Discussion:
The RSS John de Lange European Cups 2018-2019 Sophisticated Prediction Contest
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Futbolmetrix
2018-09-14 17:44:07 UTC
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Announcement and spreadsheets downloadable here:

https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2018/09/14/european-cups-2018-2019-sophisticated-prediction-contest-group-stage/

May the most Sophisticated man, woman or BOT win!
Futbolmetrix
2018-09-14 19:40:16 UTC
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Post by Futbolmetrix
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2018/09/14/european-cups-2018-2019-sophisticated-prediction-contest-group-stage/
May the most Sophisticated man, woman or BOT win!
First two UCL entries:

Agnostic
FiveThirtyEight
anders t
2018-09-17 08:55:40 UTC
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Post by Futbolmetrix
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2018/09/14/european-cups-2018-2019-sophisticated-prediction-contest-group-stage/
May the most Sophisticated man, woman or BOT win!
Did you get my UCL thing?
--
Manchester United FC - CHAMPIONS
Latest: England '13 (20th) Europa '17, UEFA '08, World '08
Futbolmetrix
2018-09-17 12:07:18 UTC
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Post by anders t
Post by Futbolmetrix
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2018/09/14/european-cups-2018-2019-sophisticated-prediction-contest-group-stage/
May the most Sophisticated man, woman or BOT win!
Did you get my UCL thing?
Yes.
UCL SophCon entries so far:

Agnostic
FiveThirtyEight
ClubElo
TransferMarkt
Lorenzo Carli
Anders T


EL entries so far:
Agnostic
FiveThirtyEight
ClubElo
anders t
2018-09-17 13:04:57 UTC
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Post by Futbolmetrix
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2018/09/14/european-cups-2018-2019-sophisticated-prediction-contest-group-stage/
May the most Sophisticated man, woman or BOT win!
I have a small question. Just to be sure... What does P_R1 mean in the EL
doc? I'm guessing it means the chance to _advance_. I.e. a high number is
good for the club in question.
--
Manchester United FC - CHAMPIONS
Latest: England '13 (20th) Europa '17, UEFA '08, World '08
Futbolmetrix
2018-09-17 13:23:42 UTC
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Post by anders t
Post by Futbolmetrix
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2018/09/14/european-cups-2018-2019-sophisticated-prediction-contest-group-stage/
May the most Sophisticated man, woman or BOT win!
I have a small question. Just to be sure... What does P_R1 mean in the EL
doc? I'm guessing it means the chance to _advance_. I.e. a high number is
good for the club in question.
Yes, P_R1 is the probability to advance.
MH
2018-09-17 20:48:31 UTC
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Post by Futbolmetrix
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2018/09/14/european-cups-2018-2019-sophisticated-prediction-contest-group-stage/
May the most Sophisticated man, woman or BOT win!
Will get the CL one done today (maybe quite late) and the EL one
tomorrow or weds. I assume there are no early EL games this week ?
t***@gmail.com
2018-09-18 11:34:03 UTC
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Post by MH
Will get the CL one done today (maybe quite late) and the EL one
tomorrow or weds. I assume there are no early EL games this week ?
CL entries so far:

Agnostic
FiveThirtyEight
ClubElo
TransferMarkt
Jesper
Anders T
Futbolmetrix
@fitbawnumbers
MH
Lorenzo Carli
Remiqz
Futbolmetrix
2018-09-26 11:03:22 UTC
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Post by Futbolmetrix
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2018/09/14/european-cups-2018-2019-sophisticated-prediction-contest-group-stage/
May the most Sophisticated man, woman or BOT win!
Standings after day 1:

https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/european-cups-sophcon-standings-after-match-day-1/

TransferMarkt in the lead for the CL, MH for EL
MH
2018-09-26 17:38:50 UTC
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Post by Futbolmetrix
Post by Futbolmetrix
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2018/09/14/european-cups-2018-2019-sophisticated-prediction-contest-group-stage/
May the most Sophisticated man, woman or BOT win!
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/european-cups-sophcon-standings-after-match-day-1/
TransferMarkt in the lead for the CL, MH for EL
Is collective consciousness just humans, or does it include bots ? Can
there be any circumstances where collective consciousness could win ?
There should be, but I don't recall CC ever coming close.
Jesper Lauridsen
2018-09-26 19:36:54 UTC
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Post by MH
Post by Futbolmetrix
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/european-cups-sophcon-standings-after-match-day-1/
The decimal point in my CL score seems to have been moved a step to
the right. I suspect foul play.
Post by MH
Is collective consciousness just humans, or does it include bots ? Can
there be any circumstances where collective consciousness could win ?
There should be, but I don't recall CC ever coming close.
I'm positive that I've seen Collie on top of some intermediate
standings at some point.
Futbolmetrix
2018-09-26 20:44:25 UTC
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Post by MH
Post by Futbolmetrix
Post by Futbolmetrix
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2018/09/14/european-cups-2018-2019-sophisticated-prediction-contest-group-stage/
May the most Sophisticated man, woman or BOT win!
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/european-cups-sophcon-standings-after-match-day-1/
TransferMarkt in the lead for the CL, MH for EL
By the way, there was a mistake in the original CL spreadsheet. The
correct standings are the following:

https://twitter.com/Futbolmetrix1/status/1044923877938409472

(Hall of Shame for everybody)
Post by MH
Is collective consciousness just humans, or does it include bots ?
Includes everybody. One could do Collectibe Humans and Collective BOTs,
but I can't really be bothered.
Post by MH
Can
there be any circumstances where collective consciousness could win ?
There should be, but I don't recall CC ever coming close.
No reason why not. I think it was in the running for the overall title
just last year in one of the competitions before the semifinal stage.
Jesper Lauridsen
2018-10-25 08:58:59 UTC
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UCL standings halfway through:

TransferMarkt -17,459
Futbolmetrix -18,319
Werner Pichler -18,486
MH -19,934
Jesper -20,276
Remiqz -20,660
CollectiveConsciousness -20,950
Lorenzo Carli -21,111
DecTech -21,217
ClubElo -21,515
FiveThirtyEight -22,784
fitbawnumbers -22,948
Anders T -23,073
UEFA -24,917
Agnostic -33,271

Can the humans overcome the mighty (transfer)market forces?
Futbolmetrix
2018-11-09 20:22:46 UTC
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Post by Jesper Lauridsen
TransferMarkt -17,459
Futbolmetrix -18,319
Werner Pichler -18,486
MH -19,934
Jesper -20,276
Remiqz -20,660
CollectiveConsciousness -20,950
Lorenzo Carli -21,111
DecTech -21,217
ClubElo -21,515
FiveThirtyEight -22,784
fitbawnumbers -22,948
Anders T -23,073
UEFA -24,917
Agnostic -33,271
Standings after MD4:

https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2018/11/09/european-cups-sophisticated-prediction-contest-standings-after-md4/

TransferMarkt with what looks like an unassailable lead in the UCL (even
though nothing is really unassailable in SophCon world).

TransferMarkt and yours truly in a neck and neck battle in the EL.
Jesper Lauridsen
2018-11-15 21:19:59 UTC
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Post by Futbolmetrix
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2018/11/09/european-cups-sophisticated-prediction-contest-standings-after-md4/
TransferMarkt with what looks like an unassailable lead in the UCL (even
though nothing is really unassailable in SophCon world).
TransferMarkt and yours truly in a neck and neck battle in the EL.
I agree with Werner, Vidi is a stupid name.
Futbolmetrix
2018-12-14 12:05:37 UTC
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Post by Futbolmetrix
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2018/09/14/european-cups-2018-2019-sophisticated-prediction-contest-group-stage/
May the most Sophisticated man, woman or BOT win!
Final standings:

UCL SophCon:
1 DecTech -18.504
2 Werner Pichler -19.559
3 Futbolmetrix -20.549
4 TransferMarkt -20.622
5 Lorenzo Carli -20.637
6 Remiqz -21.357
7 UEFA -21.381
8 ClubElo -21.490
9 CollectiveConsciousness -21.817
10 FiveThirtyEight -21.885
11 fitbawnumbers -22.745
12 Jesper -24.075
13 Anders T -26.181
14 Agnostic -33.271
15 MH -34.535


The new BOT DecTech captures first place. Hall of Shame for MH....


EL SophCon

1 MH -24.579
2 TransferMarkt -27.179
3 Collective Consciousness -27.675
4 ClubElo -28.115
5 Anders T -29.498
6 Futbolmetrix -29.559
7 UEFA -29.659
8 Jesper -30.653
9 FiveThirtyEight -31.418
10 Werner Pichler -31.631
11 Agnostic -33.271

...who redeems himself immediately in the EL.

Thanks to all for playing. Further comments and analysis:

futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2018/12/14/european-cups-sophisticated-prediction-contest-final-standings/


Thanks to all for playing.
MH
2018-12-14 17:14:51 UTC
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Post by Futbolmetrix
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2018/09/14/european-cups-2018-2019-sophisticated-prediction-contest-group-stage/
May the most Sophisticated man, woman or BOT win!
1    DecTech    -18.504
2    Werner Pichler    -19.559
3    Futbolmetrix    -20.549
4    TransferMarkt    -20.622
5    Lorenzo Carli    -20.637
6    Remiqz    -21.357
7    UEFA    -21.381
8    ClubElo    -21.490
9    CollectiveConsciousness    -21.817
10    FiveThirtyEight    -21.885
11    fitbawnumbers    -22.745
12    Jesper    -24.075
13    Anders T    -26.181
14    Agnostic    -33.271
15    MH    -34.535
The new BOT DecTech captures first place. Hall of Shame for MH....
Weird. Only serious mistake I made was giving Plzen a very low
probability of anything other than 4th place, and CSKA a correspondingly
low probability of 4th. Only other teams scoring below -2 were
Monaco/Bruges, but I imagine that was true for many people.
EL SophCon
1    MH    -24.579
2    TransferMarkt    -27.179
3    Collective Consciousness    -27.675
4    ClubElo    -28.115
5    Anders T    -29.498
6    Futbolmetrix    -29.559
7    UEFA    -29.659
8    Jesper    -30.653
9    FiveThirtyEight    -31.418
10    Werner Pichler    -31.631
11    Agnostic    -33.271
...who redeems himself immediately in the EL.
Really a surprise to me that nobody did better. Here my strategy was
fairly risk averse (which may be a good idea in the EL, when you never
know which teams will take it seriously)
futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2018/12/14/european-cups-sophisticated-prediction-contest-final-standings/
Thanks to all for playing.
Werner Pichler
2019-02-25 12:50:21 UTC
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Post by Futbolmetrix
Post by Futbolmetrix
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2018/09/14/european-cups-2018-2019-sophisticated-prediction-contest-group-stage/
May the most Sophisticated man, woman or BOT win!
1 DecTech -18.504
2 Werner Pichler -19.559
3 Futbolmetrix -20.549
4 TransferMarkt -20.622
5 Lorenzo Carli -20.637
I don't know who he is, but I just saw that back in December he advertised the
SophCons on Bert Kassies's forum where it was quite enthusiastically received
by the statheads there. Perhaps there'll be more participants in the future.

Ciao,
Werner

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