking/scoring responsibility on the shoulders of Hazard.
West Ham - Brighton 2:2 (0:0)
Aranutovic saved West Ham with 2 quick goals after going down 2-0, to two quick Brighton goals. West Ham is a team that I think should be up there with the likes of Everton and Leicester.
ManCity - Liverpool
So how did the schedule planner guy know this was the game to put all by its lonesome on a Thursday night to decide the title? (You do know Thursday night is the new Friday night now, you dont want to get drunk on a Friday night anymore, cus it ruins your Saturday) So yeah, how is this planned so perfectly is the WWEpl as phony as the WWE? Is it really just "sports entertainment". It is like the WWE with the whole manager interviews being bigger than the games themselves.
I do know it is all about stupid pundits talking all the time about tactics and managing and transfers and having no real idea about actual football itself. Football is all about the new style managers who advocate attacking and not the old defensive Mourinho style, wait for the other team to make mistakes type styles... well except if you want to win a world cup,...well except if you wanted to win a World Cup 4 years ago or 50 years ago, were those mangers ahead of their time? GENIUS!!!!
OK I get it, you need these guys to fill in the gaps. Today we have the internet and it needs stuff on it. You got 95% porn content, so the other 5% has to be filled with something. Something like idiots who have never played football, talking about football and telling us how to play football and how to manage football and how to win football with tactics and formations and managing and transfers.
Like aresholes, everyone has an opinion and here is mine, the mother of all WWEpl matches will end 0-0.

Post by RED DEVIL
On Wed, 2 Jan 2019 11:47:12 -0800 (PST), Binder Dundat

Post by Binder Dundat
Newcastle - ManUnited
Do I watch this game to see the new Man United?

Nothing new about this Man United. This is the way we're supposed to
play when our players arent kept in chains
The RED DEVIL

[Futbolmetrix]

On Thursday, January 3, 2019 at 2:56:17 PM UTC-5, Binder Dundat wrote:

Not too much goal chances, but high quality late 2010's football on both sides.
The BOTs took away a goal from Liverpool that probably would have been given without GLT. It would have been a mix of sublime and comical.

Then Aguero puts City in front with 5 minutes to go. Nice ruse to dive, have his penalty appeal denied, get the defenders to switch off, and take advantage on the ensuing move.

HT: 1-0

[MH]

Post by Futbolmetrix
Not too much goal chances, but high quality late 2010's football on both sides.
The BOTs took away a goal from Liverpool that probably would have been given without GLT. It would have been a mix of sublime and comical.
Then Aguero puts City in front with 5 minutes to go. Nice ruse to dive,

Should have stopped play and given the little creep the yellow card he
deserved.

have his penalty appeal denied, get the defenders to switch off, and
take advantage on the ensuing move.

Post by Futbolmetrix
HT: 1-0

[Binder Dundat]

Brexit sub
Milner off - Fabinho in.

After saying Liverpool looked so good on the ball earlier, they now cant put two passes togethor

Post by MH

Post by Futbolmetrix
Not too much goal chances, but high quality late 2010's football on both sides.
The BOTs took away a goal from Liverpool that probably would have been given without GLT. It would have been a mix of sublime and comical.
Then Aguero puts City in front with 5 minutes to go. Nice ruse to dive,

Should have stopped play and given the little creep the yellow card he
deserved.
have his penalty appeal denied, get the defenders to switch off, and
take advantage on the ensuing move.

Post by Futbolmetrix
HT: 1-0

[Jesper Lauridsen]

Post by Futbolmetrix
Then Aguero puts City in front with 5 minutes to go.

My view on Aguero is quite different without UtNT points on the line.

[Jesper Lauridsen]

Post by Binder Dundat
ManCity - Liverpool
So how did the schedule planner guy know this was the game to put
all by its lonesome on a Thursday night to decide the title? (You
do know Thursday night is the new Friday night now, you dont want to
get drunk on a Friday night anymore, cus it ruins your Saturday) So
yeah, how is this planned so perfectly is the WWEpl as phony as the
WWE?

I think it would have been better as an early April game. Odd that it
isn't, given that these two teams were the clear title favourittes
before the season. But maybe they were afraid that City would be too
far ahead then?

[Binder Dundat]

Brexit vote works
1-1

Now who has the mojo?

Post by Jesper Lauridsen

Post by Binder Dundat
ManCity - Liverpool
So how did the schedule planner guy know this was the game to put
all by its lonesome on a Thursday night to decide the title? (You
do know Thursday night is the new Friday night now, you dont want to
get drunk on a Friday night anymore, cus it ruins your Saturday) So
yeah, how is this planned so perfectly is the WWEpl as phony as the
WWE?

I think it would have been better as an early April game. Odd that it
isn't, given that these two teams were the clear title favourittes
before the season. But maybe they were afraid that City would be too
far ahead then?

[Binder Dundat]

Post by Binder Dundat
Brexit vote works
1-1
Now who has the mojo?

Man City

Post by Binder Dundat

Post by Jesper Lauridsen

Post by Binder Dundat
ManCity - Liverpool
So how did the schedule planner guy know this was the game to put
all by its lonesome on a Thursday night to decide the title? (You
do know Thursday night is the new Friday night now, you dont want to
get drunk on a Friday night anymore, cus it ruins your Saturday) So
yeah, how is this planned so perfectly is the WWEpl as phony as the
WWE?

I think it would have been better as an early April game. Odd that it
isn't, given that these two teams were the clear title favourittes
before the season. But maybe they were afraid that City would be too
far ahead then?

[Binder Dundat]

Though I understand Liverpool's tactic of constantly giving the ball to Sterling, it is a very safe move. The drawback is your chance of scoring are only maybe 25% when he has the ball.

Post by Binder Dundat

Post by Binder Dundat
Brexit vote works
1-1
Now who has the mojo?

Man City

Post by Binder Dundat

Post by Jesper Lauridsen

Post by Binder Dundat
ManCity - Liverpool
So how did the schedule planner guy know this was the game to put
all by its lonesome on a Thursday night to decide the title? (You
do know Thursday night is the new Friday night now, you dont want to
get drunk on a Friday night anymore, cus it ruins your Saturday) So
yeah, how is this planned so perfectly is the WWEpl as phony as the
WWE?

I think it would have been better as an early April game. Odd that it
isn't, given that these two teams were the clear title favourittes
before the season. But maybe they were afraid that City would be too
far ahead then?

[a***@hotmail.com]

Post by Jesper Lauridsen

Post by Binder Dundat
ManCity - Liverpool
So how did the schedule planner guy know this was the game to put
all by its lonesome on a Thursday night to decide the title? (You
do know Thursday night is the new Friday night now, you dont want to
get drunk on a Friday night anymore, cus it ruins your Saturday) So
yeah, how is this planned so perfectly is the WWEpl as phony as the
WWE?

I think it would have been better as an early April game. Odd that it
isn't, given that these two teams were the clear title favourittes
before the season. But maybe they were afraid that City would be too
far ahead then?

Interestingly, Liverpool's 538 SPI went up after the City defeat, from 92.9 to 93.

[Jesper Lauridsen]

Post by Binder Dundat
ManCity - Liverpool

How does the math work for this? Pre match 538 had
LFC: 78% for title, average season 96 points
City: 19% and 88 points

For the match they predicted 44%-24%-32%.

After the match:
LFC: 73% and 95 points
City: 25% and 89 points

The change in points makes sense, but only a 5-6% change in titles
chances?

[Futbolmetrix]

Post by Jesper Lauridsen

Post by Binder Dundat
ManCity - Liverpool

How does the math work for this? Pre match 538 had
LFC: 78% for title, average season 96 points
City: 19% and 88 points
For the match they predicted 44%-24%-32%.
LFC: 73% and 95 points
City: 25% and 89 points
The change in points makes sense, but only a 5-6% change in titles
chances?

It does seem too small of a movement. However, if I understand their algorithm correctly, it takes into account not just results, but also expected goals. In ManC-Liverpool, the final score was 2-1, the "adjusted goal" score (don't ask) was 2.1-1.1, but the shot-based expected goal (xG) score was 1.0-1.5, and the non-shot based xG score was 1.1-1.6.

As a consequence, Liverpool's SPI rating actually went slightly *up* after the match, from 92.9 to 93.0, while City's went down, from 92.3 to 92.2.

Similarly' Spurs' SPI rating went up after last week's defeat to ManU, thanks to DDG's crazy preformance.

If you ask me, that's pretty silly: my hunch is that non-shot based xG strongly overrates teams that are down a goal and forced to attack (also shot-based xG, but to a lesser extent).

[a***@hotmail.com]

Post by Futbolmetrix

Post by Jesper Lauridsen

Post by Binder Dundat
ManCity - Liverpool

How does the math work for this? Pre match 538 had
LFC: 78% for title, average season 96 points
City: 19% and 88 points
For the match they predicted 44%-24%-32%.
LFC: 73% and 95 points
City: 25% and 89 points
The change in points makes sense, but only a 5-6% change in titles
chances?

It does seem too small of a movement. However, if I understand their algorithm correctly, it takes into account not just results, but also expected goals. In ManC-Liverpool, the final score was 2-1, the "adjusted goal" score (don't ask) was 2.1-1.1, but the shot-based expected goal (xG) score was 1.0-1.5, and the non-shot based xG score was 1.1-1.6.

Where are you getting your numbers? This site (https://understat.com/match/9400) has the xG at 1.18:1.38. Is that a composite of the two xGs you mention above?

[Futbolmetrix]

Post by a***@hotmail.com
Where are you getting your numbers? This site (https://understat.com/match/9400) has the xG at 1.18:1.38. Is that a composite of the two xGs you mention above?

From 538's own website:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/

Then click on the "Matches" tab, and scroll down to Completed Matches. xG is still very much in flux, so it's not surprising that different models will yield different xG scores.

[a***@hotmail.com]

Post by Futbolmetrix

Post by a***@hotmail.com
Where are you getting your numbers? This site (https://understat.com/match/9400) has the xG at 1.18:1.38. Is that a composite of the two xGs you mention above?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/
Then click on the "Matches" tab, and scroll down to Completed Matches. xG is still very much in flux, so it's not surprising that different models will yield different xG scores.

Got it, thanks.