THE EPL 2024/2025 SOPHCON [R implied or direct]

[anders t]

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HEADS UP - ANNOUNCING - THE EPL 24/25 SOPHCON
DEADLINE WILL BE AT KICK-OFF OF THE ABSOLUTELY FIRST GAME
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPREADSHEET AVAILABLE: latest during next week as a reply to this post

Btw: There will be a few changes of the division of the positions...

[anders t]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNOUNCING - THE EPL 2024/2025 SOPHCON
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DEADLINE AT KICK-OFF OF THE ABSOLUTELY FIRST FIXTURE

SPREADSHEET AVAILABLE HERE: http://spc.elgunet.se/spc.html
You might get a warning by your virus software, but there is
nothing fishy about the page/file. As always you should of
course check the file with your own software to be certain.

The drill is well-known by now. (If not ask in the thread!)
Welcome, Bots and Humans alike are!

Send the entry (the filled-in spreadsheet with your moniker) here:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
anthu_001[ *-*-*-*- ]hotmail.com
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Replace [ *-*-*-*- ] with the at-symbol first.

Before you submit, check that all the OKs are there.

And as always: Luck has nothing to do with it.

[anders t]

Post by anders t
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNOUNCING - THE EPL 2024/2025 SOPHCON
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DEADLINE AT KICK-OFF OF THE ABSOLUTELY FIRST FIXTURE
SPREADSHEET AVAILABLE HERE: http://spc.elgunet.se/spc.html
You might get a warning by your virus software, but there is
nothing fishy about the page/file. As always you should of
course check the file with your own software to be certain.
The drill is well-known by now. (If not ask in the thread!)
Welcome, Bots and Humans alike are!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
anthu_001[ *-*-*-*- ]hotmail.com
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Replace [ *-*-*-*- ] with the at-symbol first.
Before you submit, check that all the OKs are there.
And as always: Luck has nothing to do with it.

Don't forget!

[Werner Pichler]

Post by anders t

Post by anders t
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNOUNCING - THE EPL 2024/2025 SOPHCON
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DEADLINE AT KICK-OFF OF THE ABSOLUTELY FIRST FIXTURE
SPREADSHEET AVAILABLE HERE: http://spc.elgunet.se/spc.html
You might get a warning by your virus software, but there is
nothing fishy about the page/file. As always you should of
course check the file with your own software to be certain.
The drill is well-known by now. (If not ask in the thread!)
Welcome, Bots and Humans alike are!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
anthu_001[ *-*-*-*- ]hotmail.com
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Replace [ *-*-*-*- ] with the at-symbol first.
Before you submit, check that all the OKs are there.
And as always: Luck has nothing to do with it.

Don't forget!

Only last-minute SophCon entries are winning SophCon entries!

(actually that’s a potential correlation that Daniele could perhaps check…)

Ciao,
Werner

[Silver Skull]

What is a "sophcon" ? ? ?

[anders t]

Post by Silver Skull
What is a "sophcon" ? ? ?

Sophcon is short for Sophisticated Contest.

I think Futbolmetrix has a mathematical description ready-written
somewhere?

But in general you need to assign a probability for each possible (defined)
outcome that can happen for a team (or player) in a certain competition.
The sum of the probabilities for each team (player) (the rows) must sum to
exactly 1.
The sum of the probabilities for a possible outcome must sum exactly to the
number of teams (players) (the columns) that can end up with that outcome.

Example

Team, Outcome 1 (2 teams), Outcome 2 (1 team), Outcome 3 (1 team)
========================================================
A 0.5000 0.2500 0.2500 || 1.0000
B 0.2495 0.2000 0.5505 || 1.0000
C 0.4000 0.4006 0.1994 || 1.0000
D 0.8505 0.1494 0.0001 || 1.0000
==============================
S 2.0000 1.0000 1.0000

Outcome 1 could here mean losing in a semifinal.
Outcome 2 could mean losing the final.
Outcome 3 could mean winning the final.

This example then means that the Predictor thinks that it is more probable
that teams A and D lose their semifinals and that team C then (probably)
loses the final.

You can also see that he Predictor basically thinks NO CHANCE team D wins
the final. (But in a real sports competition there is no NO chance, just
VERY VERY VERY SMALL chance)

I hope I got everything right there.

[anders t]

Post by anders t
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNOUNCING - THE EPL 2024/2025 SOPHCON
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DEADLINE AT KICK-OFF OF THE ABSOLUTELY FIRST FIXTURE
SPREADSHEET AVAILABLE HERE: http://spc.elgunet.se/spc.html
You might get a warning by your virus software, but there is
nothing fishy about the page/file. As always you should of
course check the file with your own software to be certain.
The drill is well-known by now. (If not ask in the thread!)
Welcome, Bots and Humans alike are!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
anthu_001[ *-*-*-*- ]hotmail.com
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Replace [ *-*-*-*- ] with the at-symbol first.
Before you submit, check that all the OKs are there.
And as always: Luck has nothing to do with it.

R E M I N D E R !!!

(Still no entries at all...)

[MH]

Post by anders t

Post by anders t
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNOUNCING - THE EPL 2024/2025 SOPHCON
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DEADLINE AT KICK-OFF OF THE ABSOLUTELY FIRST FIXTURE
SPREADSHEET AVAILABLE HERE: http://spc.elgunet.se/spc.html
You might get a warning by your virus software, but there is
nothing fishy about the page/file. As always you should of
course check the file with your own software to be certain.
The drill is well-known by now. (If not ask in the thread!)
Welcome, Bots and Humans alike are!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
anthu_001[ *-*-*-*- ]hotmail.com
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Replace [ *-*-*-*- ] with the at-symbol first.
Before you submit, check that all the OKs are there.
And as always: Luck has nothing to do with it.

R E M I N D E R !!!
(Still no entries at all...)

working on it.

[anders t]

Post by anders t
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNOUNCING - THE EPL 2024/2025 SOPHCON
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DEADLINE AT KICK-OFF OF THE ABSOLUTELY FIRST FIXTURE
SPREADSHEET AVAILABLE HERE: http://spc.elgunet.se/spc.html
You might get a warning by your virus software, but there is
nothing fishy about the page/file. As always you should of
course check the file with your own software to be certain.
The drill is well-known by now. (If not ask in the thread!)
Welcome, Bots and Humans alike are!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
anthu_001[ *-*-*-*- ]hotmail.com
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Replace [ *-*-*-*- ] with the at-symbol first.
Before you submit, check that all the OKs are there.
And as always: Luck has nothing to do with it.

Still not one single entry!

Just one day to go now.

[Werner Pichler]

Post by anders t

Post by anders t
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNOUNCING - THE EPL 2024/2025 SOPHCON
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DEADLINE AT KICK-OFF OF THE ABSOLUTELY FIRST FIXTURE
SPREADSHEET AVAILABLE HERE: http://spc.elgunet.se/spc.html
You might get a warning by your virus software, but there is
nothing fishy about the page/file. As always you should of
course check the file with your own software to be certain.
The drill is well-known by now. (If not ask in the thread!)
Welcome, Bots and Humans alike are!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
anthu_001[ *-*-*-*- ]hotmail.com
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Replace [ *-*-*-*- ] with the at-symbol first.
Before you submit, check that all the OKs are there.
And as always: Luck has nothing to do with it.

Still not one single entry!
Just one day to go now.

Plenty of time!

You'll get mine.

Ciao,
Werner

[anders t]

Post by Werner Pichler
Plenty of time!
You'll get mine.

A battle between MH, you, and me!

[MH]

Post by anders t

Post by Werner Pichler
Plenty of time!
You'll get mine.

A battle between MH, you, and me!

Mine is in. But it is not very good. Had trouble trying to calculate in
the probability of points deductions as I mentioned elsewhere.

[Silver Skull]

Post by anders t

Post by anders t
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNOUNCING - THE EPL 2024/2025 SOPHCON
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DEADLINE AT KICK-OFF OF THE ABSOLUTELY FIRST FIXTURE
SPREADSHEET AVAILABLE HERE: http://spc.elgunet.se/spc.html
You might get a warning by your virus software, but there is
nothing fishy about the page/file. As always you should of
course check the file with your own software to be certain.
The drill is well-known by now. (If not ask in the thread!)
Welcome, Bots and Humans alike are!
And as always: Luck has nothing to do with it.

Still not one single entry!

I did look but it seemed a bit complicated.

[anders t]

Post by Silver Skull

Post by anders t

Post by anders t
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNOUNCING - THE EPL 2024/2025 SOPHCON
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DEADLINE AT KICK-OFF OF THE ABSOLUTELY FIRST FIXTURE
SPREADSHEET AVAILABLE HERE: http://spc.elgunet.se/spc.html
You might get a warning by your virus software, but there is
nothing fishy about the page/file. As always you should of
course check the file with your own software to be certain.
The drill is well-known by now. (If not ask in the thread!)
Welcome, Bots and Humans alike are!
And as always: Luck has nothing to do with it.

Still not one single entry!

I did look but it seemed a bit complicated.

It's not really complicated, but takes a little time to get all sums right
in the end.

[MH]

Post by anders t

Post by anders t
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANNOUNCING - THE EPL 2024/2025 SOPHCON
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DEADLINE AT KICK-OFF OF THE ABSOLUTELY FIRST FIXTURE
SPREADSHEET AVAILABLE HERE: http://spc.elgunet.se/spc.html
You might get a warning by your virus software, but there is
nothing fishy about the page/file. As always you should of
course check the file with your own software to be certain.
The drill is well-known by now. (If not ask in the thread!)
Welcome, Bots and Humans alike are!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
anthu_001[ *-*-*-*- ]hotmail.com
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Replace [ *-*-*-*- ] with the at-symbol first.
Before you submit, check that all the OKs are there.
And as always: Luck has nothing to do with it.

Still not one single entry!
Just one day to go now.

Very difficult this year if points penalties are going to be a factor.
Are Everton, Forest, Leicester and Man City not all in danger of losing
points for financial reasons? Makes predicting things a bit more
challenging.

[MH]

Post by anders t
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HEADS UP - ANNOUNCING - THE EPL 24/25 SOPHCON
DEADLINE WILL BE AT KICK-OFF OF THE ABSOLUTELY FIRST GAME
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPREADSHEET AVAILABLE: latest during next week as a reply to this post
Btw: There will be a few changes of the division of the positions...

What am I missing about 17th place ? Why is is important to distinguish
it from 16th ?

Also, surely 5-7 are not equivalent, with the 5th placed team in the
running for a CL place under the new format (if the one-year coefficient
of the EPL is among the top 2). Even without that, 5th place guarantees
a EL place, whereas 6th does not (if the cup winner finishes seventh or
lower).

Not a big deal, just puzzled.

[anders t]

Post by MH

Post by anders t
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HEADS UP - ANNOUNCING - THE EPL 24/25 SOPHCON
DEADLINE WILL BE AT KICK-OFF OF THE ABSOLUTELY FIRST GAME
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPREADSHEET AVAILABLE: latest during next week as a reply to this post
Btw: There will be a few changes of the division of the positions...

What am I missing about 17th place ? Why is is important to distinguish
it from 16th ?

17 is the last team to survive! The last winner (paraphrasing first loser).

Post by MH
Also, surely 5-7 are not equivalent, with the 5th placed team in the
running for a CL place under the new format (if the one-year coefficient
of the EPL is among the top 2). Even without that, 5th place guarantees
a EL place, whereas 6th does not (if the cup winner finishes seventh or
lower).

I decided to keep the column number down.

Post by MH
Not a big deal, just puzzled.

We aim to please!

(As you can see I'm with Usenet account again - "Pure Usenet" - two week
trial.)

[anders t]

First entry in!

Humans:
MH


Bots:

[anders t]

Entries so far. Soon deadline!

Humans:
MH
JP
AT

Bots:

[anders t]

Entries so far. VERY soon deadline!

Humans:
MH
JP
AT
WP

Bots:

[anders t]

And that's it. It's all about humans this season.

Game on!

Humans:
MH
JP
AT
WP

Bots:
None

[anders t]

Post by anders t
And that's it. It's all about humans this season.
Game on!
MH
JP
AT
WP
None

Looks like I'm the only one to speculate in HEAVY points deduction for City
- relegation heavy. :-)

[Blueshirt]

Post by anders t
Looks like I'm the only one to speculate in HEAVY points
deduction for City - relegation heavy. :-)

That's not called speculating, that's called hopium...

Last season, Manchester City would have needed to have been
deducted 66 points to be relegated... that's beyond HEAVY! ;-)

[anders t]

Post by Blueshirt

Post by anders t
Looks like I'm the only one to speculate in HEAVY points
deduction for City - relegation heavy. :-)

That's not called speculating, that's called hopium...
Last season, Manchester City would have needed to have been
deducted 66 points to be relegated... that's beyond HEAVY! ;-)

Well, I've seen actual speculations that there could be 70-80 points
deduction JUST because of this. To ensure the Man C relegation.

[Blueshirt]

Post by anders t

Post by Blueshirt

Post by anders t
Looks like I'm the only one to speculate in HEAVY points
deduction for City - relegation heavy. :-)

That's not called speculating, that's called hopium...
Last season, Manchester City would have needed to have been
deducted 66 points to be relegated... that's beyond HEAVY!
;-)

Well, I've seen actual speculations that there could be 70-80
points deduction JUST because of this. To ensure the Man C
relegation.

Technically they don't need to do a BIG points deduction to
relegate Manchester City, as automatic expulsion from the
Premier League is one of the punishments they have at their
disposal if Manchester City are found guilty... as is, titles
being stripped, transfer bans and of course, points deductions.

But if anyone seriously thinks Manchester City won't be in the
Premier League in the 2025/26 season I'd say that is more
wishful thinking than anything else, as I don't see that
scenario happening... I don't think the Premier League really
want to see that happen either.

[anders t]

Post by Blueshirt
Technically they don't need to do a BIG points deduction to
relegate Manchester City, as automatic expulsion from the
Premier League is one of the punishments they have at their
disposal if Manchester City are found guilty... as is, titles
being stripped, transfer bans and of course, points deductions.
But if anyone seriously thinks Manchester City won't be in the
Premier League in the 2025/26 season I'd say that is more
wishful thinking than anything else, as I don't see that
scenario happening... I don't think the Premier League really
want to see that happen either.

If you are so sure why didn't you play? It's easy to talk!

[Blueshirt]

Post by anders t

Post by Blueshirt
Technically they don't need to do a BIG points deduction to
relegate Manchester City, as automatic expulsion from the
Premier League is one of the punishments they have at their
disposal if Manchester City are found guilty... as is, titles
being stripped, transfer bans and of course, points
deductions.
But if anyone seriously thinks Manchester City won't be in
the Premier League in the 2025/26 season I'd say that is more
wishful thinking than anything else, as I don't see that
scenario happening... I don't think the Premier League really
want to see that happen either.

If you are so sure why didn't you play? It's easy to talk!

Nah, it looked quite boring to me. All that % stuff goes over my
head... I play FPL, that's enough to be wrecking my head over!
(And at least the RSS FPL mini-league has more than three people
taking part!)

However, I am happy to make a bold prediction that Manchester
City will win the Premier League [*] very closely followed by
Arsenal...

[* barring a points deduction of course!]

[MH]

Post by anders t

Post by anders t
And that's it. It's all about humans this season.
Game on!
MH
JP
AT
WP
None

Looks like I'm the only one to speculate in HEAVY points deduction for City
- relegation heavy. :-)

Well I did speculate on a substantial points deduction for City - 10 %
for them to finish out of the European places. I can see them possibly
getting deducted 30-50 points, which would probably not be enough to
relegate them. On the other hand, who knows? I would put a high
percentage on a number of penalties this year, and then all of them
going to appeal and being reduced.

[Blueshirt]

Post by MH

Post by anders t
Looks like I'm the only one to speculate in HEAVY points
deduction for City - relegation heavy. :-)

Well I did speculate on a substantial points deduction for
City - 10 % for them to finish out of the European places.

THAT I can see happening... if Manchester City do get found
guilty. (Despite popular opinion they haven't been found guilty
of any of the charges yet. Plus they can afford to hire the best
legal team in the land to handle their defence... and have done
in Lord Pannick KC!)

Post by MH
can see them possibly getting deducted 30-50 points, which
would probably not be enough to relegate them. On the other
hand, who knows? I would put a high percentage on a number of
penalties this year, and then all of them going to appeal and
being reduced.

I wonder how much of that is taken in to account when the point
deductions are awarded? As in, the panel must know that any
judgement with a punishment of a points deduction is going to be
appealed. So do they give a few extra points knowing they might
be taken off on appeal?

[Futbolmetrix]

Post by anders t
And that's it. It's all about humans this season.
Game on!
MH
JP
AT
WP
None

Sorry I missed it this year. I can try to post the bots' prediction
based just on preseason rankings if you'll accept it

[MH]

Post by Futbolmetrix

Post by anders t
And that's it. It's all about humans this season.
Game on!
MH
JP
AT
WP
None

Sorry I missed it this year. I can try to post the bots' prediction
based just on preseason rankings if you'll accept it

Not sure how Anders and the others feel, but I think one match is so
little of an advantage in a 38 game season, that I would have no problem
accepting late entries from you (or anyone else) and the bots.

[anders t]

Post by MH

Post by Futbolmetrix

Post by anders t
And that's it. It's all about humans this season.
Game on!
MH
JP
AT
WP
None

Sorry I missed it this year. I can try to post the bots' prediction
based just on preseason rankings if you'll accept it

Not sure how Anders and the others feel, but I think one match is so
little of an advantage in a 38 game season, that I would have no problem
accepting late entries from you (or anyone else) and the bots.

It's not only about one game or not, but also about more information about
possible or actual late transfers (and of course information around City
115).

But I'll certainly accept if FM puts in bot entries based on data pre 1
round.

[Futbolmetrix]

Post by anders t

Post by MH

Post by Futbolmetrix

Post by anders t
And that's it. It's all about humans this season.
Game on!
MH
JP
AT
WP
None

Sorry I missed it this year. I can try to post the bots' prediction
based just on preseason rankings if you'll accept it

Not sure how Anders and the others feel, but I think one match is so
little of an advantage in a 38 game season, that I would have no problem
accepting late entries from you (or anyone else) and the bots.

It's not only about one game or not, but also about more information
about possible or actual late transfers (and of course information
around City
115).

I agree with that, that's why I didn't ask my human entry to enter the
competition.

Post by anders t
But I'll certainly accept if FM puts in bot entries based on data pre 1
round.

I have the preseason ClubElo rating and will make a prediction based on
that. As for TransferMarkt, I only have data as of right now
(2024-08-21, 7:06am EDT), which may include value changes after the
first match, or late roster changes. I'm going to argue that these
things are sufficiently marginal that you can consider the
TransferMarkt-based prediction as a preseason prediction.

Will send the predictions sometime this week.

[Werner Pichler]

Post by Futbolmetrix

Post by anders t

Post by MH

Post by Futbolmetrix

Post by anders t
And that's it. It's all about humans this season.
Game on!
MH
JP
AT
WP
None

Sorry I missed it this year. I can try to post the bots' prediction
based just on preseason rankings if you'll accept it

Not sure how Anders and the others feel, but I think one match is so
little of an advantage in a 38 game season, that I would have no problem
accepting late entries from you (or anyone else) and the bots.

It's not only about one game or not, but also about more information
about possible or actual late transfers (and of course information
around City
115).

I agree with that, that's why I didn't ask my human entry to enter the
competition.

Post by anders t
But I'll certainly accept if FM puts in bot entries based on data pre 1
round.

I have the preseason ClubElo rating and will make a prediction based on
that. As for TransferMarkt, I only have data as of right now
(2024-08-21, 7:06am EDT), which may include value changes after the
first match, or late roster changes. I'm going to argue that these
things are sufficiently marginal that you can consider the
TransferMarkt-based prediction as a preseason prediction.

Transfermarkt adjust their market values at certain dates and as far as
I'm aware after usually lively discussion. The last update was on July
19th.

https://www.transfermarkt.com/premier-league/marktwertaenderungen/wettbewerb/GB1/pos//detailpos/0/verein_id/0/land_id/0/plus/1


Ciao,
Werner

Post by Futbolmetrix
Will send the predictions sometime this week.

[anders t]

Post by Futbolmetrix
I have the preseason ClubElo rating and will make a prediction based on
that. As for TransferMarkt, I only have data as of right now
(2024-08-21, 7:06am EDT), which may include value changes after the
first match, or late roster changes. I'm going to argue that these
things are sufficiently marginal that you can consider the
TransferMarkt-based prediction as a preseason prediction.
Will send the predictions sometime this week.

How's it going?

[Futbolmetrix]

Post by anders t
How's it going?

You have mail.

I sent in 6 bot predictions. The first three are:

ClubElo: based on pre-season ClubElo ratingsm
TransferMarkt: based on preseason(*) TM ratings
WageBill: based on Fbref/Capology wage bill ratings


The second three (ClubEloPlus, TransferMarktPlus and WageBillPlus) are
based on the same ratings as above, but assume that ratings can vary
over the season (so inject a bit more uncertainty)

[anders t]

Post by Futbolmetrix

Post by anders t
How's it going?

You have mail.

Yes, got it!

Post by Futbolmetrix
ClubElo: based on pre-season ClubElo ratingsm
TransferMarkt: based on preseason(*) TM ratings
WageBill: based on Fbref/Capology wage bill ratings
The second three (ClubEloPlus, TransferMarktPlus and WageBillPlus) are
based on the same ratings as above, but assume that ratings can vary
over the season (so inject a bit more uncertainty)

[anders t]

My entry:
2000 5498 2000 0500 0001 0001
0001 1500 2428 6069 0001 0001
0001 0001 1000 6061 0937 2000
0001 0001 0050 7011 0937 2000
0001 0500 2000 7299 0100 0100
1500 4998 3000 0500 0001 0001
0001 0001 1000 6061 0937 2000
0001 0001 0050 7010 0938 2000
0001 0001 0050 7011 0937 2000
0001 0001 0001 1500 3305 5192
0001 0001 0001 6097 0500 3400
1500 4998 3000 0500 0001 0001
3000 3998 2000 0001 0001 1000
1500 4998 3000 0500 0001 0001
0001 1000 2428 6569 0001 0001
0001 0001 0001 6097 0500 3400
0001 0001 0001 6097 0500 3400
0486 2000 5512 2000 0001 0001
0001 0500 2428 7069 0001 0001
0001 0001 0050 6048 0400 3500

[anders t]

The combined human prediction for #1

0,3120 Manchester City
0,1963 Arsenal
0,1832 Liverpool
0,1150 Manchester United
0,1025 Chelsea
0,0672 Tottenham
0,0158 Newcastle
0,0060 Aston Villa
0,0008 Everton
0,0003 West Ham
0,0001 Bournemouth
0,0001 Brentford
0,0001 Brighton
0,0001 Crystal Palace
0,0001 Fulham
0,0001 Ipswich
0,0001 Leicester
0,0001 Nottingham
0,0001 Southampton
0,0001 Wolverhampton