Discussion:
The RSS John de Lange European Cups 2018-2019 Sophisticated Prediction Contest
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Futbolmetrix
2018-09-14 17:44:07 UTC
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Announcement and spreadsheets downloadable here:

https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2018/09/14/european-cups-2018-2019-sophisticated-prediction-contest-group-stage/

May the most Sophisticated man, woman or BOT win!
Futbolmetrix
2018-09-14 19:40:16 UTC
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Post by Futbolmetrix
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2018/09/14/european-cups-2018-2019-sophisticated-prediction-contest-group-stage/
May the most Sophisticated man, woman or BOT win!
First two UCL entries:

Agnostic
FiveThirtyEight
anders t
2018-09-17 08:55:40 UTC
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Post by Futbolmetrix
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2018/09/14/european-cups-2018-2019-sophisticated-prediction-contest-group-stage/
May the most Sophisticated man, woman or BOT win!
Did you get my UCL thing?
--
Manchester United FC - CHAMPIONS
Latest: England '13 (20th) Europa '17, UEFA '08, World '08
Futbolmetrix
2018-09-17 12:07:18 UTC
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Post by anders t
Post by Futbolmetrix
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2018/09/14/european-cups-2018-2019-sophisticated-prediction-contest-group-stage/
May the most Sophisticated man, woman or BOT win!
Did you get my UCL thing?
Yes.
UCL SophCon entries so far:

Agnostic
FiveThirtyEight
ClubElo
TransferMarkt
Lorenzo Carli
Anders T


EL entries so far:
Agnostic
FiveThirtyEight
ClubElo
anders t
2018-09-17 13:04:57 UTC
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Post by Futbolmetrix
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2018/09/14/european-cups-2018-2019-sophisticated-prediction-contest-group-stage/
May the most Sophisticated man, woman or BOT win!
I have a small question. Just to be sure... What does P_R1 mean in the EL
doc? I'm guessing it means the chance to _advance_. I.e. a high number is
good for the club in question.
--
Manchester United FC - CHAMPIONS
Latest: England '13 (20th) Europa '17, UEFA '08, World '08
Futbolmetrix
2018-09-17 13:23:42 UTC
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Post by anders t
Post by Futbolmetrix
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2018/09/14/european-cups-2018-2019-sophisticated-prediction-contest-group-stage/
May the most Sophisticated man, woman or BOT win!
I have a small question. Just to be sure... What does P_R1 mean in the EL
doc? I'm guessing it means the chance to _advance_. I.e. a high number is
good for the club in question.
Yes, P_R1 is the probability to advance.
MH
2018-09-17 20:48:31 UTC
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Post by Futbolmetrix
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2018/09/14/european-cups-2018-2019-sophisticated-prediction-contest-group-stage/
May the most Sophisticated man, woman or BOT win!
Will get the CL one done today (maybe quite late) and the EL one
tomorrow or weds. I assume there are no early EL games this week ?
t***@gmail.com
2018-09-18 11:34:03 UTC
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Post by MH
Will get the CL one done today (maybe quite late) and the EL one
tomorrow or weds. I assume there are no early EL games this week ?
CL entries so far:

Agnostic
FiveThirtyEight
ClubElo
TransferMarkt
Jesper
Anders T
Futbolmetrix
@fitbawnumbers
MH
Lorenzo Carli
Remiqz
Futbolmetrix
2018-09-26 11:03:22 UTC
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Post by Futbolmetrix
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2018/09/14/european-cups-2018-2019-sophisticated-prediction-contest-group-stage/
May the most Sophisticated man, woman or BOT win!
Standings after day 1:

https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/european-cups-sophcon-standings-after-match-day-1/

TransferMarkt in the lead for the CL, MH for EL
MH
2018-09-26 17:38:50 UTC
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Post by Futbolmetrix
Post by Futbolmetrix
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2018/09/14/european-cups-2018-2019-sophisticated-prediction-contest-group-stage/
May the most Sophisticated man, woman or BOT win!
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/european-cups-sophcon-standings-after-match-day-1/
TransferMarkt in the lead for the CL, MH for EL
Is collective consciousness just humans, or does it include bots ? Can
there be any circumstances where collective consciousness could win ?
There should be, but I don't recall CC ever coming close.
Jesper Lauridsen
2018-09-26 19:36:54 UTC
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Post by MH
Post by Futbolmetrix
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/european-cups-sophcon-standings-after-match-day-1/
The decimal point in my CL score seems to have been moved a step to
the right. I suspect foul play.
Post by MH
Is collective consciousness just humans, or does it include bots ? Can
there be any circumstances where collective consciousness could win ?
There should be, but I don't recall CC ever coming close.
I'm positive that I've seen Collie on top of some intermediate
standings at some point.
Futbolmetrix
2018-09-26 20:44:25 UTC
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Post by MH
Post by Futbolmetrix
Post by Futbolmetrix
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2018/09/14/european-cups-2018-2019-sophisticated-prediction-contest-group-stage/
May the most Sophisticated man, woman or BOT win!
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/european-cups-sophcon-standings-after-match-day-1/
TransferMarkt in the lead for the CL, MH for EL
By the way, there was a mistake in the original CL spreadsheet. The
correct standings are the following:

https://twitter.com/Futbolmetrix1/status/1044923877938409472

(Hall of Shame for everybody)
Post by MH
Is collective consciousness just humans, or does it include bots ?
Includes everybody. One could do Collectibe Humans and Collective BOTs,
but I can't really be bothered.
Post by MH
Can
there be any circumstances where collective consciousness could win ?
There should be, but I don't recall CC ever coming close.
No reason why not. I think it was in the running for the overall title
just last year in one of the competitions before the semifinal stage.
Jesper Lauridsen
2018-10-25 08:58:59 UTC
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UCL standings halfway through:

TransferMarkt -17,459
Futbolmetrix -18,319
Werner Pichler -18,486
MH -19,934
Jesper -20,276
Remiqz -20,660
CollectiveConsciousness -20,950
Lorenzo Carli -21,111
DecTech -21,217
ClubElo -21,515
FiveThirtyEight -22,784
fitbawnumbers -22,948
Anders T -23,073
UEFA -24,917
Agnostic -33,271

Can the humans overcome the mighty (transfer)market forces?
Futbolmetrix
2018-11-09 20:22:46 UTC
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Post by Jesper Lauridsen
TransferMarkt -17,459
Futbolmetrix -18,319
Werner Pichler -18,486
MH -19,934
Jesper -20,276
Remiqz -20,660
CollectiveConsciousness -20,950
Lorenzo Carli -21,111
DecTech -21,217
ClubElo -21,515
FiveThirtyEight -22,784
fitbawnumbers -22,948
Anders T -23,073
UEFA -24,917
Agnostic -33,271
Standings after MD4:

https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2018/11/09/european-cups-sophisticated-prediction-contest-standings-after-md4/

TransferMarkt with what looks like an unassailable lead in the UCL (even
though nothing is really unassailable in SophCon world).

TransferMarkt and yours truly in a neck and neck battle in the EL.
Jesper Lauridsen
2018-11-15 21:19:59 UTC
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Post by Futbolmetrix
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2018/11/09/european-cups-sophisticated-prediction-contest-standings-after-md4/
TransferMarkt with what looks like an unassailable lead in the UCL (even
though nothing is really unassailable in SophCon world).
TransferMarkt and yours truly in a neck and neck battle in the EL.
I agree with Werner, Vidi is a stupid name.
Futbolmetrix
2018-12-14 12:05:37 UTC
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Post by Futbolmetrix
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2018/09/14/european-cups-2018-2019-sophisticated-prediction-contest-group-stage/
May the most Sophisticated man, woman or BOT win!
Final standings:

UCL SophCon:
1 DecTech -18.504
2 Werner Pichler -19.559
3 Futbolmetrix -20.549
4 TransferMarkt -20.622
5 Lorenzo Carli -20.637
6 Remiqz -21.357
7 UEFA -21.381
8 ClubElo -21.490
9 CollectiveConsciousness -21.817
10 FiveThirtyEight -21.885
11 fitbawnumbers -22.745
12 Jesper -24.075
13 Anders T -26.181
14 Agnostic -33.271
15 MH -34.535


The new BOT DecTech captures first place. Hall of Shame for MH....


EL SophCon

1 MH -24.579
2 TransferMarkt -27.179
3 Collective Consciousness -27.675
4 ClubElo -28.115
5 Anders T -29.498
6 Futbolmetrix -29.559
7 UEFA -29.659
8 Jesper -30.653
9 FiveThirtyEight -31.418
10 Werner Pichler -31.631
11 Agnostic -33.271

...who redeems himself immediately in the EL.

Thanks to all for playing. Further comments and analysis:

futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2018/12/14/european-cups-sophisticated-prediction-contest-final-standings/


Thanks to all for playing.

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