Discussion:
Euro 2020 [R]
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Jesper Lauridsen
2018-12-02 12:34:53 UTC
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The qualifiying draw. 1st & 2nd to qualify.


Group A
England
Czech Republic
Bulgaria
Montenegro
Kosovo


Group B
Portugal
Ukraine
Serbia
Lithuania
Luxembourg


Group C
Netherlands
Germany
Northern Ireland
Estonia
Belarus

Nice


Group D
Switzerland
Denmark
Republic of Ireland
Georgia
Gibraltar

I like it.


Group E
Croatia
Wales
Slovakia
Hungary
Azerbaijan


Group F
Spain
Sweden
Norway
Romania
Faroe Islands
Malta


Group G
Poland
Austria
Israel
Slovenia
FYR Macedonia
Latvia


Group H
France
Iceland
Turkey
Albania
Moldova
Andorra


Group I
Belgium
Russia
Scotland
Cyprus
Kazakhstan
San Marino


Group J
Italy
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Finland
Greece
Armenia
Liechtenstein
The Doctor
2018-12-02 13:19:39 UTC
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Post by Jesper Lauridsen
The qualifiying draw. 1st & 2nd to qualify.
Group A
England
Czech Republic
Bulgaria
Montenegro
Kosovo
Group B
Portugal
Ukraine
Serbia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Group C
Netherlands
Germany
Northern Ireland
Estonia
Belarus
Nice
Group D
Switzerland
Denmark
Republic of Ireland
Georgia
Gibraltar
I like it.
Group E
Croatia
Wales
Slovakia
Hungary
Azerbaijan
Group F
Spain
Sweden
Norway
Romania
Faroe Islands
Malta
Group G
Poland
Austria
Israel
Slovenia
FYR Macedonia
Latvia
Group H
France
Iceland
Turkey
Albania
Moldova
Andorra
Group I
Belgium
Russia
Scotland
Cyprus
Kazakhstan
San Marino
Group J
Italy
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Finland
Greece
Armenia
Liechtenstein
20 teams I see!
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Futbolmetrix
2018-12-02 13:59:39 UTC
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Post by Jesper Lauridsen
The qualifiying draw. 1st & 2nd to qualify.
But then there are also the qualifiers from the NL (I'm not really sure
I understand how that works...)
Post by Jesper Lauridsen
Group A
England
Czech Republic
Bulgaria
Montenegro
Kosovo
Ingerlund and Montenegro.
Post by Jesper Lauridsen
Group B
Portugal
Ukraine
Serbia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Portugal and Serbia
Post by Jesper Lauridsen
Group C
Netherlands
Germany
Northern Ireland
Estonia
Belarus
Nice. NED and GER
Post by Jesper Lauridsen
Group D
Switzerland
Denmark
Republic of Ireland
Georgia
Gibraltar
SWI and DEN
Post by Jesper Lauridsen
Group E
Croatia
Wales
Slovakia
Hungary
Azerbaijan
CRO and SLK
Post by Jesper Lauridsen
Group F
Spain
Sweden
Norway
Romania
Faroe Islands
Malta
Nordic derby! Spain and Sweden.
Post by Jesper Lauridsen
Group G
Poland
Austria
Israel
Slovenia
FYR Macedonia
Latvia
Poland and Austria
Post by Jesper Lauridsen
Group H
France
Iceland
Turkey
Albania
Moldova
Andorra
France and Turkey
Post by Jesper Lauridsen
Group I
Belgium
Russia
Scotland
Cyprus
Kazakhstan
San Marino
Belgium and Russia
Post by Jesper Lauridsen
Group J
Italy
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Finland
Greece
Armenia
Liechtenstein
Italy should be able to not screw this up. ITA and BIH
Jesper Lauridsen
2018-12-02 17:00:21 UTC
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Post by Futbolmetrix
Post by Jesper Lauridsen
The qualifiying draw. 1st & 2nd to qualify.
But then there are also the qualifiers from the NL (I'm not really sure
I understand how that works...)
One qualifier per league. 4 group winners to play off for it. If a
group winner has qualified through the normal qualification, the play
off spot will go to the next team in line (ranked across groups). If
league A has 13 or more qualifiers, teams will be drafted in from league B.
Mark
2018-12-03 10:03:08 UTC
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Post by Jesper Lauridsen
Post by Futbolmetrix
Post by Jesper Lauridsen
The qualifiying draw. 1st & 2nd to qualify.
But then there are also the qualifiers from the NL (I'm not really sure
I understand how that works...)
One qualifier per league. 4 group winners to play off for it. If a
group winner has qualified through the normal qualification, the play
off spot will go to the next team in line (ranked across groups). If
league A has 13 or more qualifiers, teams will be drafted in from league B.
That sounds daft.

And what happens if there's 13 or more qualifiers from League B? (or is that possibility just not worth considering because European football is so predictable?)
Werner Pichler
2018-12-03 12:04:12 UTC
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Post by Mark
Post by Jesper Lauridsen
Post by Futbolmetrix
Post by Jesper Lauridsen
The qualifiying draw. 1st & 2nd to qualify.
But then there are also the qualifiers from the NL (I'm not really sure
I understand how that works...)
One qualifier per league. 4 group winners to play off for it. If a
group winner has qualified through the normal qualification, the play
off spot will go to the next team in line (ranked across groups). If
league A has 13 or more qualifiers, teams will be drafted in from league B.
That sounds daft.
It helps the little teams, you know. One out of Georgia/Macedonia/Belarus/Kosovo
will qualify for the final tournament for the first time ever.


Ciao,
Werner
MH
2018-12-08 16:06:25 UTC
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Post by Mark
Post by Jesper Lauridsen
Post by Futbolmetrix
Post by Jesper Lauridsen
The qualifiying draw. 1st & 2nd to qualify.
But then there are also the qualifiers from the NL (I'm not really sure
I understand how that works...)
One qualifier per league. 4 group winners to play off for it. If a
group winner has qualified through the normal qualification, the play
off spot will go to the next team in line (ranked across groups). If
league A has 13 or more qualifiers, teams will be drafted in from league B.
That sounds daft.
And what happens if there's 13 or more qualifiers from League B?
Then there won't be more than 7 qualifiers from league A, and there will
be playoffs involving 4 teams from league A. The league B playoff will
include at least one team from league C (but not a group winner). They
start the process of playoffs from the bottom league up.

(or is that possibility just not worth considering because European
football is so predictable?)
Mark
2018-12-03 09:58:45 UTC
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Post by Futbolmetrix
Post by Jesper Lauridsen
The qualifiying draw. 1st & 2nd to qualify.
But then there are also the qualifiers from the NL (I'm not really sure
I understand how that works...)
Post by Jesper Lauridsen
Group A
England
Czech Republic
Bulgaria
Montenegro
Kosovo
Ingerlund and Montenegro.
Czech republic and england
Post by Futbolmetrix
Post by Jesper Lauridsen
Group B
Portugal
Ukraine
Serbia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Portugal and Serbia
Agreed
Post by Futbolmetrix
Post by Jesper Lauridsen
Group C
Netherlands
Germany
Northern Ireland
Estonia
Belarus
Nice. NED and GER
Agreed
Post by Futbolmetrix
Post by Jesper Lauridsen
Group D
Switzerland
Denmark
Republic of Ireland
Georgia
Gibraltar
SWI and DEN
Agreed
Post by Futbolmetrix
Post by Jesper Lauridsen
Group E
Croatia
Wales
Slovakia
Hungary
Azerbaijan
CRO and SLK
Croatia and Wales
Post by Futbolmetrix
Post by Jesper Lauridsen
Group F
Spain
Sweden
Norway
Romania
Faroe Islands
Malta
Nordic derby! Spain and Sweden.
Agreed
Post by Futbolmetrix
Post by Jesper Lauridsen
Group G
Poland
Austria
Israel
Slovenia
FYR Macedonia
Latvia
Poland and Austria
Poland and Israel
Post by Futbolmetrix
Post by Jesper Lauridsen
Group H
France
Iceland
Turkey
Albania
Moldova
Andorra
France and Turkey
France and Iceland
Post by Futbolmetrix
Post by Jesper Lauridsen
Group I
Belgium
Russia
Scotland
Cyprus
Kazakhstan
San Marino
Belgium and Russia
Agreed
Post by Futbolmetrix
Post by Jesper Lauridsen
Group J
Italy
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Finland
Greece
Armenia
Liechtenstein
Italy should be able to not screw this up. ITA and BIH
Agreed.

Why is European football so predictable?
Werner Pichler
2018-12-03 11:16:11 UTC
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Post by Mark
Why is European football so predictable?
Last time around three pot 5 teams made it to the tournament, and three pot 1
teams failed.

On the other hand, what are the odds that World Cup 2022 will feature all of
Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, South Korea, Japan and Australia?

Ciao,
Werner
Futbolmetrix
2018-12-03 15:14:47 UTC
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Post by Werner Pichler
On the other hand, what are the odds that World Cup 2022 will feature all of
Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, South Korea, Japan and Australia?
Probably about 80%, maybe even a bit less?
If each of BRA/ARG/MEX/JAP/KOR/AUS have a 95% chance of qualifying ex ante, the probability that at least one doesn't qualify is about 25% (assuming independence, which is obviously wrong, but probably a good approximation nonetheless).

Keep in mind that Mexico was very close to elimination in 2014, and the USA, which had been almost as dominant as Mexico in CONCACAF over the past 15 years missed out in 2018. South Korea, Japan and Australia didn't have a particularly smooth ride the last time around, and Argentina needed some Messi magic on the final match day.
Werner Pichler
2018-12-03 15:24:07 UTC
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Post by Futbolmetrix
Post by Werner Pichler
On the other hand, what are the odds that World Cup 2022 will feature all of
Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, South Korea, Japan and Australia?
Probably about 80%, maybe even a bit less?
Sounds about right, but I guess that's still higher than Mark's assumption that
all Pot 1 teams will 'predictably' make it to Euro 2020?

Anyway, we can all put our sophisticated hearts where our unsophisticated mouths
are once the SophCon starts! :)


Ciao,
Werner
Jesper Lauridsen
2018-12-03 21:01:55 UTC
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Post by Mark
Why is European football so predictable?
Latest European qualification had Italy and Holland missing out. How
often do 4-time Champs, and reigning bronze winners, fail to qualify
outside Europe?
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