Discussion:
(R/T) Brasileirão 2018 - one round to go...
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Jesus Petry
2018-11-26 13:55:27 UTC
Permalink
... but congratulations to Palmeiras already on their deserved title, sixth in the Campeonato Brasileiro era, plus two Roberto Gomes Pedrosa titles and two old Taças Brasil, making it ten. They are the first club to reach that mark.
They've clinched the title with a 0-1 away win against Vasco da Gama.

Pts Pld Wins CLINCHED/Current
1 Palmeiras 77 37 22 CHAMPIONS
2 Flamengo 72 37 21 LIBERTADORES GROUP
3 Internacional 68 37 19 LIBERTADORES GROUP
4 Grêmio 63 37 17 LIBERTADORES Group
5 São Paulo 62 36 16 LIBERTADORES Prelim
6 Atlético-MG 56 37 16 Libertadores Prelim
7 Atlético-PR 54 37 15 Sudamericana
8 Cruzeiro 52 37 14 LIBERTADORES (Cup winners)
9 Santos 50 37 13 SUDAMERICANA
10 Botafogo 48 36 12 SUDAMERICANA
11 Bahia 47 37 12 SUDAMERICANA
12 Corinthians 44 37 11 Sudamericana
13 Ceará 43 37 10 Sudamericana
14 Fluminense 42 37 11
15 Vasco da Gama 42 37 10
16 Chapecoense 41 37 10
17 América 40 37 10 Relegation
18 Sport Recife 38 36 10 Relegation
19 Vitória 37 37 9 RELEGATED
20 Paraná 22 36 4 RELEGATED

1st, 2nd and 3rd place are clinched, but several teams have plenty to play for in the last round.

Tonight, São Paulo host Sport in a critical match for a Libertadores group stage spot and for relegation.

Next Sunday, the big matches are:

Atlético-MG - Botafogo
Flamengo - Atlético-PR
The two Atléticos fight for the last Libertadores spot.

Ceará - Vasco da Gama
Fluminense - América
Direct relegation battles. Although in Ceará and Vasco's case, a draw might suit both (if Sport don't win tonight).

Chapecoense - São Paulo
Grêmio - Corinthians
São Paulo and Grêmio fight for the last Libertadores group stage spot, with Chape thrown in the mix in their quest to avoid their first relegation.

Sport Recife - Santos
Sport can still escape relegation even if they lose tonight.

Tchau!
Jesus Petry
Jesus Petry
2018-11-26 14:08:37 UTC
Permalink
Post by Jesus Petry
Ceará - Vasco da Gama
Fluminense - América
Direct relegation battles. Although in Ceará and Vasco's case, a draw might suit both (if Sport don't win tonight).
In fact, if Sport don't win tonight, Ceará are actually safe, because América and Fluminense can't overtake them both.

Tchau!
Jesus Petry
Jesus Petry
2018-11-27 13:29:59 UTC
Permalink
After last night (SP 0-0 Sport, Botafogo 2-1 Paraná):

Pts Pld Wins CLINCHED/Current
1 Palmeiras 77 37 22 CHAMPIONS
2 Flamengo 72 37 21 LIBERTADORES GROUP
3 Internacional 68 37 19 LIBERTADORES GROUP
4 Grêmio 63 37 17 LIBERTADORES Group
5 São Paulo 63 37 16 LIBERTADORES Prelim
6 Atlético-MG 56 37 16 Libertadores Prelim
7 Atlético-PR 54 37 15 Sudamericana
8 Cruzeiro 52 37 14 LIBERTADORES (Cup winners)
9 Botafogo 51 37 13 SUDAMERICANA
10 Santos 50 37 13 SUDAMERICANA
11 Bahia 47 37 12 SUDAMERICANA
12 Corinthians 44 37 11 Sudamericana
13 Ceará 43 37 10 Sudamericana
14 Fluminense 42 37 11
15 Vasco da Gama 42 37 10
16 Chapecoense 41 37 10
17 América 40 37 10 Relegation
18 Sport Recife 39 37 10 Relegation
19 Vitória 37 37 9 RELEGATED
20 Paraná 22 37 4 RELEGATED

Ceará are safe.

Atlético-PR have a better GD than Atlético-MG, so they just need to win with their namesakes not winning to overtake them.

São Paulo need a better result than Grêmio, in points, to overtake them for spot #4.

And the relegation battle:

Fluminense will be saved with a home draw to América; or if Vasco lose, or if Chape don't win. This provided, of course, that Sport don't thrash Santos with a ridiculous score (current GDs: Flu -15, Sport -23)

Vasco will be safe with a draw too, but away to Ceará; or if two of Chape, América and Sport fail to win.

Chapecoense will be safe with a win (SP at home); if they draw, they need both América and Sport not to win (or one of them not winning plus Vasco losing by 11+ goals); if they lose, they need América to lose and Sport not to win.

América will also be safe with a win (away to Flu); if they draw, they need Chape to lose and Sport not to win; losing equals relegation.

Sport need to win to avoid relegation (Santos at home), and also hope two of these things happen: Vasco lose, Chape don't win, América don't win (or win by a lot, like 7+ goals).

Tchau!
Jesus Petry
Jesper Lauridsen
2018-11-27 20:59:20 UTC
Permalink
Post by Jesus Petry
12 Corinthians 44 37 11 Sudamericana
13 Ceará 43 37 10 Sudamericana
14 Fluminense 42 37 11
15 Vasco da Gama 42 37 10
16 Chapecoense 41 37 10
17 América 40 37 10 Relegation
18 Sport Recife 39 37 10 Relegation
19 Vitória 37 37 9 RELEGATED
20 Paraná 22 37 4 RELEGATED
You have to feel for those 3 teams that will end up neither relegated
nor playing internationally.
Jesus Petry
2018-12-03 13:17:07 UTC
Permalink
And it's over.

Pts Pld W D L Diff GF-GA
1 Palmeiras 80 38 23 11 4 +38 64-26 CHAMPIONS
2 Flamengo 72 38 21 9 8 +30 59-29 LIB GROUP
3 Internacional 69 38 19 12 7 +22 51-29 LIB GROUP
4 Grêmio 66 38 18 12 8 +21 48-27 LIB GROUP
5 São Paulo 63 38 16 15 7 +12 46-34 LIB PRELM
6 Atlético-MG 59 38 17 8 13 +13 56-43 LIB PRELM
7 Atlético-PR 57 38 16 9 13 +17 54-37 SUDAMERIC
8 Cruzeiro 53 38 14 11 13 0 34-34 LIB (Cup)
9 Botafogo 51 38 13 12 13 -8 38-46 SUDAMERIC
10 Santos 50 38 13 11 14 +6 46-40 SUDAMERIC
11 Bahia 48 38 12 12 14 -2 39-41 SUDAMERIC
12 Fluminense 45 38 12 9 17 -14 32-46 SUDAMERIC
13 Corinthians 44 38 11 11 16 -1 34-35 SUDAMERIC
14 Chapecoense 44 38 11 11 16 -16 34-50
15 Ceará 44 38 10 14 14 -6 32-38
16 Vasco da Gama 43 38 10 13 15 -7 41-48
17 Sport Recife 42 38 11 9 18 -22 35-57 RELEGATED
18 América 40 38 10 10 18 -17 30-47 RELEGATED
19 Vitória 37 38 9 10 19 -27 36-63 RELEGATED
20 Paraná 23 38 4 11 23 -39 18-57 RELEGATED

If Atlético-PR win the Copa Sudamericana finals against Junior Barranquilla (COL), they'll get a Libertadores spot, opening up a Sudamericana spot for Chapecoense.

Up from Série B are Fortaleza (CE), Avaí (SC), CSA (AL) - after a long, long time! - and Goiás (GO).

Tchau!
Jesus Petry
Lleo
2018-12-03 18:38:19 UTC
Permalink
Post by Jesus Petry
And it's over.
Pts Pld W D L Diff GF-GA
1 Palmeiras 80 38 23 11 4 +38 64-26 CHAMPIONS
Undisputable champions, their 13th national trophy overall (counting all
cups and leagues, whichever way one distributes them :-))
Post by Jesus Petry
2 Flamengo 72 38 21 9 8 +30 59-29 LIB GROUP
This is the best ever 2nd place finish since it became a 20-team round
robin, in 2006. With that points total, they'd also be champions in 2010,
2011 and 2017 and comfortably best their own 2009 title (67 points).
Nice to see that it wasn't enough, but season after season they've been
challenging in one front or another.
Post by Jesus Petry
3 Internacional 69 38 19 12 7 +22 51-29 LIB GROUP
4 Grêmio 66 38 18 12 8 +21 48-27 LIB GROUP
Strong showing by the Porto Alegre duo, especially Inter, doing so well
right after promotion.
Post by Jesus Petry
5 São Paulo 63 38 16 15 7 +12 46-34 LIB PRELM
6 Atlético-MG 59 38 17 8 13 +13 56-43 LIB PRELM
7 Atlético-PR 57 38 16 9 13 +17 54-37 SUDAMERIC
8 Cruzeiro 53 38 14 11 13 0 34-34 LIB (Cup)
9 Botafogo 51 38 13 12 13 -8 38-46 SUDAMERIC
10 Santos 50 38 13 11 14 +6 46-40 SUDAMERIC
11 Bahia 48 38 12 12 14 -2 39-41 SUDAMERIC
I wish Bahia had better luck in Copa Sudamericana, it would be cool to
see a Nordestino team making it deep in an international competition.
Well, they get another shot at it next season.
Post by Jesus Petry
12 Fluminense 45 38 12 9 17 -14 32-46 SUDAMERIC
They spent the entire month of November without scoring a goal, an
802 minutes long drought. Their losses add up to almost an entire
turno. Few times I've seen a team making such an effort to go down
and, in their particular case, pay their debt with Serie B already.

Not only they failed, they still get to play Copa Sudamericana
in 2019. Just goes to highlight that old point about there being
way too many spots for Brasil in international competition.
Post by Jesus Petry
13 Corinthians 44 38 11 11 16 -1 34-35 SUDAMERIC
Poor showing by the outgoing champions, below the usual relegation
threshold (thought to be 45 points).
Post by Jesus Petry
14 Chapecoense 44 38 11 11 16 -16 34-50
Despite the scare that lasted until Round 38, they still remain
one of the five teams that were never relegated from the Brasilian
top division (others being Cruzeiro, Flamengo, São Paulo and Santos).
And they may even get a Sudamericana spot as a spinoff of the result
of this season's final.
Post by Jesus Petry
15 Ceará 44 38 10 14 14 -6 32-38
Ceará started the championship very poorly, and at some point it seemed
impossible that they'd avoid the drop. They pulled an impressive comeback
under Lisca and could even dream with a Copa Sudamericana spot for 2019.
Wasn't to be, but they should keep up the momentum.
Post by Jesus Petry
16 Vasco da Gama 43 38 10 13 15 -7 41-48
Yet another nightmarish season. We were one goal away from yet another
relegation. A very tense final matchday. A draw was enough, but holding
on to that draw was tough, as other results began to go against us.
Thankfully, this time things ended... not exactly "well", but could be
a lot worse.

But as long-time trends go, there are some awfully damning numbers that,
18 seasons into the 21st century, illustrate what really is Eurico Miranda's
legacy: only 5 top-10 finishes in Serie A (2006, 2007, 2011, 2012, 2017);
1 cup win (2011); 3 meager state league titles (2003, 2015, 2016);
3 relegations (2008, 2013, 2015). History is becoming just that... history.
Post by Jesus Petry
17 Sport Recife 42 38 11 9 18 -22 35-57 RELEGATED
18 América 40 38 10 10 18 -17 30-47 RELEGATED
19 Vitória 37 38 9 10 19 -27 36-63 RELEGATED
20 Paraná 23 38 4 11 23 -39 18-57 RELEGATED
And off to the B with these. Too bad for Sport and Vitória, I'd like to see
at least one of them staying though of course not at our expense. América,
at some point, seemed they'd finally pull off two consecutive Serie A
participations after such a long time, but it wasn't to be. And Paraná...
such a train wreck of a return to the top flight after some 10+ years away
from it. Only six points better than América-RN 2007 or Náutico 2014.
Post by Jesus Petry
If Atlético-PR win the Copa Sudamericana finals against Junior
Barranquilla (COL), they'll get a Libertadores spot, opening up a
Sudamericana spot for Chapecoense.
Well, go Tiburones!
Post by Jesus Petry
Up from Série B are Fortaleza (CE), Avaí (SC), CSA (AL) - after a long, long
time! - and Goiás (GO).
Great to see CSA going up. Must've stung for CRB fans, though. Not only due to
the rivalry, but the fact that CSA had just been promoted to Serie B, while
CRB are there for like a million years trying and nothing yields.

And a great run for Fortaleza too, who had also just been promoted to Serie B
after eight years in the third division (four of these falling short in the QF,
right at the promotion cut). First Serie B title by a Nordestino club since
Sport 1990. Rogerio Ceni was acclaimed by Fortaleza fans at the final matchday.
With Ceará's survival, we get the cearense derby in the national top division
for the first time since 1993.

Here are the complete divisional movements:

B to A: Fortaleza, Avaí, CSA, Goiás
A to B: Sport, América-MG, Vitória, Paraná

C to B: Operário Ferroviário, Cuiabá, Botafogo-SP, Bragantino
B to C: Paysandu, Sampaio Corrêa, Juventude, Boa Esporte

D to C: Treze, Ferroviário-CE, São José-RS, Imperatriz
C to D: Juazeirense, Salgueiro, Tupi, Joinville

Geographical spread:

The top three divisions, in 2019, will span over 18 states and 38 cities.
Serie A will have teams from 12 cities in 10 states, Serie B will happen
in 17 cities over 10 states and Serie C will bring teams from 18 cities in
13 states.

Palmarés:

Counting Palmeiras's title and Cruzeiro's cup win (the Palestra Italia season? :-)),
here's how the distribution of national titles now looks like, adopting CBF's
criteria:
("leagues" = Campeonato Brasileiro + Taça Brasil + Torneio RGP, "cups" = Copa do Brasil)

1 Palmeiras 13 (10 leagues, 3 cups)
2 Corinthians 10 (7 leagues, 3 cups)
Cruzeiro 10 (4 leagues, 6 cups)
4 Santos 9 (8 leagues, 1 cup)
5 Flamengo 8 (5 leagues, 3 cups)
6 Grêmio 7 (2 leagues, 5 cups)
7 São Paulo 6 (6 leagues)
8 Fluminense 5 (4 leagues, 1 cup)
Vasco da Gama 5 (4 leagues, 1 cup)
10 Internacional 4 (3 leagues, 1 cup)
11 Bahia 2 (2 leagues)
Botafogo 2 (2 leagues)
Atlético-MG 2 (1 league, 1 cup)
Sport Recife 2 (1 league, 1 cup)
15 Atlético-PR 1 (1 league)
Coritiba 1 (1 league)
Guarani 1 (1 league)
Criciúma 1 (1 cup)
Juventude 1 (1 cup)
Paulista 1 (1 cup)
Santo André 1 (1 cup)

Distribution by city:

1 São Paulo 29 (3 clubs, 23 leagues, 6 cups)
2 Rio de Janeiro 20 (4 clubs, 15 leagues, 5 cups)
3 Belo Horizonte 12 (2 clubs, 5 leagues, 7 cups)
4 Porto Alegre 11 (2 clubs, 5 leagues, 6 cups)
5 Santos 9 (1 club, 8 leagues, 1 cup)
6 Salvador 2 (1 club, 2 leagues)
Recife 2 (1 club, 1 league, 1 cup)
Curitiba 2 (2 clubs, 2 leagues)
9 Campinas 1 (1 club, 1 league)
Santo André 1 (1 club, 1 cup)
Jundiaí 1 (1 club, 1 cup)
Caxias do Sul 1 (1 club, 1 cup)
Criciúma 1 (1 club, 1 cup)

Distribution by state:

1 São Paulo 41 (7 clubs, 32 leagues, 9 cups)
2 Rio de Janeiro 20 (4 clubs, 15 leagues, 5 cups)
3 Minas Gerais 12 (2 clubs, 5 leagues, 7 cups)
Rio Grande do Sul 12 (3 clubs, 5 leagues, 7 cups)
5 Bahia 2 (1 club, 2 leagues)
Paraná 2 (2 clubs, 2 leagues)
Pernambuco 2 (1 club, 1 league, 1 cup)
8 Santa Catarina 1 (1 club, 1 cup)

And that's it. The 2019 season begins on January 20th.


--
Lléo
Bruce Scott
2018-12-05 11:42:13 UTC
Permalink
On 2018-12-03, Lleo <***@lycos.com> wrote:
[...]
Post by Lleo
Counting Palmeiras's title and Cruzeiro's cup win (the Palestra Italia season? :-)),
here's how the distribution of national titles now looks like, adopting CBF's
("leagues" = Campeonato Brasileiro + Ta??a Brasil + Torneio RGP,
"cups" = Copa do Brasil)
1 Palmeiras 13 (10 leagues, 3 cups)
2 Corinthians 10 (7 leagues, 3 cups)
Cruzeiro 10 (4 leagues, 6 cups)
4 Santos 9 (8 leagues, 1 cup)
5 Flamengo 8 (5 leagues, 3 cups)
6 Gr??mio 7 (2 leagues, 5 cups)
7 S??o Paulo 6 (6 leagues)
8 Fluminense 5 (4 leagues, 1 cup)
Vasco da Gama 5 (4 leagues, 1 cup)
10 Internacional 4 (3 leagues, 1 cup)
[...]

That's a nice spread actually. I guess it helps to have your main region
include several big teams. Germany has become a bit skewed in the last decades,
Portugal, Spain, Italy were always so.
--
ciao, Bruce
Werner Pichler
2019-03-27 15:02:15 UTC
Permalink
Post by Lleo
Post by Jesus Petry
And it's over.
B to A: Fortaleza, Avaí, CSA, Goiás
A to B: Sport, América-MG, Vitória, Paraná
C to B: Operário Ferroviário, Cuiabá, Botafogo-SP, Bragantino
Red Bull, quite likely despairing at the prospect of ever qualifying their
RB Brasil team out of Série D, have announced a merger with Bragantino and
stated their aim to take newly minted RB Bragantino to Série A.

Ciao,
Werner
Lleo
2019-03-28 14:36:33 UTC
Permalink
Post by Werner Pichler
Post by Lleo
Post by Jesus Petry
And it's over.
B to A: Fortaleza, Avaí, CSA, Goiás
A to B: Sport, América-MG, Vitória, Paraná
C to B: Operário Ferroviário, Cuiabá, Botafogo-SP, Bragantino
Red Bull, quite likely despairing at the prospect of ever qualifying their
RB Brasil team out of Série D, have announced a merger with Bragantino and
stated their aim to take newly minted RB Bragantino to Série A.
In fact, I think they even failed to qualify to Serie D this season, which means
that their goal of reaching Serie A as an "own club" (I somehow mean one that
started at the bottom and worked its way up, as was their case so far) had been
postponed to 2023 at the earliest.

I don't know what to think of this, or, more importantly, what Bragantino fans
think about it. I read that, for this season, they'll keep the name "Clube
Atlético Bragantino" and its colours, and the prospects are that Red Bull will
invest not only in the team, but in the stadium and facilities too (either
building a new ground or refurbishing the current one). It is certainly the
kind of investment they couldn't reasonably expect to come thumbling down
from the skies anytime soon.

Maybe that'll "ease" the transition when, in 2020, they become RB Bragantino?
(and likely adopt Red Bull's white and red colours)

Obviously the main benefit of the change, for Red Bull, is the divisional
"leapfrogging", now they are only one season away from the top level, but
I think this move made sense for them also on another level.

See, they were based in Campinas, a territory already taken by two very
traditional teams, Guarani and Ponte Preta. Both sides had their golden
era a while ago, with players in Brasilian WC squads, Guarani was Brasilian
champion once while Ponte is one of the oldest football clubs around here
(and not to mention that the city of São Paulo, with its Iron Trio, is just
around the corner from Campinas).

It was always going to be very hard for Red Bull to break into the hearts of
the city supporters, with competition such as this around. Even with both
Guarani and Ponte struggling, the prospects are that they'd be only the city's
third team at least for a few generations, I wouldn't think Red Bull wants to
wait that kind of time.

This fact that shows in some of their attendances this season: five of their
seven home games had attendance under 500, the other two were against Palmeiras
and Santos - att 10k and 8k respectively, but you can bet there were a lot more
visitors than home supporters in those.

In this context, joining forces with Bragantino makes more "sense" as they
aren't competing against a traditional, established local team. Also, while
Bragança Paulista is much smaller than Campinas (1/6th of population I think),
it is right next door to it as well, so whatever fans they have made there
are not all that distant now, who knows, they might even get to keep them.

But again, I have no idea how do Bragantino fans feel about it. I guess it should
be a mixed reaction, conditional to whether this thing is seen as a takeover or
a necessary measure for the continuity of the club. Bragantino isn't exactly a
financial powerhouse either, I would think they struggle as much as the average
small team in Brasil does. And to this one adds the weight of the perspective of
benefits that were far away from their horizons for the foreseeable future.


--
Lléo
Werner Pichler
2019-03-29 19:00:56 UTC
Permalink
Post by Lleo
Post by Werner Pichler
Post by Lleo
Post by Jesus Petry
And it's over.
B to A: Fortaleza, Avaí, CSA, Goiás
A to B: Sport, América-MG, Vitória, Paraná
C to B: Operário Ferroviário, Cuiabá, Botafogo-SP, Bragantino
Red Bull, quite likely despairing at the prospect of ever qualifying
their RB Brasil team out of Série D, have announced a merger with
Bragantino and stated their aim to take newly minted RB Bragantino to
Série A.
In fact, I think they even failed to qualify to Serie D this season, which
means that their goal of reaching Serie A as an "own club" (I somehow mean
one that started at the bottom and worked its way up, as was their case so
far) had been postponed to 2023 at the earliest.
I don't know what to think of this, or, more importantly, what Bragantino
fan think about it. I read that, for this season, they'll keep the name
"Clube Atlético Bragantino" and its colours, and the prospects are that
Red Bull will invest not only in the team, but in the stadium and
facilities too (either building a new ground or refurbishing the current
one). It is certainly the kind of investment they couldn't reasonably
expect to come thumbling down from the skies anytime soon.
Maybe that'll "ease" the transition when, in 2020, they become RB
Bragantino? (and likely adopt Red Bull's white and red colours)
Obviously the main benefit of the change, for Red Bull, is the divisional
"leapfrogging", now they are only one season away from the top level, but
I think this move made sense for them also on another level.
See, they were based in Campinas, a territory already taken by two very
traditional teams, Guarani and Ponte Preta. Both sides had their golden
era a while ago, with players in Brasilian WC squads, Guarani was
Brasilian champion once while Ponte is one of the oldest football clubs
around here (and not to mention that the city of São Paulo, with its Iron
Trio, is just around the corner from Campinas).
It was always going to be very hard for Red Bull to break into the hearts
of the city supporters, with competition such as this around. Even with
both Guarani and Ponte struggling, the prospects are that they'd be only
the city's third team at least for a few generations, I wouldn't think Red
Bull wants to wait that kind of time.
This fact that shows in some of their attendances this season: five of
their seven home games had attendance under 500, the other two were
against Palmeiras and Santos - att 10k and 8k respectively, but you can
bet there were a lot more visitors than home supporters in those.
In this context, joining forces with Bragantino makes more "sense" as they
aren't competing against a traditional, established local team. Also,
while Bragança Paulista is much smaller than Campinas (1/6th of population
I think), it is right next door to it as well, so whatever fans they have
made there are not all that distant now, who knows, they might even get to
keep them.
But again, I have no idea how do Bragantino fans feel about it. I guess it
should be a mixed reaction, conditional to whether this thing is seen as a
takeover or a necessary measure for the continuity of the club. Bragantino
isn't exactly a financial powerhouse either, I would think they struggle
as much as the average small team in Brasil does. And to this one adds the
weight of the perspective of benefits that were far away from their
horizons for the foreseeable future.
Thanks, that was the first-hand info I was looking for.

So far I don't think the RB Brasil franchise can be considered a success -
they don't develop any players for the other RB teams, there were just
two players that ever made it into the Austrian Bundesliga (with other
teams than Salzburg - Felipe Pires, now back home with Palmeiras and Lucas
Venuto, now with the Whitecaps), and they don't seem to have sold anybody to
anywhere else either. I'm not sure what their purpose was so far.


Ciao,
Werner

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