Discussion:
Economic forecast of the World Cup
Add Reply
Futbolmetrix
2018-06-14 15:47:18 UTC
Reply
Permalink
I wrote a little piece about one of this year's SophCon participants:

http://blogs.bu.edu/paserman/2018/06/13/economics-couldnt-predict-the-financial-crisis-but-can-it-predict-the-world-cup/

People were asking me who I would root for in the World Cup with Italy
out. I wasn't quite sure what to answer, but now I guess I'm vested in
the home team.

How do you say "Forza Russia" in Russian?
Jesper Lauridsen
2018-06-14 16:13:11 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Futbolmetrix
People were asking me who I would root for in the World Cup with Italy
out. I wasn't quite sure what to answer, but now I guess I'm vested in
the home team.
Have you tried
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/world-cup-quiz/
?

Note that "team goals" doesn't mean goals with a lengthy build up, but
rather many different goal scorers.
DK
2018-06-15 01:36:38 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Jesper Lauridsen
Post by Futbolmetrix
People were asking me who I would root for in the World Cup with Italy
out. I wasn't quite sure what to answer, but now I guess I'm vested in
the home team.
Have you tried
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/world-cup-quiz/
I got the most retarded output frp this qiuz:

"Tunisia is a great fit for you"

Right. Of all the teams in there, Tunisia.
Sven Mischkies
2018-06-15 23:11:12 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by DK
Post by Jesper Lauridsen
Post by Futbolmetrix
People were asking me who I would root for in the World Cup with Italy
out. I wasn't quite sure what to answer, but now I guess I'm vested in
the home team.
Have you tried
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/world-cup-quiz/
"Tunisia is a great fit for you"
Right. Of all the teams in there, Tunisia.
Weirdo. I got Germany, of course. ;)


Ciao,
SM
--
91st Minute in the relegation play off:
KSC 1 - 0 HSV. HSV must score or or gets relegated.
"I'll shoot" - Rafael van der Vaart to Marcelo Diaz
"Yeah! Tomorrow, my friend – tomorrow!" - Marcelo Diaz
Mark
2018-06-16 10:30:49 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Sven Mischkies
Post by DK
Post by Jesper Lauridsen
Post by Futbolmetrix
People were asking me who I would root for in the World Cup with Italy
out. I wasn't quite sure what to answer, but now I guess I'm vested in
the home team.
Have you tried
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/world-cup-quiz/
"Tunisia is a great fit for you"
Right. Of all the teams in there, Tunisia.
Weirdo. I got Germany, of course. ;)
Ciao,
SM
--
KSC 1 - 0 HSV. HSV must score or or gets relegated.
"I'll shoot" - Rafael van der Vaart to Marcelo Diaz
"Yeah! Tomorrow, my friend – tomorrow!" - Marcelo Diaz
Anders would be proud of me. I got Sweden!
Jesper Lauridsen
2018-06-25 22:28:34 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Mark
Post by Sven Mischkies
Post by DK
"Tunisia is a great fit for you"
Right. Of all the teams in there, Tunisia.
Weirdo. I got Germany, of course. ;)
Anders would be proud of me. I got Sweden!
That's very disappointing. I would have expected Peru.
Real Mardin
2018-06-16 22:45:54 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Futbolmetrix
http://blogs.bu.edu/paserman/2018/06/13/economics-couldnt-predict-the-financial-crisis-but-can-it-predict-the-world-cup/
People were asking me who I would root for in the World Cup with Italy
out. I wasn't quite sure what to answer, but now I guess I'm vested in
the home team.
How do you say "Forza Russia" in Russian?
Nice article, well presented.

You probably already know but in the book Soccernomics they do a similar model but also factor in how many competitive matches a country has played and (if I recall correctly) how many registered players the country has.


RM
Abubakr
2018-06-16 22:53:01 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Good thing then for Russia that India, China and the USA failed to qualify otherwise the hosts would have had no chance.
Futbolmetrix
2018-06-17 06:40:43 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Abubakr
Good thing then for Russia that India, China and the USA failed to qualify otherwise the hosts would have had no chance.
The USA, yes: had they been in the WC, they would have been the second
highest ranked team in the Econ model, behind Brazil (Russia gets the
highest probability of winning because of home field advantage plus the
easy draw they were handed).

China and India: not even close. Remember that the model takes
population *and* GDP per capita into account. Plus, it has a pretty
heavy AFC discount. China is ranked similarly to Portugal, India to Croatia.

If I took out the confederation effects (model Econ0 in the SophCon),
the overall favorites would be Japan.
Futbolmetrix
2018-06-17 06:34:06 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Real Mardin
Nice article, well presented.
You probably already know but in the book Soccernomics they do a similar model
but also factor in how many competitive matches a country has played and
(if I recall correctly) how many registered players the country has.
Yes, it's not a particularly original thought, to be sure. I had posted
about it in RSS in 2008.

https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.sport.soccer/GDP$20per$20capita/rec.sport.soccer/HHez9ss0-nw/_YMLH38d5BYJ

and I'm pretty sure that Daniel Finkelstein from the London Times' Fink
Tank had written up something on that based on my analysis a few years
before that, but I can't find that column now.

Soccernomics's first edition came out in 2009.
milivella
2018-11-20 00:41:31 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Futbolmetrix
Post by Real Mardin
Nice article, well presented.
You probably already know but in the book Soccernomics they do a
similar model but also factor in how many competitive matches a
country has played and (if I recall correctly) how many registered
players the country has.
Yes, it's not a particularly original thought, to be sure. I had posted
about it in RSS in 2008.
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.sport.soccer/GDP$20per$20capita/rec.sport.soccer/HHez9ss0-nw/_YMLH38d5BYJ
and I'm pretty sure that Daniel Finkelstein from the London Times' Fink
Tank had written up something on that based on my analysis a few years
before that, but I can't find that column now.
Soccernomics's first edition came out in 2009.
https://www.google.com/search?tbs=cdr%3A1%2Ccd_max%3A13%2F4%2F2008&q=football+gdp+population
gives you
2002
https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/7146321.pdf
"In particular, inverted U-shape relationships are identified with
respect to temperature and per-capita wealth. We also find a significant
interaction between Latin cultural origin and population size,
while both variables are individually insignificant."

And then, developing from there
2004
http://ww.w.crema-research.ch/papers/2004-19.pdf

Also, references to even older similar studies about Olympics.

--
Cheers
milivella

Loading...