Unsophisticated Prediction Tiers Season 59 organizational thread

[Futbolmetrix]

We currently have 9 teams, but we are optimistic that we can
brib...erm..convince Lleo UPTFC to return to the league. If Lleo
returns, I can see the following options:

a) Two tiers of 5 teams, 10 matchdays (including inter-tier matches so
that no team is ever idle). To avoid controversy, the tiers would be:
Tier 1: The Doctor, Futbolmetrix, milivella, Werner Pichler, MH
Tier 2: Jesper Lauridsen, Mark, Jesus Petry, Blueshirt, Lleo


b) Three tiers of 4 teams, 6 matchdays, but we must include two bots or
B teams
Tier 1: The Doctor, Futbolmetrix, milivella, Werner Pichler
Tier 2: MH, Jesper Lauridsen, Mark, Jesus Petry
Tier 3: Blueshirt, Lleo, Bot 1 (Homer?), Bot 2 (Randy/Lassie/Aggie)

c) Other options?

Of course, the picture changes if others also want to join.

[The Doctor]

Post by Futbolmetrix
We currently have 9 teams, but we are optimistic that we can
brib...erm..convince Lleo UPTFC to return to the league. If Lleo
a) Two tiers of 5 teams, 10 matchdays (including inter-tier matches so
Tier 1: The Doctor, Futbolmetrix, milivella, Werner Pichler, MH
Tier 2: Jesper Lauridsen, Mark, Jesus Petry, Blueshirt, Lleo
b) Three tiers of 4 teams, 6 matchdays, but we must include two bots or
B teams
Tier 1: The Doctor, Futbolmetrix, milivella, Werner Pichler
Tier 2: MH, Jesper Lauridsen, Mark, Jesus Petry
Tier 3: Blueshirt, Lleo, Bot 1 (Homer?), Bot 2 (Randy/Lassie/Aggie)
c) Other options?
Of course, the picture changes if others also want to join.

No bots please.

[milivella]

Post by Futbolmetrix
We currently have 9 teams, but we are optimistic that we can
brib...erm..convince Lleo UPTFC to return to the  league. If Lleo
a) Two tiers of 5 teams, 10 matchdays (including inter-tier matches so
Tier 1: The Doctor, Futbolmetrix, milivella, Werner Pichler, MH
Tier 2: Jesper Lauridsen, Mark, Jesus Petry, Blueshirt, Lleo

How many promotions/relegations?

In any case, I like it, but I'm afraid that verdicts could be official
in less than ten matchdays.

Post by Futbolmetrix
b) Three tiers of 4 teams, 6 matchdays, but we must include two bots or
B teams
Tier 1: The Doctor, Futbolmetrix, milivella, Werner Pichler
Tier 2: MH, Jesper Lauridsen, Mark, Jesus Petry
Tier 3: Blueshirt, Lleo, Bot 1 (Homer?), Bot 2 (Randy/Lassie/Aggie)

That would be the "official" solution under the rules I applied, but it
would not be a good way to make Blueshirt and Lleo like the game... :)

Post by Futbolmetrix
c) Other options?

Three tiers of respectively 3, 3, 4 people (Lleo is added to the bottom
tier, nothing else changes). But what about Tier 1 and 2 matchdays? Can
we have inter-tier matches?

[Futbolmetrix]

Post by milivella

Post by Futbolmetrix
We currently have 9 teams, but we are optimistic that we can
brib...erm..convince Lleo UPTFC to return to the  league. If Lleo
a) Two tiers of 5 teams, 10 matchdays (including inter-tier matches so
Tier 1: The Doctor, Futbolmetrix, milivella, Werner Pichler, MH
Tier 2: Jesper Lauridsen, Mark, Jesus Petry, Blueshirt, Lleo

How many promotions/relegations?

We could do one direct promotion/relegation, and a second spot to be
determined by a playoff between 4th place Tier 1 and 2nd place Tier 2.

Post by milivella
In any case, I like it, but I'm afraid that verdicts could be official
in less than ten matchdays.

Yes, 10 matchdays is a bit long, and the snappy nature of UPT gets lost
a bit. Hmmm...will I have to admit that milivella raises some valid
points?

Post by milivella

Post by Futbolmetrix
b) Three tiers of 4 teams, 6 matchdays, but we must include two bots or
B teams
Tier 1: The Doctor, Futbolmetrix, milivella, Werner Pichler
Tier 2: MH, Jesper Lauridsen, Mark, Jesus Petry
Tier 3: Blueshirt, Lleo, Bot 1 (Homer?), Bot 2 (Randy/Lassie/Aggie)

That would be the "official" solution under the rules I applied, but it
would not be a good way to make Blueshirt and Lleo like the game... :)

You could have a play-in between Mark, Jesus, Blueshirt and lleo to
determine who ends up in the bot tier...

Post by milivella

Post by Futbolmetrix
c) Other options?

Three tiers of respectively 3, 3, 4 people (Lleo is added to the bottom
tier, nothing else changes). But what about Tier 1 and 2 matchdays? Can
we have inter-tier matches?

I think that could work. Each team in Tiers 1-2 plays teams from its own
tier twice (home and away), plus 2 teams from the other tier. And no
bots (even though it looks as if some people miss Homer and Lassie)

Post by milivella
--
Cheers
milivella

[Lléo]

Post by Futbolmetrix
We currently have 9 teams, but we are optimistic that we can
brib...erm..convince Lleo UPTFC to return to the  league. If Lleo

I'd like to join again. Your brib... I mean arguments were persuasive
and the cup was fun too! Plus, 30+ seasons (in fact 32 I think?) of
non-league are enough :-)


Best regards,

Lléo

[Mark]

I think 2 divisions of 5 is best. 3 teams in a division is too few. More
than 25% of teams in each division getting promoted or relegated is too
many too. (And so is more than 20%.)

I think we should abolish the inter-tier matches too. I can't see the
point of them.

I'd also like to officially propose that any changes made to the rules
or the structure of the League be made known in advance, before the
season starts, in future, so teams know what they're playing for at the
beginning of the season and don't end up getting relegated after they've
avoided it on the pitch or whatever.

[Blueshirt]

Post by Mark
I think 2 divisions of 5 is best. 3 teams in a division is too
few. More than 25% of teams in each division getting promoted
or relegated is too many too. (And so is more than 20%.)

Two divisions of five sounds okay to me... although if we could
get another two people to join in there would be no need for
bots either.

There are a couple of people posting here that are not involved,
what sort of bribe do we have to offer them to join?

Post by Mark
I'd also like to officially propose that any changes made to
the rules or the structure of the League be made known in
advance, before the season starts, in future, so teams know
what they're playing for at the beginning of the season and
don't end up getting relegated after they've avoided it on the
pitch or whatever.

No, I propose that rule changes can be made at any time... as
long as they give me some sort of an advantage.

I'm a newbie, I need the help!

[Futbolmetrix]

On Thu, 25 Jul 2024 13:50:13 +0000, Mark wrote:

Aggregating heterogeneous preferences is difficult...

Post by Mark
I think 2 divisions of 5 is best. 3 teams in a division is too few. More
than 25% of teams in each division getting promoted or relegated is too
many too. (And so is more than 20%.)

The problem with 5 teams is that you end up having a 10-matchday season,
which is almost double the length of current UPT. As milivella correctly
pointed out, you may end up having too many dead rubber matches towards
the end of the season.

Post by Mark
I think we should abolish the inter-tier matches too. I can't see the
point of them.

I would rather keep everyone playing all the time rather than have byes.
With odd number of teams in a tier, that's inevitable.

Post by Mark
I'd also like to officially propose that any changes made to the rules
or the structure of the League be made known in advance, before the
season starts, in future, so teams know what they're playing for at the
beginning of the season and don't end up getting relegated after they've
avoided it on the pitch or whatever.

But that would mean that any new participant would have to wait a full
season before joining UPT. That's a long time. I would rather keep the
flexibility to add new players that we have now.

[Mark]

Post by Futbolmetrix
Aggregating heterogeneous preferences is difficult...

Post by Mark
I think 2 divisions of 5 is best. 3 teams in a division is too few. More
than 25% of teams in each division getting promoted or relegated is too
many too. (And so is more than 20%.)

The problem with 5 teams is that you end up having a 10-matchday season,
which is almost double the length of current UPT. As milivella correctly
pointed out, you may end up having too many dead rubber matches towards
the end of the season.

I don't think either of them are major problems.

Post by Futbolmetrix

Post by Mark
I think we should abolish the inter-tier matches too. I can't see the
point of them.

I would rather keep everyone playing all the time rather than have byes.
With odd number of teams in a tier, that's inevitable.

I don't think anyone would mind not playing every week. I get the
impression some people are busy anyway and would appreciate having some
weeks off.

Post by Futbolmetrix

Post by Mark
I'd also like to officially propose that any changes made to the rules
or the structure of the League be made known in advance, before the
season starts, in future, so teams know what they're playing for at the
beginning of the season and don't end up getting relegated after they've
avoided it on the pitch or whatever.

But that would mean that any new participant would have to wait a full
season before joining UPT. That's a long time. I would rather keep the
flexibility to add new players that we have now.

Adding 1 team to the bottom tier wouldn't be a problem. Major changes
like the number of teams getting promoted/relegated, or the number of
teams in all divisions, or changing the tie-breaker from goal difference
to head to head or something, I think we should have at least 1 year's
notice of those sort of changes.

[Futbolmetrix]

Post by Mark

Post by Futbolmetrix
The problem with 5 teams is that you end up having a 10-matchday season,
which is almost double the length of current UPT. As milivella correctly
pointed out, you may end up having too many dead rubber matches towards
the end of the season.

I don't think either of them are major problems.

You don't, but other people do.

Post by Mark

Post by Futbolmetrix

Post by Mark
I think we should abolish the inter-tier matches too. I can't see the
point of them.

I would rather keep everyone playing all the time rather than have byes.
With odd number of teams in a tier, that's inevitable.

I don't think anyone would mind not playing every week. I get the
impression some people are busy anyway and would appreciate having some
weeks off.

"I don't think anyone would mind" = "I wouldn't mind"

Post by Mark

Post by Futbolmetrix

Post by Mark
I'd also like to officially propose that any changes made to the rules
or the structure of the League be made known in advance, before the
season starts, in future, so teams know what they're playing for at the
beginning of the season and don't end up getting relegated after they've
avoided it on the pitch or whatever.

But that would mean that any new participant would have to wait a full
season before joining UPT. That's a long time. I would rather keep the
flexibility to add new players that we have now.

Adding 1 team to the bottom tier wouldn't be a problem. Major changes
like the number of teams getting promoted/relegated, or the number of
teams in all divisions, or changing the tie-breaker from goal difference
to head to head or something, I think we should have at least 1 year's
notice of those sort of changes.

Sounds like you're OK then with the 3-3-4 format. Only one team gets
added to the bottom tier, and the only change is one more promotion from
Tier 3 to Tier 2 (nobody can complain about that!) in Season 59. Then
there will be 2 promotions from Tier 2 to Tier 1 in Season 60 (announced
one season in advance). If a new human participant gets added, they'll
start from Tier 3 in Season 60 (and unfortunately only 3 players in Tier
1).

Season will start on weekend of August 16-17, with matches from the
English Premier League and Serie A (I finished second so I get to
choose).

[jlauridsen]

Post by Lléo
I'd like to join again. Your brib... I mean arguments were persuasive
and the cup was fun too! Plus, 30+ seasons (in fact 32 I think?) of
non-league are enough :-)

Now I've got

stuck in my head.

[Werner Pichler]

Post by Futbolmetrix
We currently have 9 teams, but we are optimistic that we can
brib...erm..convince Lleo UPTFC to return to the league. If Lleo
a) Two tiers of 5 teams, 10 matchdays (including inter-tier matches so
Tier 1: The Doctor, Futbolmetrix, milivella, Werner Pichler, MH
Tier 2: Jesper Lauridsen, Mark, Jesus Petry, Blueshirt, Lleo
b) Three tiers of 4 teams, 6 matchdays, but we must include two bots or
B teams
Tier 1: The Doctor, Futbolmetrix, milivella, Werner Pichler
Tier 2: MH, Jesper Lauridsen, Mark, Jesus Petry
Tier 3: Blueshirt, Lleo, Bot 1 (Homer?), Bot 2 (Randy/Lassie/Aggie)
c) Other options?
Of course, the picture changes if others also want to join.

Personally, I’d welcome Lassie and Homer back into
the fold.


Ciao,
Werner

[Jesus Petry]

Post by Werner Pichler

Post by Futbolmetrix
We currently have 9 teams, but we are optimistic that we can
brib...erm..convince Lleo UPTFC to return to the league. If Lleo
a) Two tiers of 5 teams, 10 matchdays (including inter-tier matches so
Tier 1: The Doctor, Futbolmetrix, milivella, Werner Pichler, MH
Tier 2: Jesper Lauridsen, Mark, Jesus Petry, Blueshirt, Lleo
b) Three tiers of 4 teams, 6 matchdays, but we must include two bots or
B teams
Tier 1: The Doctor, Futbolmetrix, milivella, Werner Pichler
Tier 2: MH, Jesper Lauridsen, Mark, Jesus Petry
Tier 3: Blueshirt, Lleo, Bot 1 (Homer?), Bot 2 (Randy/Lassie/Aggie)
c) Other options?
Of course, the picture changes if others also want to join.

Personally, I’d welcome Lassie and Homer back into
the fold.
Ciao,
Werner

Homer, for sure. I prefer Randy to Lassie, but can live with that.

Tchau!
Jesus "There's nothing in the rules that says that a dog can't play!"
Petry

[MH]

Post by Futbolmetrix
We currently have 9 teams, but we are optimistic that we can
brib...erm..convince Lleo UPTFC to return to the  league. If Lleo
a) Two tiers of 5 teams, 10 matchdays (including inter-tier matches so
Tier 1: The Doctor, Futbolmetrix, milivella, Werner Pichler, MH
Tier 2: Jesper Lauridsen, Mark, Jesus Petry, Blueshirt, Lleo
b) Three tiers of 4 teams, 6 matchdays, but we must include two bots or
B teams
Tier 1: The Doctor, Futbolmetrix, milivella, Werner Pichler
Tier 2: MH, Jesper Lauridsen, Mark, Jesus Petry
Tier 3: Blueshirt, Lleo, Bot 1 (Homer?), Bot 2 (Randy/Lassie/Aggie)
c) Other options?
Of course, the picture changes if others also want to join.

I am OK with a or b, with a slight preference for b. Maybe take a month
off before restarting, though?

[Futbolmetrix]

Rather than 4-4-2 with bots, why not let everyone play in the tier they
qualified for - 3-3-4 formation, and use intertier matches between tier
1
and 2? Maybe with extra promotion spots moving to 3-4-3 and maybe later
4-3-3?

I like this option: 3-3-4 in Season 59 (with intertier matches), two
promoted teams from Tier 3 to Tier 2, 1 promoted teams from Tier 2 to
Tier 1, one relegated team in Tiers 1 and 2.

[jlauridsen]

Post by Futbolmetrix
We currently have 9 teams, but we are optimistic that we can
brib...erm..convince Lleo UPTFC to return to the league. If Lleo
a) Two tiers of 5 teams, 10 matchdays (including inter-tier matches so
Tier 1: The Doctor, Futbolmetrix, milivella, Werner Pichler, MH
Tier 2: Jesper Lauridsen, Mark, Jesus Petry, Blueshirt, Lleo

So my 12 point, undefeated, more points than the rest of the tier put
together, season
was all for nothing?

Post by Futbolmetrix
b) Three tiers of 4 teams, 6 matchdays, but we must include two bots or
B teams
Tier 1: The Doctor, Futbolmetrix, milivella, Werner Pichler
Tier 2: MH, Jesper Lauridsen, Mark, Jesus Petry
Tier 3: Blueshirt, Lleo, Bot 1 (Homer?), Bot 2 (Randy/Lassie/Aggie)

Not optimal with two bots in the same tier.

Post by Futbolmetrix
c) Other options?

Rather than 4-4-2 with bots, why not let everyone play in the tier they
qualified for - 3-3-4 formation, and use intertier matches between tier
1
and 2? Maybe with extra promotion spots moving to 3-4-3 and maybe later
4-3-3?