Post by Silver SkullWhat is a "sophcon" ? ? ?
Sophcon is short for Sophisticated Contest.
I think Futbolmetrix has a mathematical description ready-written
somewhere?
But in general you need to assign a probability for each possible (defined)
outcome that can happen for a team (or player) in a certain competition.
The sum of the probabilities for each team (player) (the rows) must sum to
exactly 1.
The sum of the probabilities for a possible outcome must sum exactly to the
number of teams (players) (the columns) that can end up with that outcome.
Example
Team, Outcome 1 (2 teams), Outcome 2 (1 team), Outcome 3 (1 team)
========================================================
A 0.5000 0.2500 0.2500 || 1.0000
B 0.2495 0.2000 0.5505 || 1.0000
C 0.4000 0.4006 0.1994 || 1.0000
D 0.8505 0.1494 0.0001 || 1.0000
==============================
S 2.0000 1.0000 1.0000
Outcome 1 could here mean losing in a semifinal.
Outcome 2 could mean losing the final.
Outcome 3 could mean winning the final.
This example then means that the Predictor thinks that it is more probable
that teams A and D lose their semifinals and that team C then (probably)
loses the final.
You can also see that he Predictor basically thinks NO CHANCE team D wins
the final. (But in a real sports competition there is no NO chance, just
VERY VERY VERY SMALL chance)
I hope I got everything right there.
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